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FXUS06 KWBC 272013
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI FEBRUARY 27 2015

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 05 - 09 2015

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FAIRLY HIGH-AMPLITUDE
500-HPA PATTERN FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ALL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, AND A TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE
REST OF CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS
THE FORECAST DOMAIN.

THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS, IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EXPECTED TROUGH EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST. THERE ARE ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEST COAST, RELATED TO THE
FORECAST RIDGE. NEAR- AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR ALASKA
INCLUDING THE ALEUTIANS AND THE PANHANDLE, IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

NEAR- TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST,
TO SOUTHERN TEXAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FORECAST TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS.  NEAR- TO BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE
MUCH OF THE CONUS, IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
THIS AREA IS UPSTREAM OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND AWAY FROM THE MEAN STORM
TRACK.  THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
ALASKA AND THE PANHANDLES RELATED TO A NORTHWARD DISPLACED STORM TRACK.


TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20%
OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8


MODEL OF THE DAY: NO PREFERENCE

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION TOOLS, OFFSET BY THE
INCONSISTENT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS BETWEEN THE NAEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 07 - 13 2015

THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTIONS ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE WEEK-2
PERIOD ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER NORTH AMERICA. A SHORT WAVE WITH A TROUGH IS
PREDICTED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, AND A TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. OVER THE ALASKA SECTOR, A CONSENSUS OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTIONS FORECAST A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE MOST PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE INTERIOR BASIN OF
ALASKA, IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN CONUS NEAR THE FORECAST
TROUGH. WITH A TROUGH POSITION FORECAST NEAR THE WEST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.

ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED FOR ALASKA INCLUDING THE
PANHANDLE AND THE ALEUTIANS RELATED TO A NORTHWARD DISPLACED STORM TRACK.
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS BEHIND OF THE MEAN TROUGH. ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE WEST COAST, ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACTIVE SHORT
WAVE MOVING NEAR THE COAST.


THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 20% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL TOOLS, OFFSET BY THE FASTER EASTWARD SHIFT
OF THE PATTERNS IN GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN THAN THAT OF 0Z ECMWF.

FORECASTER: QIN GINGER ZHANG

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 19

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890210 - 20020302 - 20030208 - 19820207 - 19630308


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890209 - 20020302 - 19890214 - 20060215 - 19820206


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 05 - 09 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       N    B     NEVADA      N    B
W MONTANA   N    B     E MONTANA   N    B     WYOMING     N    B
UTAH        N    B     ARIZONA     N    B     COLORADO    B    B
NEW MEXICO  B    N     N DAKOTA    B    B     S DAKOTA    N    B
NEBRASKA    N    B     KANSAS      B    B     OKLAHOMA    B    B
N TEXAS     B    N     S TEXAS     B    N     W TEXAS     B    N
MINNESOTA   B    B     IOWA        B    B     MISSOURI    B    B
ARKANSAS    B    B     LOUISIANA   B    N     WISCONSIN   B    B
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI B    N     MICHIGAN    B    B
INDIANA     B    B     OHIO        B    N     KENTUCKY    B    N
TENNESSEE   B    N     ALABAMA     B    N     NEW YORK    B    N
VERMONT     B    N     NEW HAMP    B    N     MAINE       B    N
MASS        B    N     CONN        B    N     RHODE IS    B    N
PENN        B    N     NEW JERSEY  B    N     W VIRGINIA  B    N
MARYLAND    B    N     DELAWARE    B    N     VIRGINIA    B    N
N CAROLINA  B    A     S CAROLINA  B    N     GEORGIA     B    N
FL PNHDL    B    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 07 - 13 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    A
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    N    B
NEW MEXICO  N    N     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    N    B
N TEXAS     N    N     S TEXAS     B    N     W TEXAS     N    N
MINNESOTA   N    B     IOWA        N    B     MISSOURI    N    B
ARKANSAS    B    B     LOUISIANA   B    N     WISCONSIN   B    N
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI B    N     MICHIGAN    B    N
INDIANA     B    B     OHIO        B    B     KENTUCKY    B    B
TENNESSEE   B    B     ALABAMA     B    N     NEW YORK    B    B
VERMONT     B    B     NEW HAMP    B    B     MAINE       B    B
MASS        B    B     CONN        B    B     RHODE IS    B    B
PENN        B    B     NEW JERSEY  B    B     W VIRGINIA  B    B
MARYLAND    B    B     DELAWARE    B    B     VIRGINIA    B    B
N CAROLINA  B    B     S CAROLINA  B    N     GEORGIA     B    N
FL PNHDL    B    N     FL PENIN    N    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  B    A
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    N    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$



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