Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FNUS73 KDMX 281458
FWSDMX

SPOT FORECAST FOR BRUSH PILES THORN VALLEY SAVANNA...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
858 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CST ON JANUARY 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

AN INITIAL OBSERVATION AT IGNITION AND A MID BURN OBSERVATION ARE REQUIRED...
PLEASE RELAY THEM TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR EACH PRESCRIBED BURN.

.DISCUSSION...

LOW CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WARM SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OCCASIONALLY OVER 25
MPH. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE MID 50S WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 50 PERCENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........40 AT IGNITION...MAX 52.
RH..................70 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 56 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 17 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 16 TO 23 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 12 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (4300-39900 KNOT-FT).
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 17 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 17 MPH.

TIME (CST)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........42  44  45  47  44  50  55
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
TEMP............40  45  49  51  52  50  47
RH..............70  60  56  54  54  61  68
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..17  17  16  15  14  13  10
20 FT WIND GUST.25  25  25  20  20  15
EYE LVL WND DIR.SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
EYE LVL WND SPD.12  12  11  11  10  9   7
EYE LVL WND GST.25  25  25  20  20  15
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.2 2.1 2.0
MIXNG WIND DIR..SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
MIXNG WIND SPD..22  22  23  22  21  16  12
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5   4   4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 34.
RH..................MAX 73 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....BREEZY. WEST WINDS 7 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO
                    NORTHWEST 21 TO 29 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3700 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 1 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
                    AROUND 12 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    INCREASING TO NORTHWEST 22 TO 31 MPH LATE IN
                    THE EVENING INCREASING TO 32 TO 33 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (1500-42100 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO
                    EXCELLENT (78400-110100 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. WEST WINDS 7 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO
                    NORTHWEST 21 TO 29 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........71     76     81     95     99     99
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............47     46     45     43     42     40
RH..............68     68     70     73     73     73
20 FT WIND......S 9    SW 8   W 10   NW 21  NW 26  NW 26
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     15     35     35     35
EYE LEVEL WIND..S 6    SW 6   W 7    NW 15  NW 18  NW 18
EYE LVL WND GST.10     10     15     35     35     35
MIX HGT (FT)....1900   1100   1400   2900   3200   3500
MIXNG WIND......SE 7   SE 1   E 12   NW 31  NW 33  NW 33
HAINES INDEX....3      2      2      3      2      2

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 39.
RH..................MIN 64 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WINDY. NORTHWEST WINDS 21 TO 30 MPH DECREASING
                    TO AROUND 18 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 26 TO 35 MPH DECREASING TO 24 TO 25
                    MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT (49500-118100 KNOT-FT).
WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. NORTHWEST WINDS 21 TO 30 MPH DECREASING
                    TO AROUND 18 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
SKY (%).........98        64        30        21
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............37        35        37        36
RH..............72        69        64        64
20 FT WIND......NW 29G40  NW 29G40  NW 26G35  NW 24G35
EYE LEVEL WIND..NW 21G40  NW 21G40  NW 18G35  NW 17G35
MIX HGT (FT)....3900      3100      3300      3100
MIXNG WIND......NW 35     NW 35     NW 31     NW 26
HAINES INDEX....2         2         3         5

$$
FORECASTER...SKOW
REQUESTED BY...JIM KRIZMAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150128.BRUSH.01/DMX



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