National Weather Service Text Product Display

Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Versions: 1 2 3
000
FNUS71 KCTP 211054
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR WELCH RIDGE II...PA BUREAU OF FORESTRY/DCNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
654 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MAY 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH LATE WEEK. ALONG WITH THE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
OCCASIONALLY WET WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
BECOMING LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. A
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
                    IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........70 AT IGNITION...MAX 82.
RH..................80 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 57 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 6 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9
                    MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1100...THEN 9-15 STRIKES UNTIL
                    1400...THEN 16-25 STRIKES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5000-5800 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 16 MPH...INCREASING TO 17 TO 18
                    MPH LATE.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............59  60  61  62  62  62  63  64
WEATHER COV.........PTY SCH SCH SCH SCT SCT SCT SCT
WEATHER TYPE........FOG RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............    SCH SCH SCH SCT SCT SCT SCT
TEMP................70  72  74  76  78  79  79  79
RH..................80  76  70  64  59  58  57  57
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......6   7   8   9   9   9   9   8
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  15  15  15  15  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......3.8 5.0 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....13  14  15  15  15  16  17  18
LAL.................1   3   3   3   4   4   4   4
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 63.
RH..................MAX 89 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
LAL.................16-25 STRIKES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300-6100 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 600-2500 FT
                    AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 20 MPH...DECREASING TO 10 TO 13 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............65  65  66  67  69  70  72  74  75  75  75  74
WEATHER COV.........SCT SCT CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............SCT SCT CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
TEMP................77  76  75  73  72  70  69  68  66  65  64  63
RH..................59  61  64  65  67  70  73  75  78  82  85  89
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......8   8   9   8   8   7   7   7   6   6   6   5
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......6.0 6.1 5.7 4.3 2.5 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   SW  W   W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....20  20  18  16  14  12  10  10  10  12  12  13
LAL.................4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 80.
RH..................MIN 51 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
LAL.................16-25 STRIKES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-2600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3700-5600 FT
                    AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 23 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............74  73  73  73  73  72  72  72  71  72  72  73
WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
TEMP................64  65  66  69  71  74  75  77  78  79  79  80
RH..................87  85  84  76  69  63  60  57  54  53  52  51
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......5   6   6   8   9   10  12  12  12  12  13  13
20 FT WIND GUST.....        10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  20  20
MIX HGT (KFT).......1.3 1.8 2.6 3.7 4.7 5.5 5.3 4.9 4.5 5.0 5.5 5.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....14  16  17  17  17  17  17  18  18  21  22  23
LAL.................4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

$$
FORECASTER...WFO CTP/GARTNER
REQUESTED BY...JOHN WAMBAUGH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130521.WELCH.01/CTP
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
