Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FNUS72 KRAH 221128
FWSRAH

Spot Forecast for Party for the Pines Rx Burn...NC State Parks
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
728 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on April 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact this NWS office if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Warm, with a breezy southwest wind today, and an isolated thunderstorm
or two after 1 pm.

A cold front will settle south through VA this morning and into
central NC this afternoon through tonight. The front will stall over
southeastern NC by Sunday, in advance of a slow-moving area of low
pressure that will track along the coast of the Carolinas through
Mon night.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southwest winds 6 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph
                    early in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......Between 500 ft and 1000 ft AGL at ignition time...
                    increasing to between 1500 ft and 2000 ft by noon...
                    then peaking around 7000 ft AGL by 4 pm.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 18 mph...increasing to 21 to 25
                    mph late in the morning.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................6...increasing to 26 early in the
                    morning...then increasing to 62 late in the
                    morning...increasing to 84 early in the
                    afternoon...decreasing to 59.
Pcpn amount.........0.02 inches.
Visibility..........6.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........31     32     25     34     44
Weather cov.....                     S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                     S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     20     20
Temp............67     75     80     84     86
RH..............78     62     51     41     37
20 ft wind......SW 8   SW 9   SW 9   SW 10  SW 10
20 ft wind gust.20     20     15     20     20
Mix hgt (ft)....300    2200   4200   6200   7200
Transport wind..SW 14  SW 18  SW 22  SW 23  SW 25
LVORI...........3      3      1      1      1
ADI.............26     26     62     84     84
Visibility (sm).7      7      7      6      6

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent)...then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). A chance of
                    showers in the evening. A slight chance of
                    thunderstorms. Showers likely after midnight.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 5 to 9 mph...becoming northeast 5
                    to 7 mph in the late evening and overnight.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......4200 ft AGL...decreasing to 500-1800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 21 mph...becoming south around
                    8 mph late in the evening...then becoming
                    northeast in the late evening and early
                    morning...increasing to 13 to 14 mph after
                    midnight.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................59...decreasing to 9 early in the evening.
Pcpn amount.........0.07 inches.
Visibility..........6.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........42     36     54     64     72     80
Weather cov.....S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).20     30     30     50     50     50
Temp............85     79     74     66     61     59
RH..............37     44     53     70     81     83
20 ft wind......SW 9   SW 6   E 5    NE 6   NE 7   NE 7
20 ft wind gust.15     10     10     10     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....4200   500    500    500    700    700
Transport wind..SW 21  SW 12  E 5    NE 6   NE 13  NE 14
LVORI...........1      2      2      3      4      4
ADI.............59     4      4      4      12     12
Visibility (sm).6      6      6      6      6      6

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Showers. A slight
                    chance of thunderstorms early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northeast winds 7 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......600-2200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 14 to 18 mph.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................15...increasing to 38.
Pcpn amount.........0.28 inches.
Visibility..........6...decreasing to 3 early in the morning.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........94     100    100    100    100    100
Weather cov.....LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........       S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).60     80     80     80     80     80
Temp............58     57     62     64     66     66
RH..............86     93     81     78     75     75
20 ft wind......NE 7   NE 8   NE 8   NE 8   NE 9   NE 9
20 ft wind gust.15     15     15     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....600    700    1000   1400   1900   2200
Transport wind..NE 14  NE 15  NE 16  NE 16  E 17   NE 18
LVORI...........4      4      4      3      3      3
ADI.............13     17     17     26     35     35
Visibility (sm).6      3      3      3      3      3

$$
Forecaster...STRICKLER
Requested by...Thomas Crate
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707463.0/RAH
.EMAIL Thomas.crate@ncparks.gov



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