Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FNUS72 KMHX 251314
FWSMHX

Spot Forecast for C 37 Hunter Creek...USFS
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
814 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EST on February 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION...
Warm temperatures ahead of the approaching cold front. Cold front
will push through the area early Monday morning. High pressure will
build into the area Tuesday into Wednesday. Another storm system
will impact the area late Wednesday into Thursday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers late.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 14 mph...increasing to 15 to 20 mph
                    with gusts to 25 mph mid to late morning thru afternoon.
Mixing height.......Max 4300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 13 to 21 mph, increasing to 20 to 26
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Max 114194 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 8.
ADI.................Max 86.
Haines index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.04 to 30.11 inHg.

TIME (EST)         9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)............44  43  41  38  36  39  44  46  50
Weather cov........                            SCH SCH
Weather type.......                            RW  RW
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............69  72  75  77  78  79  79  79  76
RH.................81  76  69  64  60  60  60  60  66
20 FT wind dir.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd.....13  15  16  16  16  15  13  12  10
20 FT wind gust....20  25  25  25  25  25  20  20  15
Mix hgt (kft)......1.7 2.4 3.0 3.7 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 3.3
Transp wind dir....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd....21  24  26  26  26  25  24  22  20
LVORI..............3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI................53  58  71  81  86  83  78  71  57
Haines index.......3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate mph-ft/1000..34  57  80  97  114 108 102 91  64
Stability class....F   E   E   C   C   C   C   C   C

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of showers early
                    in the evening, then a chance of showers in the
                    evening. Showers likely after midnight.
Min temperature.....Around 61.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 9 mph until early morning,
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......Min 300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 17 mph, decreasing to 7 to 9 mph
                    after midnight.
Vent Rate...........Min 1724 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 6.
ADI.................Min 3.
Haines index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.05 to 30.09 inHg.

TIME (EST)         6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)............59  63  67  74  77  79  82  84  86  90  92  92
Weather cov........SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type.......RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............74  71  70  68  67  66  66  65  64  64  63  63
RH.................69  76  78  84  87  87  87  90  90  90  93  90
20 FT wind dir.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   NW
20 FT wind spd.....9   8   7   5   5   4   4   4   3   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust....15  15  10          5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)......2.4 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7
Transp wind dir....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   SW
Transp wind spd....17  15  13  10  8   8   8   8   7   7   7   9
LVORI..............3   3   4   4   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6
ADI................23  17  11  7   5   5   5   5   3   3   3   4
Haines index.......3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate mph-ft/1000..42  23  14  7   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   6
Stability class....C   C   C   C   C   B   D   D   D   D   D   D

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Showers likely early in the morning,
                    then a chance of showers in the morning.
                    Showers in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........73 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 6 mph early in the
                    morning, becoming light, then becoming
                    northeast around 5 mph late.
Mixing height.......Max 2000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northeast 12 to 16 mph.
Vent Rate...........Max 29324 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 5.
ADI.................Max 55.
Haines index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.09 to 30.19 inHg.

TIME (EST)         6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%)............93     95     97     97     97     97
Weather cov........LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type.......RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............62     62     64     65     65     65
RH.................93     90     81     75     75     73
20 ft wind.........NW 4   NW 4   N 3    NE 3   NE 3   NE 3
20 ft wind gust....5      5      5      5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft).......1100   1200   1700   1900   1800   1600
Transport wind.....NW 12  N 14   NE 13  N 13   N 14   NE 15
LVORI..............5      4      3      3      3      3
ADI................16     27     39     44     49     55
Haines index.......2      2      2      2      2      2
VRate mph-ft/1000..13     17     21     24     25     24
Stability class....D      D      D      D      D      D

$$
Forecaster...Frederick
Requested by...David Nelson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1802484.1/MHX
.EMAIL Davidnelson@fs.fed.us



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