Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 301050
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR WILDLAND FIRE TRAINING CAMP 20150530...PA DCNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
650 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0640 EDT ON MAY 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...

THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE DISTRICT
WILL HELP TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE AS A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGION. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS FRONT WILL SAG INTO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT WITH...LINGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. A WELL-DEFINED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...THEN TRACK EAST ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR SUNDAY...MAINTAINING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
AGAIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    LIKELY LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 83.
MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 9 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 7
                    TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1200...THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL
                    1400...THEN 9-15 STRIKES UNTIL 1600...THEN
                    16-25 STRIKES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3600-5000 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............57  57  57  56  55  54  56  60  62  65  71  74
WEATHER COV.........                        SCH SCH CHC CHC LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE........                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                        SCH SCH CHC CHC LKY LKY
TEMP................66  67  69  71  73  75  77  79  81  82  82  82
RH..................91  89  85  79  74  69  64  59  55  54  53  52
20 FT WIND DIR......NE  NE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......10  9   5   7   8   9   10  10  12  12  12  12
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15          10  15  15  20  20  20  20  20
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.9 4.2 5.0 4.9 4.3 3.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.....S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....12  12  12  13  13  14  14  14  14  14  15  15
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   3   3   4   4
HAINES INDEX........3   2   2   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   3   3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN
                    THE EVENING. SHOWERS LIKELY. A CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.
MAX HUMIDITY........92 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
LAL.................>25 STRIKES UNTIL 0200...THEN 16-25 STRIKES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600-3300 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 700-1100 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 17 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............74  73  73  71  68  64  60  74  76  76  76  77
WEATHER COV.........LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
TEMP................80  78  76  74  72  71  69  68  67  66  65  64
RH..................56  60  63  68  74  77  79  81  84  87  89  92
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   SW  S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W
20 FT WIND SPD......12  12  12  12  10  10  9   9   9   8   8   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....20  20  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......3.3 3.0 2.7 2.2 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.....S   SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....16  17  17  15  12  9   9   9   9   9   9   8
LAL.................4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE
                    AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................16-25 STRIKES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5900-7300 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO SOUTH 15
                    TO 21 MPH LATE.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............80  82  84  81  81  84  90  95  98  98  98  98
WEATHER COV.........LKY LKY OCL OCL OCL OCL OCL OCL OCL OCL OCL OCL
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCT SCT SCT SCT
TEMP................63  62  64  65  67  69  71  73  75  75  72  69
RH..................96  99  93  83  74  66  61  55  50  49  52  56
20 FT WIND DIR......W   NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT WIND SPD......7   7   7   7   8   8   8   8   8   8   9   9
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.6 0.6 0.8 1.3 2.2 3.3 4.7 6.2 7.1 7.3 6.9 5.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....7   6   5   3   3   5   6   8   10  15  20  21
LAL.................5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
HAINES INDEX........4   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4

$$
FORECASTER...WFO CTP/LAMBERT
REQUESTED BY...MATT REED
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150530.WILDL.01/CTP



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