Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
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000
FOPZ12 KNHC 162033
PWSEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
2100 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  13(19)   6(25)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  11(17)   5(22)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)

LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   4(12)

LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)

CULIACAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)

MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)

SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   9(15)   2(17)   X(17)

P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   9(14)  11(25)   2(27)   X(27)
P VALLARTA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   2( 2)  13(15)  20(35)   6(41)   1(42)   X(42)
BARRA NAVIDAD  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
BARRA NAVIDAD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

MANZANILLO     34  X   2( 2)  15(17)  13(30)   5(35)   1(36)   X(36)
MANZANILLO     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
MANZANILLO     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

L CARDENAS     34  1   9(10)  12(22)   3(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)

ZIHUATANEJO    34  1   9(10)   6(16)   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)

ACAPULCO       34  2   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

P MALDONADO    34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)  12(25)   3(28)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)

ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  16(23)   5(28)   X(28)
ISLAS MARIAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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