Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FNUS76 KMFR 280550
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR PONY...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1050 PM PDT WED JUL 27 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1728 PDT ON JULY 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR ARE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL HAVE THE ADDITION
OF WEAK AFTERNOON AND EVENING INSTABILITY WITH CUMULUS BUILDUPS
AND THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. RIDGE TOP HUMIDITY
RECOVERY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MODERATE. A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. IT WILL SHIFT
INSTABILITY EAST OF THE SITE BUT IT WILL BRING SLIGHT COOLING AND
ALSO SLIGHTLY STRONGER AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS.


.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....105.
MIN HUMIDITY........12 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....UPSLOPE WINDS 2 TO 4 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 8 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8700 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........EAST AROUND 7 MPH BECOMING NORTH 15 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH BRIEFLY BECOMING
                    NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....65.
MAX HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE WINDS 1 TO 3 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH BECOMING EAST AROUND 6 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH
                    BECOMING NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY THEN MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....105.
MIN HUMIDITY........12 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....UPSLOPE WINDS 2 TO 4 MPH BECOMING 3 TO 6 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8800 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........EAST AROUND 7 MPH BECOMING NORTH AROUND 18 MPH.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................2.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST 8 TO 13
                    MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...WEYGAND
REQUESTED BY...DAMON MCCARTNEY
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20160727.PONY_.03/MFR



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