Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3
000
FNUS74 KLZK 201357
FWSLZK

Spot Forecast for 515 Regens...USFS
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
757 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CST on November 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service Immediately.

.DISCUSSION...
Dry weather is expected for the week ahead. Southerly winds will
increase today as a high pressure system retreats eastward.
Minimum RH levels will decrease to near 30 percent this afternoon.
Another cold front will be moving into the area tomorrow, bringing
a wind shirt.

.TODAY...

Temperature.........51 at ignition...Max 62.
RH..................46 percent at ignition...Min 31 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 10 mph increasing to 13 to 15 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......Winds south at 6 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South winds 5 to 7 mph.
LVORI...............1 early in the morning.
Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Dispersion..........5 increasing to 18 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 31 late in the morning increasing
                    to 38 in the afternoon decreasing to 30.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.
Eye level winds.....South winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 3500 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 4515 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............51  56  59  61  62  61  58
RH..............46  38  34  32  31  32  35
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.14  15  15  15  15  15  15
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.TONIGHT...

Temperature.........Min 38.
RH..................Max 94 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 15 mph.
Stability class.....D.
20 Foot Winds.......Light winds.
LVORI...............1.
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Dispersion..........7 early in the evening.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Eye level winds.....Light winds.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 1600 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 2565 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............53  50  48  46  45  44  43  42  41  40  40  39
RH..............43  48  54  57  60  62  68  70  72  74  80  81
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Eye lvl wnd dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Eye lvl wnd spd.2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Eye lvl wnd gst.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.15  14  14  13  12  12  12  10  10  10  10  10
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.TUESDAY...

Temperature.........Max 63.
RH..................Min 48 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 12 mph.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon.
LVORI...............1 early in the morning.
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Dispersion..........12 increasing to 20 in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 3200 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 4215 ft MSL.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............38  38  39  44  49  54  58  61  62  63  62  58
RH..............88  92  94  85  73  64  58  52  49  48  48  52
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.
Eye lvl wnd dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Eye lvl wnd gst.
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W   NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.10  10  10  10  12  12  12  10  8   8   8   10
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

$$
Forecaster...D Koch
Requested by...Tim Nutley
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1719017.0/LZK
.EMAIL tnutey@fs.fed.us



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.