Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS73 KAPX 231208
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Black River Rx...MDNR
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
808 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on April 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989) 732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Light southwest winds will quickly turn northerly
this morning, as a cold front crosses the burn site. Pretty strong
cold advection will join thickening clouds to keep temperatures
much cooler than yesterday with higher humidities. No precipitation
will occur with the front.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent).
Temperature.........49 at ignition...Max 51.
RH..................61 percent at ignition...Min 41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds north at 7 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph early
                    in the morning, then shifting to the north 7 to
                    8 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......300-2100 ft AGL increasing to 2800 ft AGL at
                    ignition...otherwise 2800-3100 ft AGL late in
                    the morning.
Transport winds.....Northwest 13 to 16 mph.
Vent rate...........Good /500 at ignition. Max...good /500/.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........69  68  66  67  70  65  66
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............49  49  49  49  49  49  48
RH..............61  56  52  48  46  44  46
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   7   7   8   8
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...2.8 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.16  16  15  14  14  13  13
Haines index....3   3   2   2   2   2   2
VRate/100.......5   5   4   4   4   4   4

$$
Forecaster...Scott Dickson
Requested by...Lee Osterland
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707543.0/APX


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