National Weather Service Text Product Display

Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Versions: 1
000
FNUS71 KRNK 172303
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR SWIFT WATER EXERCISE...NWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
703 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1828 EDT ON MAY 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT INTO THE AREA EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING...MAINLY BETWEEN 8-11 PM.  A MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM SITUATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

HUMIDITY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN HIGH...MAKING
IT FEEL HUMID.


.REST OF TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80 PERCENT CLOUD COVER).
                    A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER OR
                    THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 8-11 PM...OTHERWISE
                    JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.
MAX HUMIDITY........92 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
                    EVENING.
CWR (0.01 IN).......50 PERCENT THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO 20
                    PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 1 TO 6 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
SKY (%).............92     84     83     83     82     78
WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............CHANCE CHANCE
TEMP................80     75     71     69     67     65
RH..................47     62     73     77     80     92
20 FT WIND..........E 2    E 1    E 0    E 1    E 1    E 1
20 FT WIND GUST.....
MIX HGT (FT)........2400   400    300    300    300    300
TRANSPORT WIND......E 2    E 2    E 3    NE 3   NE 2   NE 2
LVORI...............2      3      3      4      5      5
ADI.................1      1      2      1      1      1
CWR.................40     50     50     30     20     20

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT CLOUD COVER).
                    A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
                    SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST
                    AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......20 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4100 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 12 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 15
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.


TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............77     76     80     85     88     86
WEATHER COV.........S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............              ISOLTD ISOLTD CHANCE CHANCE
TEMP................63     66     70     74     76     78
RH..................89     81     73     66     59     55
20 FT WIND..........E 1    E 1    E 2    SE 3   SE 4   SE 4
20 FT WIND GUST.....              5      5      10     10
MIX HGT (FT)........300    300    1300   2400   3100   3700
TRANSPORT WIND......N 3    NE 5   NE 10  E 12   E 8    E 12
LVORI...............7      5      3      3      2      1
ADI.................1      4      17     24     21     32
CWR.................20     20     20     30     50     60


$$
FORECASTER...MANUEL
REQUESTED BY...PHIL
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 20130517.SWIFT.01/RNK
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
