Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Alaska-Pacific RFC

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AGAK78 PACR 292101
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY LOW FOR THE STATE OF ALASKA.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION... FOR SOUTHEAST
ALASKA...BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON A FRONT AND ELONGATED LOW
WILL DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND MODEL
GUIDANCE GENERALLY STRENGTHENS THIS LOW AND MOVES IT INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF BY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DIVERGENCE ON EXACT QPF BUT IT SHOULD ACCUMULATE TO LESS THAN AN
INCH.  LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE STATE.

FREEZING LEVELS WERE AT THE SURFACE OVER MOST OF THE MAINLAND THIS
MORNING... RISING TO 1500-2500 FT FROM BETHEL TO KODIAK... AND UP TO
4300 FT OVER THE PANHANDLE.  FREEZING LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO TO
CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

PRECIPITATION... SELECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE 24 HOURS
ENDING AT 4 AM TODAY:


LOCATION NAME                 PE TS   24 HR
======== ====                 == ==   =====
THBA2    THORNE BAY WATER     PP RZ :  1.33
PAKT     KETCHIKAN            PP RZ :  1.20
KLWA2    HOLLIS               PP RZ :  1.17
PPAQ2    PINE PASS            PC RG :  1.14
HADA2    HAIDA RAWS           PC RG :  1.07
SOUA2    SOULE RIVER NEAR HYD PC RG :  1.00
CFSA2    CRAIG FOREST SERVICE PP RZ :  0.91
SHDQ2    SHEDIN RIVER SNOW PI PC RG :  0.79
PSPQ2    PARSNIP RIVER ABOVE  PC RG :  0.78
KTAA2    KETCHIKAN 13N        PP RZ :  0.76
SHLA2    SHELTER COVE RAWS    PC RG :  0.73
CKLA2    CAPE KIAVAK RAWS     PC RG :  0.70
CFCA2    COFFMAN COVE         PP RZ :  0.65
ZMBA2    ZAREMBO ISLAND SOUTH PC RG :  0.64
TSAQ2    TSAI CREEK NEAR SMIT PC RG :  0.63
THOA2    THORNE BAY RAWS      PC RG :  0.62
PAOU     NELSON LAGOON        PP RZ :  0.62
CBHA2    CORDOVA BOAT HARBOR  PC RP :  0.49
PAPG     PETERSBURG           PP RZ :  0.47
PAKW     KLAWOCK              PP RZ :  0.46
MOGA2    MOTHER GOOSE LAKE RA PC RG :  0.41
PADQ     KODIAK               PP RZ :  0.37
MOBQ2    MOBERLY RIVER NEAR F PC RG :  0.35



...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE THE NORTH SLOPE AND WESTERN BROOKS
RANGE.  THERE ARE INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST MAINLAND.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES FOR
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND
NORTHEAST MAINLAND.  THERE ARE INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR WESTERN MAINLAND... MUCH OF THE AKPEN...
AND OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HOME PAGE FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

....................................................................

THIS HYDROMET DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED DAILY UNTIL FREEZE-UP BEGINS
IN THE FALL.

A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP

$$

CVB



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