Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Alaska-Pacific RFC

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AGAK78 PACR 221937
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
1130 AM AKDT MON MON 21 2014

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

WATER LEVELS IN THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KENAI RIVER REMAIN ELEVATED
FROM ALL THE RAIN THAT FELL LAST WEEK. COOPER LANDING FELL BELOW
ACTION STAGE ON SUNDAY WHILE KENAI KEYS AND SKILAK LAKE WILL FALL
BELOW ACTION STAGE BY EARLY THIS WEEK. THE DRY WEATHER FORECAST THIS
WEEK WILL ALLOW WATER LEVELS TO FALL UNBATED.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. A SIGNIFIANT SHORTWAVE BLEW THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AND BROUGHT A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THROUGH THE REGION.
OVER THE LAST THREE DAYS SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE REPORTED BETWEEN 5
AND 7 INCHES OF RAIN. THE TAIYA RIVER NEAR SKAGWAY ROSE TO MODERATE
FLOOD STAGE BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY BUT HAS BEEN FALLING SHARPLY MONDAY
MORNING.

FLOOD POTENTIAL IS LOW OVER THE REST OF THE STATE.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND HAS BEEN ON AN
EASTERWARD PROGRESSION AS A RIDGE ENTERS THE WEST. FURTHER NORTH A
TROUGH IN THE ARCTIC WAS PUSHING ONSHORE OVER THE NORTHWEST. AT THE
SURFACE A LOW NEAR YAKUTAT CONTINUES TO SPIN... GENERATING RAIN AND
OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF... SOUTHEAST INTERIOR AND
CANADIAN YUKON.

THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST GETS TRAMPLED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS WHILE THE NORTHWEST TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTH.
SIGNIFICANTLY COOL AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS CROSS THE NORTHERN MAINLAND
THOURGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE SIGNIFIANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK ACROSS ALASKA.

THE FREEZING LEVELS THIS MORNING RANNGED BETWEEN 1800 FT AT KOTZEBUE
TO 4100 FT AT FAIRBANKS... THEN FELL SHARPLY TO JUST OVER 100 FT AT
BARROW. OVER THE COASTAL LOCATIONS HIEGHTS RANGED BETWEEN 4800 FT TO
8200 FT. FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY OVER THE MAINLAND BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION... SELECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE 24 HOURS
ENDING AT 4 AM TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS   24 HR
======== ====                 == ==   =====
LLKA2    LONG LAKE SNOTEL     PC RM :   2.50
PAHN     HAINES LANDING STRIP PP RZ :   2.49
PAYA     YAKUTAT              PP RZ :   1.75
SRYA2    SITUK RIVER NR YAKUT PP RG :   1.60
MREA2    MOORE CREEK BRIDGE   PC RM :   1.60
CKPA2    CHILKOOT PASS RAWS   PP RG :   1.49
PECA2    PELICAN              PP RZ :   1.25
SPCA2    SHEEP CAMP RAWS      PP RG :   1.21
PAGY     SKAGWAY              PP RZ :   1.14
HONA2    HOONAH RAWS          PC RG :   1.06
HADA2    HAIDA RAWS           PC RG :   1.04
SDIA2    SOUTH DOUGLAS        PC RZ :   1.00
PAOH     HOONAH               PP RZ :   0.97
GSTA2    GLACIER BAY NATIONAL PP RZ :   0.96
GUSA2    GUSTAVUS             PP RZ :   0.91
ZMBA2    ZAREMBO ISLAND SOUTH PC RG :   0.88
PAJK     JUNEAU WFO           PP RZ :   0.87
SHLA2    SHELTER COVE RAWS    PP RG :   0.82
BLTA2    BARTLETT COVE        PC RG :   0.80
PAJK     JUNEAU WFO           PC RZ :   0.78
GTSA2    GUSTUVUS 2NE         PP RG :   0.77
MCAA2    MONTANA CREEK AT BAC PP RG :   0.71
PAJN     JUNEAU               PP RZ :   0.70
AUKA2    AUKE BAY LARC        PC RP :   0.70
ALEA2    ALSEK RIVER AT DRY B PP RG :   0.70
KKEA2    KAKE RAWS            PP RG :   0.67
MSOA2    MUNSON RIDGE SNOTEL  PC RM :   0.60
PAKW     KLAWOCK              PP RZ :   0.59
SIKA2    SITKA CRN            PP RZ :   0.55
PASI     SITKA                PP RZ :   0.55
PATK     TALKEETNA            PP RZ :   0.54
MSOA2    MUNSON RIDGE SNOTEL  PC R2 :   0.54
PANT     ANNETTE              PP RZ :   0.50
META2    AK METLAKATLA 6S     PP RZ :   0.48

...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AKPEN... EXTREME WESTERN PORTION
OF THE MAINLAND... NORTH GULF AND THE PANHANDLE.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE PANHANDLE.

PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HOME PAGE FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

....................................................................

THIS HYDROMET DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED DAILY UNTIL FREEZE-UP BEGINS
IN THE FALL.

A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP

$$

ETH



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