Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FNUS72 KMFL 021447
FWSMFL

SPOT FORECAST FOR HANSEN...BIG CYPRESS NATIONAL PRESERVE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1047 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1029 EDT ON JULY 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS
INTERIOR/WESTERN BROWARD COUNTY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR
ALLEY. THESE STORMS WERE HOLDING TOGETHER...AND AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WAS BEING PUSHED OUT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
STORMS...WITH OTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF
THE COMPLEX. THE STORMS THEMSELVES APPEAR TO BE HEADED TO THE
NORTH OF THE WILDFIRE...BUT ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTHWEST COULD PUSH STORMS INTO THE AREA AROUND NOON. IT IS
POSSIBLE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THESE STORMS COULD ALSO MOVE
INTO THE WILDFIRE AREA AROUND NOON...AND LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD
GET NEAR THE AREA IN THE NEXT 30-45 MINUTES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY PRODUCE STRONG TO
SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 6 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY.
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 94.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 49 PERCENT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1400...THEN 4 UNTIL 1700...THEN 3.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400-5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 8 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....25...DECREASING TO 15 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............3.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P
SKY (%).........38  38  38  54  54  54  59  59  59  54  54  54
WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT NUM NUM NUM NUM SCT SCT SCT SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV........SCT SCT NUM NUM NUM NUM SCT SCT SCT SCH SCH SCH
TEMP............90  92  94  94  93  91  86  84  82  81  79  78
RH..............60  55  50  49  50  55  63  69  74  77  83  86
20 FT WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD..4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.4 3.4 3.4 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 2.3 2.3 2.3
MIXNG WIND DIR..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
MIXNG WIND SPD..7   7   7   8   8   8   6   6   6   5   5   5
DISPERSION IDX..27  27  27  23  23  23  15  15  15  6   6   6
LVORI...........2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   4   4   4
CHC OF PCPN (%).30  30  60  60  60  60  50  50  50  20  20  20
LAL.............2   2   2   4   4   4   3   3   3   2   2   2

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 75.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 98 PERCENT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2300...THEN 1.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2300 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 200 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....5.
LVORI...............6.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 94.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 51 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-3400 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4000-5000 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 2 TO 7 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....10...INCREASING TO 18 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............3.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...KENNEDY
REQUESTED BY...TURNBO
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150702.HANSE.02/MFL


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