Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Alaska-Pacific RFC

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AGAK78 PACR 232152
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HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT MON OCT 23 2017

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY LOW FOR THE ENTIRE STATE.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION....

THE LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS DOMINATED MAINLAND ALASKA
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE WEST. A LOW FORMING NEAR THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH MID
WEEK ADVECTING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AND WARMER THAN NORMAL AIR
OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. THROUGH TUESDAY THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE PANHANDLE WHERE UP TO
ONE INCH WILL FALL OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AND
FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE NEAR 4000 FEET. AN ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE INTO COOK INLET MONDAY EVENING BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE
KENAI MOUNTAINS AND ALASKA RANGE.

THE WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN AND WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SOME PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION
LATER IN THE WEEK COULD BE HEAVY ALONG THE GULF COAST IN THE
VICINITY OF CORDOVA AND YAKUTAT.




...PRECIPITATION...

SELECTED 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ENDING AT 4 AM AKDT TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS   24 HR
======== ====                 == ==   =====

AEL      ELFIN COVE           PP RZ :  0.89
KPHA2    KETCHIKAN POWERHOUSE PP RZ :  0.84
SHLA2    SHELTER COVE RAWS    PC RG :  0.80
JTMA2    MT ROBERTS TRAM      PC RZ :  0.76
SHLA2    SHELTER COVE RAWS    PP RG :  0.75
PAKT     KETCHIKAN AIRPORT    PP RZ :  0.75
KTAA2    KETCHIKAN 13N        PP RZ :  0.74
HOOA2    HOONAH               PP RZ :  0.53
ECBA2    EAGLECREST BASE      PP RZ :  0.50
PAYA     YAKUTAT AIRPORT      PP RZ :  0.46
MCAA2    MONTANA CREEK AT BAC PP RG :  0.44
SIKA2    SITKA CRN            PP RG :  0.43
PPSA2    POWDER PATCH STATION PC RZ :  0.41
KKEA2    KAKE RAWS            PC RG :  0.40
AUKA2    AUKE BAY             PC RP :  0.40
PAKW     KLAWOCK AIRPORT      PP RZ :  0.39


...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE OVER THE STATE OF ALASKA.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE STATE.

PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HOME PAGE FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

....................................................................

THIS TEXT PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED DAILY UNTIL FREEZEUP IN THE FALL. A
GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC/GRAPHICALHMD

$$
DPS



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