Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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799
FNUS75 KBOU 240220
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR CECIL MINE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
820 PM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1949 MDT ON JULY 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED FOR
THE NIGHT...BUT THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STILL
IN PLACE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT
WITH ONLY MODERATE HUMIDITY RECOVERY.

SUNDAY WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
HUMIDITY VALUES BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. THEY WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND MAINLY LIGHT RAINFALL.

.REST OF TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY
                    CLOUDY(50-60%). CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 2400...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.
MAX HUMIDITY........64%.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST/NORTHWEST 2-8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7400 FT AGL UNTIL 2100....DECREASING TO
1500-2500 FT AGL AFTER 2300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN LIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 2100...THEN POOR.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-32%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST 4-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 10 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL UNTIL 0700...INCREASING TO
11400-12400 FT AGL AFTER 1200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1600...THEN
                    FAIR UNTIL 1700...THEN POOR.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN
THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS 5-6 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN
THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR CECIL MINE.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

07/23-20 77 25  5 70 34   S  5  5 3 4  NW 14  7356   W  8 55094  F
07/23-21 76 25  5 66 42   S  5  5 3 4  NW 14  5327   W  8 38728 P
07/23-22 71 23  5 63 48  SW  5  5 3 3  NW 14  4104   W  8 28201 P
07/23-23 71 21  4 59 60  SW  5  5 3 3 NNW 14  2880 WNW  7 18649 P
07/24-00 55 12  2 58 60  SW  5  5 3 1 NNW 13  1657 WNW  7 10070 P
07/24-01 51  2  0 57 59   W  5  5 3 1  NW 12  1581 WNW  7  8777 P
07/24-02 51  3  1 56 59 WNW  5  5 3 1 WNW 10  1506 WNW  6  7564 P
07/24-03 47  4  1 54 64 WNW  5  5 3 1   W  8  1430 WNW  5  6431 P
07/24-04 49  5  1 53 64 WNW  5  5 3 1   W  8  1426 WNW  5  5513 P
07/24-05 49  5  1 52 64 WNW  5  5 4 1   W  8  1421   W  3  4601 P
07/24-06 47  4  1 53 59 WNW  6  6 4 1   W  8  1417   W  3  3694 P
07/24-07 42  4  1 58 51   W  3  3 4 1   W  8  4422   W  5 16418 P
07/24-08 42  4  1 63 46   CALM  1 3 1   W  9  7428 WSW  6 35792 P
07/24-09 32  7  1 69 39   CALM  1 3 1   W 10 10433 WSW  7 61815   G
07/24-10 40  7  1 73 35   CALM  0 3 1   W 10 11668   W  8 77115   G
07/24-11 40  7  1 74 33   CALM  1 4 1   W 10 12904   W  8 94104   G
07/24-12 65 28  8 75 32   E  2  2 4 4   W 10 14140   W  9112783    V
07/24-13 70 28  8 75 32  SE  3  3 4 4   W 10 13504   W  8 95932   G
07/24-14 70 28  8 74 33  SE  5  5 3 4   W 10 12868   W  7 80190   G
07/24-15 78 28  8 73 34  SE  6 10 3 4   W 10 12231 WSW  6 65559   G
07/24-16 75 28  8 72 37  SE  6 10 3 4   W  9 11465 WSW  6 51804  F
07/24-17 75 28  8 72 37  SE  5  5 3 4 WSW  8 10699 WSW  5 39339 P
07/24-18 58 30  9 72 37  NE  5  5 3 4 WSW  7  9932  SW  3 28163 P
07/24-19 58 27  7 69 43   E  5  5 3 4   W  9  7758  SW  5 30181 P
07/24-20 58 25  5 65 53  SE  5  5 3 4 WNW 13  5583 SSW  6 27611 P
07/24-21 58 22  4 62 60   S  5  5 3 3  NW 16  3409 SSW  7 22050 P
07/24-22 58 20  4 60 63   S  5  5 3 3  NW 14  2930 SSW  7 18056 P
07/24-23 58 17  3 58 65 SSW  3  3 3 3 WNW 12  2452   S  7 14356 P
07/25-00 40 12  2 57 64 SSW  3  3 3 2 WNW  8  1974   S  7 10949 P
07/25-01 40  8  2 56 65  SW  3  3 3 1 WNW  8  1828 SSW  7 11190 P
07/25-02 40  4  1 55 66  SW  3  3 3 1 WNW  8  1683  SW  8 11264 P
07/25-03 40  3  1 54 66  SW  5  5 3 1 WNW  8  1537  SW  8 11170 P
07/25-04 40  1  0 52 67  SW  6  6 3 1 WNW  9  1385 WSW  8  9205 P
07/25-05 40  0  0 52 64  SW  7  7 3 1 WNW 10  1233 WSW  7  7429 P
07/25-06 32  3  1 53 61 WSW  7  7 3 1 WNW 12  1082 WSW  6  5841 P
07/25-07 32  3  1 57 58 WSW  6  6 3 1 WNW 13  4167   W  8 29763 P
07/25-08 32  3  1 63 53 WSW  5  5 3 1 WNW 14  7251   W 10 64441   G
07/25-09 32  3  1 68 47 WSW  3  3 3 1 WNW 15 10336 WNW 13109876    V
07/25-10 32  3  1 72 38 SSW  3  3 4 1 WNW 15 11548 WNW 13121662    V
07/25-11 32  3  1 74 31 ESE  3  3 4 1  NW 14 12760  NW 12133219    V
07/25-12 54 24  5 76 25 ENE  3  3 5 3  NW 14 13972  NW 12144545    V
07/25-13 54 24  5 76 25   E  5  5 5 3  NW 13 14452  NW 10133951    V
07/25-14 54 24  5 76 25   E  6  6 4 3  NW 12 14933  NW  9122322    V
07/25-15 54 24  5 76 26   E  7  7 4 3  NW 10 15413  NW  8109658    V
07/25-16 54 24  5 75 28   E  7  7 4 3  NW  7 14429  NW  6 72921   G
07/25-17 54 24  5 74 30 ESE  6  6 4 3  NW  5 13444  NW  3 40241  F
07/25-18 69 21  4 73 33  SE  6  6 4 3  NW  2 12460   CALM 11618 P
07/25-19 69 21  4 70 38 SSE  6  6 4 3 WNW  5  9977   W  5 42022  F
07/25-20 69 21  4 67 45   S  6  6 4 3   W  7  7495  SW  8 56142  F
07/25-21 69 21  4 64 52   S  6  6 4 3 WSW  9  5012   S 13 53981  F
07/25-22 69 21  4 62 56 SSW  6  6 4 3   W  8  3949 SSW 13 45384  F
07/25-23 69 21  4 60 59  SW  5  5 4 3 WNW  8  2886 SSW 14 35250 P
07/26-00 59  6  1 59 60  SW  5  5 4 1 WNW  7  1822  SW 15 23579 P
07/26-01 59  6  1 58 61  SW  5  5 4 1 WNW  6  1568  SW 13 17284 P
07/26-02 59  6  1 58 59 WSW  6  6 5 1   W  6  1314 WSW 10 11963 P
07/26-03 59  6  1 57 59 WSW  6  6 5 1   W  5  1059 WSW  8  7617 P
07/26-04 59  6  1 55 62 WSW  6  6 5 1   W  5  1087   W  9  8267 P
07/26-05 59  6  1 54 63   W  7  7 5 1 WNW  6  1114   W  9  8939 P
07/26-06 60  4  1 55 59   W  7  7 5 1 WNW  6  1142   W  9  9634 P
07/26-07 60  4  1 59 50   W  7  7 5 1 WNW  7  4150   W 10 35987 P
07/26-08 60  4  1 65 39 WNW  7  7 5 1 WNW  8  7158 WNW 10 63740   G
07/26-09 60  4  1 70 32  NW  7  7 5 1  NW  8 10166 WNW 10 92893   G
07/26-10 60  4  1 73 29 NNW  7  7 5 1  NW  9 12046 WNW 10105705    V
07/26-11 60  4  1 74 28   N  6  6 4 1  NW  9 13925 WNW  9117155    V
07/26-12 68 19  4 75 27   N  6  6 4 3  NW  9 15805 WNW  9127242    V
07/26-13 68 19  4 75 28   N  6  6 4 3  NW  8 15685  NW  8105267    V
07/26-14 68 19  4 75 29   N  5  5 4 3 NNW  7 15564  NW  6 83614   G
07/26-15 68 19  4 75 29   N  5  5 4 3 NNW  6 15444  NW  5 62284   G
07/26-16 68 19  4 74 31   N  5  5 4 3 NNW  5 14120  NW  3 46923  F
07/26-17 68 19  4 72 35   N  5  5 3 3 WNW  3 12796  NW  3 33441 P
07/26-18 65 13  3 71 36   N  5  5 3 2 WNW  3 11472 WNW  2 21838 P

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...BARJENBRUCH
REQUESTED BY...FORT COLLINS DISPATCH  KRISTEN FISCHER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20160723.CECIL.02/BOU



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