Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS

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FOPA11 PHFO 280237
PWSCP1

TROPICAL STORM KILO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032015
0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KILO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 169.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

JOHNSTON ISL   34 88   2(90)   1(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
JOHNSTON ISL   50 18   4(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
JOHNSTON ISL   64  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

15N 170W       34  2   5( 7)   4(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)   1(14)

20N 170W       34  1   3( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)

MARO REEF      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

15N 175W       34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)  11(18)   7(25)   2(27)   1(28)
15N 175W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
15N 175W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

20N 175W       34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)  12(17)  25(42)   5(47)   1(48)
20N 175W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   3(14)   1(15)
20N 175W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)

25N 175W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   6(14)
25N 175W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

LAYSAN         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

LISIANSKI      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)

PEARL/HERMES   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)

MIDWAY         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)

KURE           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)

$$
FORECASTER BURKE






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