Suppression Forecast
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FNUS71 KPBZ 281612
FWSPBZ

Spot Forecast for Hillcrest WMA Rx Burns 2017...WV Division of Forestry
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1212 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1800 EDT on March 29.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (412) 262-1485, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.Discussion...

Showers will plague the Upper Ohio Region this afternoon with crossing
low pressure. High pressure will bring dry weather for Wednesday
before another low pressure system brings rain into the region
beginning late Thursday.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent)...then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 36.
Max humidity........73 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......1400-2500 ft AGL...decreasing to 300-800 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Transport winds.....East 10 to 13 mph.
Haines Index........4...or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........27  33  38  41  44  47  51  54  58  61  63  66
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............54  52  49  46  43  41  40  40  39  39  38  37
RH..............46  48  51  56  61  65  68  68  69  70  72  73
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   6   6
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 1.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.12  10  10  10  12  12  12  10  10  10  12  13
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers late in the morning. A chance of
                    showers late in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 56.
Min humidity........48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 6 mph.
Mixing height.......700-2500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 13 to 16 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 4...or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........67  68  69  72  74  77  79  82  84  87  89  92
Weather cov.....            SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  20  20  30  30  40  40  40  40  40
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............36  37  38  40  43  46  49  53  55  56  56  56
RH..............75  74  71  67  62  56  52  49  48  49  51  54
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.5
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.13  14  14  15  15  16  15  14  14  14  15  16
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   2   2   2   2

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Showers
                    likely...mainly after midnight.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 47.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......300-1900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 17 mph.
Haines Index........2...or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........93  94  95  95  95  95  95  96  96  96  97  98
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).40  40  50  50  50  50  60  60  60  60  60  60
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............56  56  56  54  51  49  49  49  49  48  48  47
RH..............55  56  58  62  69  75  80  84  88  89  91  93
20 FT wind dir..E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   7   7   7   7   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.17  17  17  15  12  9   8   8   9   12  14  15
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Showers likely.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........74 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......500-2200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 16 to 22 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 3...or very low.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........99  99  100 99  99  99  99  98  98  97  97  96
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).60  60  60  70  70  70  70  70  70  70  70  60
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............47  48  49  50  52  54  57  58  60  61  61  61
RH..............96  96  95  94  90  87  84  81  80  76  74  74
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.7
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  S   S
Transp wind spd.16  16  16  16  18  20  21  22  22  22  21  20
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...TG
Requested by...M. Rodger Ozburn
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705298.0/PBZ
.EMAIL m.rodger.ozburn@wv.gov



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