Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 050747
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
347 AM EDT WED AUG 05 2015

VALID 12Z WED AUG 05 2015 - 12Z FRI AUG 07 2015

...SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE PLAINS TO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...

...TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...


MOST OF THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE HEARTLAND OF THE US
WILL BE PROVIDED BY A FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THIS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY
CONNECTED TO AN IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE NORTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST WHICH BRINGS LOWER DEW POINTS AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. AS THIS STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES TO STAY IN PLACE, WARM, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND GIVES WAY TO VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS.  CONSEQUENTLY, ON
WEDNESDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  ON THURSDAY MORNING, MOST OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.  HOWEVER, BY THURSDAY EVENING,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE  MID-ATLANTIC AND
OHIO VALLEY.  THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.  CONSULT SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS AND WPC EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR MORE INFORMATION.

TO THE NORTH, THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL MOVE FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A
SEPARATE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING EASTWARD.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ACROSS
MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS AS MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS
THE REGION.

IN RESPONSE TO THE WARM GULF MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING, THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE QUITE WARM OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES TIPPING OVER THE CENTURY MARK.  HEAT
INDICES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 100S AND REACHING TO 110 DEGREES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  WITH MOST OF THE RAINFALL TO THE
NORTH, THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HEAT HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND.


FANNING



GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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