Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FNUS72 KMLB 181142
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for TBSF...Florida Forest Service
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
642 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EST on January 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Very cold morning temperatures coupled with a
strong, low-height subsidence inversion will keep the mixing
layer below 2000 feet through this morning, and around 2000 feet
or a little higher all afternoon. Expect smoke plumes to cap and
spread out at fairly low heights for early to mid morning
ignitions.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 50.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 7 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL slowly increasing to 2000-2200 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 14 to 16 mph.
Dispersion index....15-25 early in the morning increasing to 35 through
                    early afternoon, then decreasing back down to 20
                    a little before sunset.
LVORI...............1-2.

TIME (EST)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........0   0   0   0   0   0   0   5   5   5
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............31  35  38  42  45  49  50  49  48  46
RH..............53  50  46  43  40  37  38  42  45  51
20 FT wind dir..NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..8   9   9   9   9   9   9   9   8   7
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 1.2 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.4
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.13  14  16  15  14  14  13  13  12  10
Dispersion idx..16  23  31  33  34  34  34  33  31  20
LVORI...........2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 29.
Max humidity........75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......300-900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 2 to 7 mph shifting to the southwest 1 to
                    2 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Dispersion index....7 decreasing to 1 in the late evening and
                    overnight.
LVORI...............3 increasing to 4 late in the evening.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........5      0      0      0      0      0
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............43     40     38     36     34     32
RH..............57     65     67     70     74     78
20 ft wind......N 5    N 2    NW 2   NW 3   NW 3   NW 2
20 ft wind gust.                     5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....900    300    300    300    300    300
Transport wind..NE 7   N 2    W 1    SW 1   SW 1   SW 1
Dispersion idx..11     2      1      1      1      1
LVORI...........2      3      3      4      4      4

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......300-2200 ft AGL increasing to 1600-2300 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West around 1 mph shifting to the northwest 3
                    to 5 mph in the morning, then shifting to the
                    south around 2 mph in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....6.
LVORI...............4 decreasing to 2 in the late morning and
                    afternoon.

TIME (EST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........0         3         3         4
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............32        43        55        60
RH..............80        51        38        33
20 FT wind......NW 3G5    NW 3G5    N 3G5     N 3G5
Mix hgt (ft)....300       500       1600      2200
Transport wind..W 1       NW 5      W 2       SW 2
Dispersion idx..1         3         6         10
LVORI...........4         2         2         2

$$
Forecaster...Cristaldi
Requested by...Jason Longfellow
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1800344.3/MLB
.EMAIL jason.longfellow@freshfromflorida.com


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