Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXCA20 KWBC 011039
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
639 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM 01/06
UTC: TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EXTENDS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. A SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA IS
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH...AND AS IT PULLS ACROSS PUERTO
RICO IT IS ENHANCING UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS FAVORED SCATTERED CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING.

THIS PATTERN...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DEVOLVE AS A CELL
OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN IS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS DISPLACES
THE TUTT TO THE WEST AND NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AT MID
LEVELS IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BUILDING CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...FORKING INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE CYCLE. THIS IS TO
RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN THE TRADE WINDS CAP LATER THIS
MORNING...SUSTAINING EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE TO THEN PERSIST
WELL INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH MODELS SHOWING CHANCE OF
SOME SHOWERS ON FRIDAY-SATURDAY AS PROGRESSIVE TROPICAL WAVE/TRADE
WIND SURGE PULLS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE...DRY AND
DUSTY CONDITIONS ARE TO GENERALLY PREVAIL AS MORE DUST FROM THE
SAHARA ADVECTS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

SALMON...MS (ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA)
SAMUEL...MDS (SURINAME)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$




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