Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FNAK71 PAFC 300131
FWSAER

SPOT FORECAST FOR SOCKEYE...AK-MSS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
531 PM AKDT MON JUN 29 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1710 AKDT ON JUNE 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
GENERAL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP RH VALUES
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FIRE. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH TO THE 60S...WHICH WILL ALLOW RH VALUES
TO DROP INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE EXCELLENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTIER SOUTH
WINDS TUESDAY EVENING. THERE ALSO REMAINS ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN
THE AIRMASS THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST.

SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BUT THEN THE
CHALLENGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND IS THE PATTERN SHIFT WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS OVER THE MAINLAND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER STRETCH OF WARM DAYS TO START ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS IN THAT WOULD LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD
BRING MORE DRY CONDITIONS TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME AS THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCES.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED WET
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS
IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS. ISOLATED WET THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15
                    MPH IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................15 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH.
CWR.................35 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.

$$
FORECASTER...KRAMER
REQUESTED BY...RICH STERRY - SITL
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150629.SOCKE.01/AER


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