Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1
000
FNUS71 KRNK 151425
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for west aspect upper mountain...NC STATE PARKS
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
925 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EST on December 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Abundant cloudiness can be expected this morning into early
afternoon, which will limit amount of daytime sunshine and a
slower rise in temperatures near the burn site. Some breaks in
cloud cover are anticipated by mid to late afternoon as a
developing surface low in northeast North Carolina moves eastward.
No precipitation is expected with the surface low`s passage. That
will also be accompanied by a modest increase in west winds
between the late afternoon and early evening hours. Would expect
west gusts to top out around 20 mph with mixing, then both wind
speeds and gusts slowly ease into the mid-evening. Any burning
taking place this morning will stay close to the burn site and
close to the ground given the light winds and shallow mixing, but
will begin to tilt toward the east and become more lofted as the
afternoon progresses.

Given temperatures in the low 40s, relative humidities will
remain above 50 percent until mid-afternoon. Lowest values of
around 45 percent look to be realized by the mid to late
afternoon.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 43.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Becoming northeast around 5 mph early in the morning, then
                    becoming west 5 to 6 mph early in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL, increasing to 3100 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing winds........Northeast 5 to 6 mph, becoming northwest 9 to
                    18 mph in the afternoon, then increasing to
                    around 20 mph late.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................7, increasing to 62.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........67  68  67  62  56  49  43  27
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............35  37  39  41  42  43  41  39
RH..............62  58  53  50  48  44  47  50
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NW  W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..4   4   3   4   5   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   10  10  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 2.2 2.7 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.7
Mixng wind dir..NE  N   NW  NW  NW  NW  W   NW
Mixng wind spd..5   6   9   12  14  16  18  20
LVORI...........3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............9   17  32  43  52  59  64  63
Haines index....2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 27.
Max humidity........74 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 10 mph early in the evening, becoming
                    west around 5 mph by midnight, becoming light and
                    variable.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 12 to 21 mph, becoming west 6 to 8
                    mph late.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................10, decreasing to 3 late.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........18     6      3      1      1      1
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      10     10     10     10     0
Temp............38     34     32     31     30     29
RH..............53     60     64     65     66     68
20 ft wind......W 10   W 8    W 6    W 5    W 5    W 4
20 ft wind gust.18     16                          5
Mix hgt (ft)....2500   2300   2400   2300   1700   700
Mixing wind......NW 20  NW 21  NW 21  NW 20  NW 15  W 8
LVORI...........2      3      3      3      3      3
ADI.............14     9      9      10     7      3
Haines index....3      3      3      4      4      4

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 49.
Min humidity........39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds, becoming southwest 5
                    to 6 mph late in the morning.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL, increasing to 2300 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing winds........Southwest 5 to 13 mph.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................12, increasing to 28 in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........1      1      1      2      2      2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............28     29     36     42     46     46
RH..............72     70     58     47     41     42
20 ft wind......W 3    W 3    W 4    SW 6   SW 6   SW 6
20 ft wind gust.5      5      5             10
Mix hgt (ft)....400    800    1800   2100   2200   2100
Mixing wind......W 5    W 7    W 10   W 12   SW 12  SW 13
LVORI...........3      3      2      2      2      1
ADI.............7      9      24     27     29     32
Haines index....4      4      4      5      5      4

$$
Forecaster...Loconto
Requested by...MATT WINDSOR
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1720017.0/RNK



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.