Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FNUS74 KCRP 212104
FWSCRP

Spot Forecast for Harvey Debris Management 35 Site...TFS
National Weather Service Corpus Christi, TX
404 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1800 CDT on October 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (361) 289-0959, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Very isolated showers continue this afternoon with activity
expected to diminish through the evening and overnight. SE winds
this evening with gusts around 15 mph will also diminish tonight
becoming light out of the south. A cold front will move through
the region Sunday with wind shifts out of the west then north
early to mid Sunday morning. Current timing of the wind shift
looks to be between the hours of 6 AM to 10 AM, with the full
front blowing through by 12 PM. Winds will increase behind the
front with sustained north winds around 15 mph with gusts near 20
mph to possibly 25 mph at times. Isolated to scattered showers
will be possible, especially along the front. An isolated
thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out. Rain chances should
quickly diminish through the late afternoon with drier and cooler
air moving in behind the front. Winds speeds will diminish through
late Sunday night with general light north flow for Monday.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 73.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 12 mph.
Eye level winds.....South winds 5 to 12 mph.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......1300-1500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 21 mph decreasing to 8 to 10 mph
                    late in the night.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY COVER.......PC  MCR PC  PC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
TEMP............83  79  77  77  77  76  76  76  75  74  74  74
RH..............79  88  93  95  95  97  98  98  100 100 100 100
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND DIR..140 140 140 140 140 150 150 160 170 180 190 200
20 FT WIND SPD..12  12  12  12  12  10  9   8   7   6   6   5
20 FT WIND GUST.15  20  20  20  15  15  15  15  15  10  10  10
EYE LVL WND DIR.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
EYE LVL WND DIR.140 140 140 140 140 150 150 160 170 180 190 200
EYE LVL WND SPD.7   7   7   7   7   6   5   5   4   4   4   3
EYE LVL WND GST.15  20  20  20  15  15  15  15  15  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND DIR.140 140 140 140 140 150 150 160 170 180 190 200
TRANSP WIND SPD.20  20  21  20  20  18  16  15  13  10  9   8
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX....2   2   2   3   3   3   2   2   2   3   3   3

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms until late afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming north 5 to 14 mph in the
                    late morning and early afternoon, then
                    increasing to 15 to 16 mph late in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms until late afternoon.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming north 5 to 14 mph in the
                    late morning and early afternoon, then
                    increasing to 15 to 16 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................1 until 0700, then 3 until 1600, then 1.
Mixing height.......1600-3500 ft AGL increasing to 3300-4200 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 6 to 13 mph increasing to north 26 to
                    28 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
WEATHER COV.....    CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV........    CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).10  40  40  40  40  40  40  30  30  30  30  30
TEMP............73  73  74  77  81  83  84  84  85  85  84  83
RH..............100 100 100 92  79  72  64  61  56  52  52  50
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  SW  W   W   NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT WIND DIR..220 240 250 290 310 320 350 000 000 010 010 010
20 FT WIND SPD..3   3   3   3   5   7   9   12  14  15  16  16
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5   5   5   10  10  15  20  20  25  25  25
EYE LVL WND DIR.SW  SW  W   W   NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N
EYE LVL WND DIR.220 240 250 290 310 320 350 000 000 010 010 010
EYE LVL WND SPD.2   2   2   2   3   4   5   7   8   9   10  10
EYE LVL WND GST.5   5   5   5   10  10  15  20  20  25  25  25
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.6 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.9 3.5 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW  SW  W   W   NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N
TRANSP WIND DIR.220 240 250 290 310 320 350 000 000 010 010 010
TRANSP WIND SPD.7   7   6   7   8   13  16  21  24  26  28  28
LAL.............1   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   1   1
HAINES INDEX....3   3   3   4   4   4   3   3   3   4   4   4

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 59.
Max humidity........74 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 12 to 16 mph.
Eye level winds.....North winds 12 to 16 mph.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......1000-2900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 20 to 28 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY COVER.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR CLR CLR CLR CLR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).30  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
TEMP............80  72  70  68  67  66  65  65  64  63  61  60
RH..............52  64  66  67  68  68  67  66  67  68  70  72
20 FT WIND DIR..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT WIND DIR..010 000 010 010 010 010 000 000 000 010 010 000
20 FT WIND SPD..16  16  15  15  14  14  14  13  13  12  12  12
20 FT WIND GUST.25  25  25  25  25  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
EYE LVL WND DIR.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
EYE LVL WND DIR.010 000 010 010 010 010 000 000 000 010 010 000
EYE LVL WND SPD.10  10  10  9   8   8   8   8   8   7   7   7
EYE LVL WND GST.25  25  25  25  25  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.9 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
TRANSP WIND DIR.010 000 010 010 010 010 000 000 000 010 010 000
TRANSP WIND SPD.28  28  26  25  25  24  24  23  22  21  21  20
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 7 to 12 mph.
Eye level winds.....Northeast winds 7 to 12 mph.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......900-2100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 13 to 20 mph shifting to the east 5
                    to 10 mph late in the morning.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
TEMP............59  59  60  66  73  76  79  80  80  80  79  78
RH..............74  72  69  55  42  37  33  33  33  33  35  37
20 FT WIND DIR..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE
20 FT WIND DIR..350 000 000 000 010 010 010 010 020 030 040 040
20 FT WIND SPD..12  9   9   8   8   8   8   8   7   7   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  10  10  10
EYE LVL WND DIR.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE
EYE LVL WND DIR.350 000 000 000 010 010 010 010 020 030 040 040
EYE LVL WND SPD.7   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4
EYE LVL WND GST.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 1.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E
TRANSP WIND DIR.350 040 040 050 050 050 050 050 060 070 070 080
TRANSP WIND SPD.20  14  14  13  13  10  8   7   6   5   5   6
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX....3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

$$
Forecaster...BARRON
Requested by...Garry Barney
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1717312.10/CRP
.EMAIL gbarney@tfs.tamu.edu


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