Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
000
FXUS01 KWBC 262059
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
458 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017

VALID 00Z MON MAR 27 2017 - 00Z WED MAR 29 2017

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...

...RAIN/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

...HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST U.S. THROUGH MONDAY...

A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/LOWER
PLAINS AND EASTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TWO MAIN
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLAY: THE FIRST WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE UPPER  GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA MONDAY AS
IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, AND THE SECOND WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT, AND INTO THE MID/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY. THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY
TRAVERSE THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE REACHING THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
CONNECT THESE TWO SYSTEMS, AND WILL BE THE EPICENTER FOR
PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

IN THE NORTHEAST U.S., PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE COLD SECTOR OF
THE NORTHERN MOST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, FALLING AS A FREEZING RAIN
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FROM FAR EASTERN NEW YORK UPWARDS
THROUGH MAINE. WIDESPREAD RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REGIONS. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST.

FOR THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED GENERALLY JUST AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE STRONG NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM, AND
THE STRONG PULL OF WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR FLOWING IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO, THIS WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, CREATING THE INGREDIENTS
NECESSARY TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AS BEING IN AN ENHANCED
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH AN
ENHANCED AND SLIGHT RISK EXPANDING FARTHER TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA, PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS, AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
HIGH WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE HAZARDS AS
STORMS DEVELOP. PLEASE REFER TO THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER`S WEB
PAGE FOR MORE INFORMATION: WWW.CPS.NCEP.NOAA.GOV. THE AREA OF
CONCERN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY MONDAY, WITH MUCH OF THE WESTERN
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BEING OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME.

OVER THE WEST COAST, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND OCCLUDED SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING, CONTINUING TO MOVE
EASTWARD TO THE ROCKIES BY MONDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
SPREADING INLAND AND AFFECTING PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY,
THEN REACHING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY EVENING.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
CASCADES AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SIERRA NEVADAS WHERE SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOWFALL. THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY SINK SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, ONCE AGAIN
TAPPING INTO WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR FLOWING INLAND FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS COMBINATION MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE TUESDAY
AND HEADING INTO MID-WEEK.


WIX

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_WBG.PHP
$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.