Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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068
FNUS73 KMQT 110902
FWSMQT

Spot Forecast for Dutch Mill...USFS
National Weather Service Marquette MI
502 AM EDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on October 11.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will remain across Upper Michigan
through tonight. There will be a few clouds early this morning
at the fire site, but otherwise skies will be clear through tonight.
Temperatures this afternoon will rise into the lower 60s and min
humidity will be lower than Tuesday afternoon, dropping into the 37
to 40 percent range. Winds will be from the east with gusts as high
as 15 mph this afternoon. Expect more cloud cover on Thursday with
similar temperatures but much higher min humidity only down to 60
percent. Winds will be lighter and more from the south instead
of the east. The next chance of widespread and wetting rain will
not arrive until late Friday afternoon.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........A few clouds this morning, then sunny.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....44 at ignition...Max 62.
Min humidity........69 percent at ignition...Min 39 percent.
33-foot winds.......Winds northeast winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to
                    the east in the afternoon.
20-foot winds.......Northeast winds 4 to 8 mph shifting to the east
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 15 to 21 mph.
Ventilation index...Fair (148) at ignition. Max...good (506).
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL at ignition...increasing to 2500-3900
                    ft AGL in the afternoon, then decreasing to 1200
                    ft AGL early in the evening.
Haines Index........4...or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM
Sky (%).........20  20  13  7   1   1   1   1   1   1
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Temp............44  50  55  58  60  61  61  61  57  53
RH..............69  57  52  48  44  41  39  40  46  57
33 ft wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E
33 ft wind spd..10  10  10  10  10  10  10  9   9   9
20 ft wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E
20 ft wind spd..8   8   8   8   8   8   8   7   7   7
Wind gust.......    11  11  11  11  11  11  10  10  10
VIndx kt-ft/100.148 239 358 469 498 506 506 454 373 225
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE
Transp wind spd.21  21  20  18  16  15  15  15  17  21
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 1.3 2.1 2.9 3.6 3.9 3.9 3.5 2.5 1.2
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Min 39.
Max humidity........Max 100 percent.
33-foot winds.......Southeast winds 4 to 9 mph.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds up to 7 mph.
Transport winds.....South 21 to 25 mph.
Ventilation index...Poor (0).
Mixing height.......0-300 ft AGL.
Haines Index........3 to 4...or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM 7AM
Sky (%).........1   1   2   2   5   8   11  15  18  22  26  29
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Temp............49  46  44  43  42  42  42  42  42  41  40  39
RH..............70  79  87  93  96  96  97  99  100 100 100 100
33 ft wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
33 ft wind spd..8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   6   6   6
20 ft wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 ft wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5
Wind gust.......7   7   7
VIndx kt-ft/100.50  0   16  55  55  55  53  53  50  50  21  9
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S
Transp wind spd.23  24  25  25  25  25  24  24  23  23  22  21
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Max 62.
Min humidity........Min 64 percent.
33-foot winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 4 to 8 mph.
Transport winds.....South 17 to 20 mph.
Ventilation index...Good (532) increasing to excellent (616) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......300-1900 ft AGL increasing to 2400-4000 ft AGL
                    by late morning, then decreasing to 1200 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Haines Index........3...or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
Sky (%).........37     44     47     51     51     55
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Temp............40     50     59     61     62     59
RH..............100    87     70     65     65     74
33 ft wind......SE 6   SE 6   SE 9   SE 11  SE 11  S 9
20 ft wind......SE 5   SE 5   SE 7   SE 9   SE 9   S 7
Wind gust.......
VIndx kt-ft/100.43     305    532    616    581    388
Transport wind..S 20   S 18   S 18   S 18   S 17   S 18
Mix hgt (ft)....300    1900   3300   3800   3900   2400
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Haines index....3      3      3      3      2      2

$$
Forecaster...JLA
Requested by...Cory
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1717054.0/MQT



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