Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 281151 CCA
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
650 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-291045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
650 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND SEVERE RISK THRU THE WEEKEND...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Along and south of I-44.
ONSET...Late this afternoon...but most likely this evening.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Significant.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Late this afternoon or early this evening.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...In a zone between I-44 and a McAlester to
                            Fort Smith line.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...After 9 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...After 9 PM.

DISCUSSION...

An elevated or enhanced risk of severe storms is forecast tonight
across eastern Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. Very large hail
to baseball size, damaging winds to 70 mph, and an isolated
tornado are possible.

The bulk of the daytime hours should remain quiet. Storms are
expected to fire by late in the day west of the region near a
dryline and over portions of the region going into the evening to
the north of a warm front. The storms to our west will gradually
grow upscale into lines or clusters which will sweep east during
the overnight. At that time, the main severe threat will
transition from large hail to damaging winds. Storms may gradually
weaken toward daybreak.

An elevated flash flood risk is forecast across northeast Oklahoma
tonight. This region could be affected by multiple rounds of
storms, with a round possible thru the evening as storms form
north of the warm front, and again during the overnight as storms
out west move into the region. Locally heavy rainfall in excess of
2 inches may lead to some flash flooding.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
MONDAY...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are forecast over the region
Saturday and Saturday night as a powerful upper level storm system
develops to our west and interacts with a frontal boundary draped
over the region. Storm total rainfall in the 4 to 7 inch range is
expected, with locally heavier amounts, across much of northeast and
east central Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas thru Sunday. This
heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and
significant flooding of area rivers and lakes. Locations downstream
from dams could see significant flooding as water is released from
the flooded lakes.

An enhanced or elevated severe weather risk is forecast again
Saturday afternoon and evening across east central and southeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The quasi-stationary frontal
boundary and approaching upper system will continue to be the
focus for more storm development during the afternoon and evening
hours. The severe weather threat will come to an end from west to
east as a cold front sweeps across the region late Saturday night
into Sunday morning.

Another storm system will bring the potential for more storms by
the middle of next week. This system is expected to push through
too quickly to bring significant rainfall. An organized severe
weather event is not expected either.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...

Continue to follow the latest updates regarding the expected
hazardous weather that will affect much of the area this weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

$$

Lacy


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