Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS21 KWNC 311925
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT MAY 31 2016

SYNOPSIS: THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE, CURRENTLY NEAR AND OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST, ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THESE REMNANTS MAY FINALLY MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
COAST AND OUT TO SEA THIS WEEKEND, IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THIS FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND EAST TEXAS, WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE TEXAS
COAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD ALONG
THE GULF COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE 3-7 DAY PERIOD. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS PREDICTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE WESTERN CONUS. RELATIVELY WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE PREDICTED TO INFLUENCE ALASKA DURING THE HAZARDS
PERIOD, BUT NONE ARE EXPECTED TO BRING HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS.

HAZARDS

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS, FRI-SAT, JUNE 3-4.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, SUN-MON, JUNE 5-6.

MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION,
AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, FRI-SUN, JUNE 3-5.

MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, MON-TUE, JUNE 6-7.

EXCESSIVE HEAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST, FRI-MON, JUNE 3-6.

EXCESSIVE HEAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST, FRI-SUN, JUNE 3-5.

A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF BOTH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES, AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WED, JUNE 8.

A MODERATE RISK OF MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONTANA, NORTHERN
WYOMING, AND SMALL PARTS OF ADJACENT STATES, WED, JUNE 8.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING, IMMINENT, LIKELY, OR POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS, THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY, AND ALONG THE
IOWA-MISSOURI BORDER.

SEVERE DROUGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CALIFORNIA, NEVADA, NORTH-CENTRAL WYOMING, AND
HAWAII.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR FRIDAY JUNE 03 - TUESDAY JUNE 07: THE REMNANTS OF BONNIE ARE EXPECTED TO
DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG AND NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, BEFORE BEING DRIVEN OUT TO SEA THIS WEEKEND BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. AN AREA OF EXCESSIVE HEAT (DEFINED AS MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING 105 DEGREES F) IS PREDICTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC
COASTAL PLAIN FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO NORTHERN FLORIDA, JUNE 3-5. ON JUNE 5-6,
THE EXPECTED COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SEA-BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ACTIVITY SUPPORTS THE RISK OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA (1-4 INCHES, WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED IN SOUTH FLORIDA).
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITH TROPICAL ORIGINS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND MOVE TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN JUNE 5-7. THIS AREA
WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS.



A STALLED FRONT DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS, AND AN ACCOMPANYING WAVE OF LOW
SURFACE PRESSURE, ARE PREDICTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN (1-3 INCHES) TO MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS FROM JUNE 3-4.



FLOODING IS OCCURRING, IMMINENT, LIKELY, OR POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS DURING THIS PERIOD, DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FLOODING ALREADY
IN PROGRESS, AND THE FORECAST OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STALLED FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOTED EARLIER. ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY, ONGOING FLOODING IS LIKELY TO BE EXACERBATED BY
MORE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. A VERY SMALL AREA OF FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE IOWA-MISSOURI BORDER, AS DEPICTED ON THE MAP. PLEASE NOTE
THAT SOME OF THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER (RFC) MAPS ARE STILL BEING UPDATED, SO
TO OBTAIN THE VERY LATEST FLOOD MAPS PLEASE CONSULT:
HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/RFC/RFC.PHP.



OUT WEST, HIGH HEAT IS THE PREDOMINANT ISSUE, IN ASSOCIATION WITH RIDGING
EXPECTED BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. FROM JUNE 3-5, DAYTIME MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 12-24 DEGREES ABOVE-NORMAL ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FOR MANY
LOCATIONS, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY SURPASS 90 DEGREES F, AND SOME LOCALES
IN CENTRAL IDAHO, SOUTHERN WASHINGTON, AND NORTHERN OREGON MAY REACH 100-105
DEGREES F. THIS BROAD REGION OF ANTICIPATED MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME, INCLUDING MOST OF MONTANA AND NORTHERN
WYOMING ON JUNE 6-7. AN AREA OF EXCESSIVE HEAT HAS BEEN DESIGNATED ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM JUNE 3-6. IN THIS CASE, HEAT
INDICES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 105-115 DEGREES F.



SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE PREDICTED TO AFFECT ALASKA DURING THIS
PERIOD, BUT NONE ARE EXPECTED TO BRING HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE
STATE. OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR, A THERMAL LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON JUNE 3RD.

FOR WEDNESDAY JUNE 08 - TUESDAY JUNE 14: FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THIS PERIOD (JUNE
8), A SLIGHT RISK OF MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS POSTED FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BOTH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES, AND MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WHERE THE GEFS REFORECAST TOOL INDICATES THAT
DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES HAVE AT LEAST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING THE
85TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY. A MODERATE RISK OF MUCH ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS PREDICTED FOR MONTANA, NORTHERN WYOMING, AND SMALL PARTS OF
NEIGHBORING STATES DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. THIS REPRESENTS THE TAIL END OF THE
PREDICTED HEAT WAVE ACROSS A SIGNIFICANT FRACTION OF THE WESTERN CONUS, AT
LEAST FOR THE TIME BEING.



ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR, VALID ON MAY 24, SEVERE, OR GREATER
INTENSITY, DROUGHT COVERS 3.69 PERCENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR AREAS
(INCLUDING ALASKA, HAWAII, AND PUERTO RICO), A DECREASE FROM 4.07 PERCENT LAST
WEEK. THIS IS THE LOWEST COVERAGE SINCE OCTOBER 2010.

FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA

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