Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FNUS71 KBUF 252354
FWSBUF

SPOT FORECAST FOR ALLEGANY WILDFIRE...NY DEC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
754 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1935 EDT ON MAY 25.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

THE FIRE SITE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH DECREASING CHANCES OVERNIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL RECOVER INTO THE 80 PERCENT RANGE OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
ON TUESDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RUN ABOUT 15 PERCENT HIGHER THAN TODAY...BOTTOMING
OUT AROUND 55 TO 60 PERCENT.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 63.
MAX HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH...GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SURFACE WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20
MPH EARLY...THEN DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 MPH
OVERNIGHT.

TIME (EDT)          8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............71  68  66  64  63  61  60  64  74  79
WEATHER COV.........CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH     SCH SCH SCH CHC
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW      RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............
TEMP................76  73  71  70  70  68  66  65  64  63
RH..................51  58  63  67  68  72  77  81  84  86
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......13  14  13  12  10  9   9   8   8   8
20 FT WIND GUST.....20  20  15  15  15  15  10  10  10  10
SURFACE WND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
SURFACE WND SPD.....13  14  13  12  10  9   9   8   8   8
SURFACE WND GST.....20  20  15  15  15  15  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX........4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...THEN A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SURFACE WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............79  80  80  81  83  83  83  83  83  83  82  82
WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
TEMP................64  65  66  69  72  74  76  77  78  78  78  77
RH..................87  86  84  79  73  68  63  61  60  60  61  63
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......7   6   5   6   6   7   8   8   9   9   9   9
20 FT WIND GUST.....10              10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15
SURFACE WND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S
SURFACE WND SPD.....7   6   5   6   6   7   8   8   9   9   9   9
SURFACE WND GST.....10              10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4

$$

FORECASTER...CHURCH
REQUESTED BY...DISPATCHER WHITE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150525.ALLEG.01/BUF



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