Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 301211
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
810 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

VALID 00Z SAT OCT 01 2016 - 00Z SAT OCT 08 2016

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY SETTLING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY ELONGATE WESTWARD ALONG
30N LATITUDE.  EXPECT MODERATE TO BRISK TRADES INTO/THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  TRADES MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER BUT MOST LIKELY
STILL REMAIN AT MODERATE LEVELS.  BY SATURDAY EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN RAINFALL AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ULIKA
ARRIVES.  GFS/ECMWF RUNS BOTH AGREE THAT A FURTHER INCREASE IN
MOISTURE, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2 INCHES OR GREATER
REACHING AT LEAST AS FAR NORTH AS THE BIG ISLAND, MAY OCCUR IN THE
TUESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME.  CURRENT GUIDANCE ANTICIPATES THE
START OF A DRYING TREND NEXT FRIDAY.  ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE A GENERAL WEAKNESS ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION.  EXACT DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL CIRCULATIONS ALOFT DIFFER IN
THE MODELS AND WILL BE IMPORTANT IN DETERMINING WHERE/WHEN
RAINFALL MAY BE ENHANCED.  THE SMALL AND WEAK SCALE OF FEATURES
ALOFT LEADS TO LOW PREDICTABILITY FOR THAT ASPECT OF THE FORECAST.

RAUSCH

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