Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS21 KWNC 311901
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT OCTOBER 31 2014

SYNOPSIS: AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXITS NEW ENGLAND AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD, A COLD FRONT IS PREDICTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE LOWER 48 STATES MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING SECONDARY
FRONT THURSDAY, BRINGING WET WEATHER TO PARTS OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
ALEUTIANS, GULF OF ALASKA AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF ALASKA DURING DAYS 3 TO 7.

HAZARDS

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MON-TUE, NOV 3-4.

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
WED-THU, NOV 5-6.

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, MON-TUE, NOV 3-4.

MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS, MON, NOV 3.

HIGH WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, GREAT LAKES, MID-ATLANTIC, AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, MON, NOV 3.

SEVERE DROUGHT FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, SOUTHWEST, SOUTHEAST,
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND CALIFORNIA.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR MONDAY NOVEMBER 03 - FRIDAY NOVEMBER 07: REMNANTS OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
EXITING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGH WINDS TO PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST, GREAT LAKES, MID-ATLANTIC, AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY. SOME
OF THESE AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS REACHING 30 KNOTS OR
GREATER.



MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS
PREDICTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT, THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE FIRST OF THE TWO
FRONTS IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS, AND MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY TO TUESDAY. A SURFACE
LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO EXTEND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOME OF THESE AREAS MAY RECEIVE UP TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL OR GREATER IN A 24-HOUR PERIOD.



UPSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DOMINATE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE DAYS 3-7 PERIOD, BRINGING HEAVY
RAIN TO PARTS OF THIS AREA MONDAY TO TUESDAY. SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE UP TO 2.5
INCHES OF RAINFALL OR GREATER IN A 24-HOUR PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA AT THIS TIME.



COLD, HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BY
MONDAY, BRINGING MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST,
MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THESE AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE DAILY
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 12 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
LOW 30S (DEGREES F).



THE 6Z DETERMINISTIC GFS INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY FOR THE GREAT LAKES TO
EXPERIENCE HIGH WINDS WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 30 KNOTS OR GREATER ON
THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW AT THE HEAD OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER, DUE TO POOR MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE INTENSITY OF THIS SURFACE
LOW AND THUS THE ASSOCIATED WINDS, A RELATED HAZARDS AREA IS NOT DESIGNATED AT
THIS TIME.



THERE IS POOR MODEL AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE
EXPECTED PATTERN OVER ALASKA. NO HAZARDS CAN BE DETERMINED FOR ALASKA AT THIS
TIME.

FOR SATURDAY NOVEMBER 08 - FRIDAY NOVEMBER 14: IN GENERAL, THE MAJORITY OF BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SUPPORT AN ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. SOME MODELS INDICATE STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING WET WEATHER TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS, SUPPORTING A
WET PATTERN FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE 0Z ECMWF AND 6Z GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
ALEUTIANS BY NEXT SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH THEIR COUNTERPART DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE PATTERN OVER ALASKA. THERE ARE TOO
MANY MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE DETAILS OF THESE FEATURES TO DETERMINE ANY
RELATED HAZARDS AT THIS TIME.



THE MOST RECENT DROUGHT MONITOR, RELEASED OCTOBER 28, SHOWS A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE DROUGHT, FROM 18.04% TO 18.01%. THERE IS ALSO
THE LARGEST AMOUNT OF AREAL EXTENT WITHOUT ANY LEVEL OF DRYNESS SINCE DECEMBER
2011.

FORECASTER: MELISSA OU

$$




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