Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 271904
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
303 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

VALID 00Z SAT MAY 28 2016 - 00Z MON MAY 30 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ACROSS THE COASTAL
SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...

...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE GREAT
LAKES, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MULTIPLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TONIGHT. MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE ALONG THE WESTERN GULF
COAST THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHERE THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL -- AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL, AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS AND THEN BEGINS MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD NORTHWARD UP
THE MID ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THESE AREAS AND COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE TRAILING END OF THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY BY SATURDAY NIGHT, KEEPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO SUNDAY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE MID AND UPPER-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST TODAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THESE AREAS TODAY. ON SATURDAY, AREAS
OF THE NORTHEAST COULD APPROACH 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.


RYAN/KREKELER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_WBG.PHP
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