Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 291213
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
812 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

VALID 00Z TUE JUN 30 2015 - 00Z TUE JUL 07 2015

MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS DISPLAY NO LARGE SCALE DISAGREEMENTS
REGARDING THE PATTERN OVER/NEAR THE STATE DURING THE PERIOD.
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST TWO INDIVIDUAL SURFACE
REFLECTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL PACIFIC MEAN TROUGH ALOFT
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DISRUPTION OF TRADE FLOW.  AS A RESULT
LAND/SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE ON SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GREATER
THAN AVERAGE.  AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE WAVE/TROUGH INITIALLY
OVER OR A LITTLE WEST OF 145W LONGITUDE SHOULD BRING ADDED
MOISTURE TO THE REGION IN THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME, SOMEWHAT MORE
OVER THE BIG ISLAND VERSUS LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTHWEST.  EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL BUT TODAY`S MODEL
RUNS GENERALLY SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING SOMEWHAT
LESS THAN RUNS FROM 24 HOURS AGO.  AFTER THU EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY DRIFTING WESTWARD SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WITH TERRAIN-FOCUSED RAINFALL.  AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE IN THE LIGHTER HALF OF THE SPECTRUM GIVEN CONSENSUS
TOWARD PWATS TRENDING TO OR BELOW 1.50 INCHES.

RAUSCH

$$




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