Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 220831
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
330 AM EST WED FEB 22 2017

...VALID 12Z WED FEB 22 2017 - 12Z THU FEB 23 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
65 ESE FLL 60 ESE HST 40 SE HST 10 ESE HST MIA 10 WNW BCT
15 SW SUA VRB 10 S TIX 20 NNW DAB 20 ESE SGJ 40 ESE SGJ
60 NE DAB.


...FLORIDA EAST COAST...

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL BE TAKING AN UNUSUAL
SOUTHEAST TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND DOWN THROUGH
FAR SOUTH FL AND THE FL KEYS WED AND WED NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY
PULLING TOWARD THE BAHAMAS THURS MORNING. BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE FL PENINSULA AS THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHES...WITH A RATHER STRONG AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE INTERACTING WITH A RATHER DEEP POOL OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE AND SOME MODEST INSTABILITY. SOME OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM CONEST AND THE 00Z NSSL-WRF...ALONG WITH
SOME HINTS OUT OF THE HRRR GUIDANCE...INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MORE FOCUSED AREA OF BANDED CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR AND PERHAPS
OVER AREAS OF THE FL EAST COAST AND ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR FORT
PIERCE NORTH UP TO AROUND THE DAYTONA BEACH AREA...AND INCLUDING
THE CAPE CANAVERAL VICINITY AND SPACE COAST. STRONGER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH INCREASING S/SE FLOW AND MOISTURE FLUX AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP LAYER LOW CENTER WILL HELP FOCUS THIS
ACTIVITY WHICH SHOULD TEND TO ALSO BE WITHIN AT LEAST A MODEST
INSTABILITY GRADIENT. OVERALL...THE HEAVIEST RAINS SHOULD STAY
OFFSHORE...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
ALONG THE COAST TO WARRANT A MARGINAL RISK AREA. LOCALLY AS MUCH
AS 2 TO 4+ INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

ORRISON
$$





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