Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FNUS71 KAKQ 231151
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Blackwater Marslands...USFWS
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
651 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EST on February 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION
FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND RESULTS IN MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND A RELATIVELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE TODAY AND
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA
SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE REGION. A COOL
AND DRY AIR MASS SURGES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
DROP INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON RAINFALL COVERAGE ON SATURDAY.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds...becoming south 5 to 10 mph early
                    in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Mixing height.......300-2000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)          10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).............65  62  58  55  49  42  36  36
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................61  63  65  67  67  68  67  65
RH..................75  70  65  63  63  61  63  65
20 FT wind dir......SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd......5   6   6   6   6   7   7   6
20 FT wind gust.....15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft).......0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.2
Transp wind dir.....SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.....9   10  10  12  12  12  12  12
LVORI...............4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.................10  14  18  28  27  21  20  16
Chc of pcpn (%).....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Haines index........3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate kt-ft/1000....7   11  15  19  19  18  17  11

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent)...then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Patchy fog after
                    midnight.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 8 mph until early
                    morning...becoming light.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Mixing height.......300-700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).............36  36  37  37  38  40  43  45  49  53  57  55
Weather cov.........                            PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY
Weather type........                            FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG
Tstm cov............
Temp................62  60  59  58  57  56  56  55  55  55  54  53
RH..................70  75  78  80  83  86  86  90  86  86  90  93
20 FT wind dir......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd......6   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.....15          5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft).......0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.....S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.....10  9   9   9   9   8   7   6   6   6   6   6
LVORI...............3   3   4   4   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6
ADI.................7   4   6   6   6   5   5   4   4   4   4   4
Chc of pcpn (%).....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Haines index........3   3   3   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate kt-ft/1000....6   2   2   2   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Patchy fog early
                    in the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Mixing height.......300-1700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 14 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).............54     50     47     43     40     40
Weather cov.........PATCHY PATCHY
Weather type........FOG    FOG    NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov............
Temp................53     56     61     67     71     70
RH..................93     83     75     63     57     61
20 ft wind..........S 4    S 5    S 6    S 6    S 7    S 7
20 ft wind gust.....5      10     15     15     20     20
Mix hgt (ft)........300    300    500    1300   1700   1700
Transport wind......S 6    S 6    S 7    S 10   S 14   S 14
LVORI...............6      4      3      2      2      2
ADI.................4      6      5      18     24     25
Chc of pcpn (%).....10     10     10     10     10     10
Haines index........3      3      4      4      4      3
VRate kt-ft/1000....1      2      3      12     20     21

$$
Forecaster...SCALORA
Requested by...John Ashcraft
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702467.3/AKQ
.EMAIL John_ashcraft@fws.gov


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