Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FNUS73 KILX 281354
FWSILX

SPOT FORECAST FOR MEREDOSIA HP...IL DNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN, IL
854 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON MARCH 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TODAY...DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN POOR SMOKE DISPERSAL FOR BURNS
TODAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE NIGHT...AND
WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH ON SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SHOWERS...
WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 9 AM AND 1 PM. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...ONCE THE RAIN EXITS THE AREA.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........37 AT IGNITION...MAX 45.
RH..................49 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 33 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH
                    IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...
                    BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4600-5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 2 TO 8 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5405-26564 MPH-FT).

TIME (CDT)          9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).............51     37     19     12     9
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP................31     37     42     45     44
RH..................63     49     38     33     35
20 FT WIND..........E 4    SE 5   E 4    SE 3   SE 3
20 FT WIND GUST.....5             5      5      5
EYE LEVEL WIND......E 3    SE 4   E 3    SE 2   SE 2
EYE LEVEL GUST......5             5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)........2500   4200   5400   5300   4600
TRANSPORT WIND......E 6    E 3    E 2    E 3    SE 6
CWR.................0      0      0      0      0
LAL.................M      M      M      M      M
HAINES INDEX........4      5      5      5      5
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...16     16     12     19     27

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 31.
RH..................MAX 66 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300-4100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-1700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 13 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0-28404 MPH-FT).

TIME (CDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............8      8      9      19     26     38
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP................43     39     37     35     34     33
RH..................38     46     48     52     56     63
20 FT WIND..........SE 4   SE 4   SE 4   SE 5   S 5    S 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....5      5      10     10     10     15
EYE LEVEL WIND......SE 3   SE 3   SE 3   SE 4   S 4    S 4
EYE LEVEL GUST......5      5      10     10     10     15
MIX HGT (FT)........4100   2900   1700   600    BLW100 BLW100
TRANSPORT WIND......SE 7   S 8    S 9    S 10   S 10   S 13
CWR.................0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.................M      M      M      M      M      M
HAINES INDEX........5      5      5      5      5      5
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...28     25     16     6      0      0

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 55.
RH..................MIN 54 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 30 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
LAL.................
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1000-2200 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 23 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 26
                    TO 32 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
                    AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 16 TO 22 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (52554 MPH-FT) IN THE MORNING...
                    GOOD (70150 MPH-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............50     56     72     87     87     71
WEATHER COV.........       LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP................32     34     42     49     54     54
RH..................66     66     60     56     54     64
20 FT WIND..........S 7    S 10   S 11   S 10   SW 9   SW 8
20 FT WIND GUST.....20     30     30     30     30     25
EYE LEVEL WIND......S 5    S 7    S 8    S 8    SW 7   SW 6
EYE LEVEL GUST......20     30     30     30     30     25
MIX HGT (FT)........200    700    1400   2100   2000   1400
TRANSPORT WIND......S 15   S 20   S 26   SW 31  SW 30  SW 22
CWR.................0      60     60     60     50     50
LAL.................M      M      M      M      M      M
HAINES INDEX........4      4      3      2      2      2
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...2      13     38     65     61     30

$$
FORECASTER...GEELHART
REQUESTED BY...GEROFF
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150328.MERED.01/ILX






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