Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 181959
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
358 PM EDT FRI AUG 18 2017

VALID 00Z SAT AUG 19 2017 - 00Z MON AUG 21 2017

...SLIGHT RISKS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING FOR THE
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST AND MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND...

...SLIGHT RISKS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST REGIONS THIS WEEKEND WHICH
WILL GENERATE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE WELL ORGANIZED, POTENTIALLY BECOMING
SEVERE AND PRODUCING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS IDENTIFIED PORTIONS OF MISSOURI, MINNESOTA AND THE
MID-ATLANTIC AS HAVING A A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AS THE TRAILING END OF THE FRONT
STALLS OVER THE REGION.

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS WEEKEND.
AMPLE MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST
WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AS IT INTERACTS WITH STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THEN LIFTS AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS. MUCH OF THE MONGOLIAN RIM, SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND THE SURROUNDING VALLEYS WILL HAVE AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THIS WEEKEND. AREAL AVERAGES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
- LOCALIZED AMOUNT NEAR 3 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES THIS
WEEKEND. HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN IOWA.

CAMPBELL



GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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