Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS02 KWBC 270433
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1132 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VALID 12Z SUN NOV 30 2014 - 12Z THU DEC 04 2014


...HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR CALIFORNIA...


USED THE MOST RECENT EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN AS A SYNOPTIC
BASE AT THE MEDIUM RANGE. NONE OF THE ENSEMBLE SUITES OF THE PAST
FEW DAYS HAVE PROVEN PARTICULARLY ACCURATE OR STABLE, WITH THE
ECENS MEAN THE LEAST VOLATILE. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS, OF COURSE,
HAVE BEEN EVEN MORE SUBJECT TO THE WHIPLASH CHANGES THAT HAVE COME
WITH EACH NEW DATA CYCLE. SEVERAL DAYS AGO, WHAT IS NOW DAY
3--SUNDAY--WAS SUPPOSED TO FEATURE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST, AND CHINOOK CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. NOW, THE EAST IS TO BE AWASH IN MILD, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW,
WITH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES UNDER AN ARCTIC HIGH.

THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF THE TROUGH COMING INTO CALIFORNIA AT THE MEDIUM RANGE,
THE MESSAGE OF HIGH POPS AND SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND SNOW HAS
REMAINED THE SAME. MUCH OF THE WEST WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS PERIOD,
THOUGH CALIFORNIA SHOULD WEAR THE WET CROWN.


CISCO

$$




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