Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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000
FNUS75 KBOI 051636
FWSBOI

SPOT FORECAST FOR HORSETHIEF...BOISE NF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1036 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1013 MDT ON MAY 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH...

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 1300 MDT
THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW APPROACHING THE GREAT BASIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG - PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL AND OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH. WINDS WILL VARY GREATLY BY
LOCATION ON THE BURN...BUT MAY EASILY BE OVERTAKEN BY THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW. GENERAL WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...THEN SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLY ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT ANOTHER /MORE POTENT/ ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 25
                    PERCENT. THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO PRODUCE
                    OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71 TO 75.
MIN HUMIDITY........32 TO 38 PERCENT.
WIND - EYE LEVEL....EAST 2 TO 4 MPH IN THE MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 18 MPH
ON THE RIDGETOPS THIS AFTERNOON. (WINDS ON
NORTH-FACING SLOPES WILL BE WEST 2 TO 5 MPH
BUT STILL GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHWEST NEAR RIDGETOP.)
MIXING HEIGHT.......10000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH.
VENTILATION INDEX...2000 EXCELLENT.

1200 TEMPS..........AROUND 65 F.
1200 RH.............AROUND 52%.

1500 TEMPS..........AROUND 71 F.
1500 RH.............AROUND 41%.


.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS - MAINLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE
                    OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. THUNDERSTORMS
                    LIKELY TO PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH AND
                    SMALL HAIL.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46 TO 51.
MAX HUMIDITY........68 TO 73 PERCENT.
WIND - EYE LEVEL....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 18 MPH
                    ON THE RIDGETOPS IN THE EVENING. (WINDS ON
                    NORTH-FACING SLOPES WILL BE WEST 2 TO 5 MPH
                    BUT STILL GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHWEST NEAR
                    RIDGETOP.) ALL ASPECTS BECOMING DOWNSLOPE 2
                    TO 6 MPH OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......EAST AROUND 7 MPH.
VENTILATION INDEX...21 POOR.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...SMALL
                    HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63 TO 68.
MIN HUMIDITY........37 TO 42 PERCENT.
WIND - EYE LEVEL....DOWNSLOPE 2 TO 6 MPH IN THE MORNING. ON SOUTH
                    ASPECTS - SOUTHEAST 2 TO 5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    ON NORTH ASPECTS - NORTHEAST 4 TO 7 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.  RIDGETOPS WILL SEE GUSTS TO
                    TO 13 MPH FROM THE NORTHEAST.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.
VENTILATION INDEX...1350 EXCELLENT.

$$
FORECASTER...THIMMESCH
REQUESTED BY...IC
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160505.HORSE.02/BOI


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