Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FNUS71 KCTP 241021
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for SGL 80 Boyer Tract...PA GAME COMMISSION
National Weather Service State College PA
521 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EST on February 24.

If conditions become unrepresentative...
contact the National Weather Service in State College.

.DISCUSSION...
A weak cold front across the northern tier of Pennsylvania
will be the focus for some showers early today before it
retreats back to the north as a warm front during the
day today. Patchy fog will form early this morning within
the warm and moist airmass over the region.

Expect another extremely warm and generally dry day for
late February with light wind this morning becoming
southerly and freshening to 10 to 15 mph for the late
morning and afternoon. Temperatures in the 70s at most
locations this afternoon will approach, or exceed all-time
record highs for the month.

Strengthening low pressure will move northeast across
the Upper Great Lakes late Friday into early Saturday.
southerly winds will freshen to 10 to 15 mph by the late
morning hours Friday, with gusts around 20 mph.

The cold front trailing south from this low will bring
a few rounds of moderate to heavy rain showers later
Friday night, and perhaps even a few strong to potentially
severe thunderstorms with gusty westerly winds and small
hail during the day Saturday.

Gusty west wind of 35 to 45 mph will develop in the wake
of the front Saturday into Saturday night.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers early in the morning. Patchy fog
                    early in the morning.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds...becoming south 6 to
                    7 mph with gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......100-1400 ft AGL...increasing to 2300-3700 ft
                    AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 10 mph...increasing to 15 to 22 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4...or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........66  64  63  62  60  58  61
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............62  65  67  68  70  71  69
RH..............75  70  68  65  61  59  61
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..3   5   5   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.15  15  20  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 2.3 3.1 3.5 3.7 3.4 2.5
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.10  15  18  21  22  22  20
Haines index....3   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). A chance of
                    showers.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 53.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 8 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph
                    late.
Mixing height.......300-1400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 14 to 17 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 4...or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........65  53  55  57  59  61  64  66  70  71  74  78
Weather cov.....    CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2
Temp............65  62  58  57  57  56  56  56  55  55  54  54
RH..............70  81  93  93  93  96  93  93  96  96  100 96
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.17  15  15  15  16  16  16  16  15  15  14  14
Haines index....4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). A chance of showers
                    early in the morning...then showers and a
                    slight chance of thunderstorms.
LAL.................No Tstms until 0700...then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9 to 14 mph with gusts up to 30
                    mph...becoming west 16 to 17 mph with gusts up
                    to 35 mph late. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......700-2100 ft AGL...increasing to 2700-3400 ft
                    AGL late.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 23 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 3...or very low.

TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........79  82  91  91  91  91  100 100 100 100 79  93
Weather cov.....CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
LAL.............4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4
Temp............53  53  54  54  56  59  61  64  61  59  56  54
RH..............100 100 96  96  93  83  78  70  70  67  69  66
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..6   6   7   7   10  10  10  10  11  13  14  14
20 FT wind gust.20  20  20  20  30  30  25  30  30  35  35  35
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.2 3.4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  W   W
Transp wind spd.15  15  15  15  15  17  21  23  23  22  21  22
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...WFO-CTP/Lambert
Requested by...Steven Bernardi
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702762.0/CTP
.EMAIL sbernardi@pa.gov



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