Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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663
FXUS01 KWBC 250709
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
309 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

VALID 12Z SUN SEP 25 2016 - 12Z TUE SEP 27 2016

...COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER HUMIDITY FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES...

...HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS TEXAS...

REFRESHING CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN HAVE ARRIVED FOR MUCH OF
THE EASTERN U.S., INCLUDING THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE
NORTHEAST.  A LARGE SURFACE HIGH OVER QUEBEC WILL DELIVER A
QUALITY FALL-LIKE AIRMASS FROM VIRGINIA AND POINTS NORTHWARD
THROUGH MONDAY, AFTER WHICH A BRIEF WARM-UP ENSUES BEFORE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY TUESDAY.  THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST U.S.
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WARM AND HUMID FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.

AN OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THAT IS EVENTUALLY
EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST.  SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS LIKELY FOR TEXAS, WHERE A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS
FORECAST TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE ON SUNDAY AS A SLOW MOVING FRONT INTERCEPTS A RICH FLOW OF
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST WILL HELP PROVIDE LIFT IN ADDITION TO THE
FRONT TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES WILL BE COMMON, WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 6
INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCALES.  A MODERATE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WITH A SLIGHT RISK
LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

HAMRICK


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_WBG.PHP
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