Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXHW01 KWNH 041159
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
659 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015

VALID 00Z THU MAR 05 2015 - 00Z THU MAR 12 2015


...WET PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN ISLANDS...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL FUEL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN
THE EASTERN ISLANDS TODAY AND THU.  OVER THE WEEKEND THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW THE MOIST AXIS DRIFTING SOUTH WITH THE GREATER 850 MB
CONVERGENCE SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS.  THE GFS
SUGGESTS A RETURN OF THE AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EARLY NEXT WEEK, REIGNITING THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.  THE ECMWF
WAITS UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEK TO REINTRODUCE THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT, AND DOES SIDE FOR ALL OF THE ISLANDS. THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE ECMWF FOCUSES THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT PRIMARILY ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE BIG
ISLAND.

PETERSEN

$$





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