Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FNUS74 KLZK 311405
FWSLZK

SPOT FORECAST FOR DECKARD MT SOUTH...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
805 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 CST ON JANUARY 31.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

JESSIEVILLE RAWS STATION HAS SHOWN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING SO
I SUSPECT THAT WINDS WILL BE A BIT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT THE BURN
SITE EARLY. HOWEVER SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE DAY SO EXPECT WIND DIRECTION WILL BE CONSISTENTLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS A
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL RH VALUES WILL ALSO
BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH AFTERNOON RH LEVELS EXPECTED TO DROP ONLY INTO
THE 45-50 PERCENT RANGE AS A RESULT. THE INCOMING SYSTEM PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE STATE...BUT RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF AT
THE BURN SITE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH A BETTER PART
OF THE DAY SUNDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........49 AT IGNITION...MAX 54.
RH..................46 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 42 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS.
TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTHEAST 8 TO 12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).......BECOMING 2600 FT MSL.
MIXING HEIGHT (AGL).......BECOMING 1763 FT AGL.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 3 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING
                    SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.

TIME (CST)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............49  51  52  54  53  52
RH..............46  45  43  42  44  47
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD..5   5   5   5   5   6
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5   5   5   5   7
EYE LVL WND DIR.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
EYE LVL WND SPD.3   3   3   3   3   4
EYE LVL WND GST.3   3   3   3   3   4
TRANSP WIND DIR.S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.10  10  12  12  12  12
CHC OF PCPN (%).10  10  10  10  10  10

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 45.
RH..................MAX 96 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 10 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LVORI...............1.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE....RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
TEMP............51  50  50  49  48  47  46  46  46  46  45  45
RH..............50  53  56  59  63  66  71  74  78  82  87  91
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..6   6   6   6   6   6   6   7   7   7   8   8
20 FT WIND GUST.7   7   7   7   7   7   11  11  14  14  18  18
EYE LVL WND DIR.SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
EYE LVL WND SPD.4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5
EYE LVL WND GST.4   4   4   4   4   4   6   6   8   8   11  11
LVORI...........1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
CHC OF PCPN (%).60  60  60  60  60  60  90  90  90  90  90  90

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 53.
RH..................MIN 65 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING
                    BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST 6 TO 9
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 10 MPH.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY MC  MC
WEATHER COV.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE....RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
TEMP............45  46  47  48  48  49  50  51  52  52  50  48
RH..............96  95  93  91  90  88  87  79  71  65  66  66
20 FT WIND DIR..S   SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD..9   9   9   9   9   9   9   9   9   9   10  10
20 FT WIND GUST.14  11  9   9   9   9   9   11  11  11  14  14
EYE LVL WND DIR.S   SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW
EYE LVL WND SPD.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6
EYE LVL WND GST.8   6   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   8   8
CHC OF PCPN (%).90  90  90  90  90  90  50  50  50  50  50  50

$$
FORECASTER...C DALTON
REQUESTED BY...USFS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150131.DECKA.01/LZK






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