Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FNUS71 KCTP 271018
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for SGL 100 HO...PA GAME COMMISSION
National Weather Service State College PA
618 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on April 27.

If conditions become unrepresentative...
contact the National Weather Service in State College.

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front will push through this evening, accompanied by a
round of showers or thunderstorms.

High pressure will build into the commonwealth Friday, bringing
fair weather and light winds.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent)...then becoming
                    mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds...becoming south 6 to
                    9 mph with gusts up to 20 mph in the late
                    morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......600-2000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 17 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4...or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........97  97  89  74  66  59  45  38  39  40  39
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............54  56  60  63  67  70  72  74  76  77  78
RH..............100 93  84  75  68  61  57  53  50  47  43
20 FT wind dir..E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..2   2   3   5   5   6   6   7   7   6   6
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.0
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S
Transp wind spd.9   9   8   8   8   9   10  13  15  16  17
Haines index....3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). A chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the
                    evening...then showers with thunderstorms
                    likely in the evening. A chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms late in the evening.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 1900...then 16-25 strikes
                    until 2000...then >25 strikes until 2300...then
                    16-25 strikes until 2400...then 9-15 strikes
                    until 0100...then 1-8 strikes until 0200...then
                    No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 53.
Max humidity........87 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 8 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms until early morning.
Mixing height.......700-2600 ft AGL...increasing to 2800-2900 ft
                    AGL late.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 16 mph...becoming west 20 to 21
                    mph after midnight.
Haines Index........3 to 4...or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........53  78  90  89  86  85  77  60  51  52  55  57
Weather cov.....CHC LKY DEF DEF DEF CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC
LAL.............2   4   5   5   5   4   3   2   1   1   1   1
Temp............74  71  67  65  64  62  61  60  59  58  56  55
RH..............51  59  68  75  78  87  84  84  83  83  86  86
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.20  20  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.8 2.3 2.6 2.8 2.9
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.16  15  13  12  10  10  13  16  20  21  21  20
Haines index....4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...Fitzgerald
Requested by...Eric Erdman
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707819.0/CTP
.EMAIL eerdman@pa.gov


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