Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 140136
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
935 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

...VALID 03Z MON JUL 14 2014 - 00Z TUE JUL 15 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
LHQ AGC 10 SW IDI 25 W AVP 25 NE AVP 10 ENE MSV 15 N MGJ POU
15 NNW HPN TEB LOM 15 S THV 25 ENE W99 20 SSE EKN 20 WNW BKW
25 NW EKQ 30 NNE HOP 15 NNE CIR 25 NNW CGI 20 W MDH 35 SSW BAK
HAO LHQ.

STILL NO CHANGES HERE.  AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THIS PERIOD---WITH POTENTIAL FOR TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
CLOSED LOW SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER LAKES. PW VALUES
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE--1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN.  THIS AND FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE
CONVECTION ACROSS THESE AREAS.  THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING CONVECTION IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWEST TO
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.  IN AREAS OF TRAINING OR AREAS THAT
HAVE MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVE ACROSS---RUNOFF ISSUES
MAY DEVELOP FROM SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 1"+.


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 W MNH LHX 30 SE LHX 30 W SPD 30 N CAO 35 W CAO 55 SSE RTN
45 E LVS 25 SE LVS 25 N CQC 25 ESE SAF 15 NNW SAF 10 N SKX
20 WSW VTP 35 NE MYP 10 W MNH.

THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS MAINTAINED IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHERE PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEAKENING FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.  WHILE THIS INITIAL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND SUBSEQUENTLY LEAD TO WEAKENING UPSLOPE FLOW FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH---THERE SHOULD BE RE-STRENGTHENING OF THE UPSLOPE POST
FRONTAL FLOW DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND
SURGE OF COLD AIR SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE
NATION.  ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE---WITH ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE
FFG VALUES HAVE LOWERED FROM YESTERDAY`S CONVECTION.



...SOUTHWESTERN STATES INTO SOUTHERN CA...

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD PUSH OF MUCH
ABOVE PW VALUES FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO AZ---SOUTHERN NV AND
SOUTHERN CA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FAIRLY WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE
NORTHERN BAJA AND SOUTHERN CA COASTS.  WITH POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION TO AGAIN ENHANCE TO THE NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION AND
THE CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PW AXIS PUSHING INTO OR CLOSER
TO THE SOUTHWEST---THERE MAY BE ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES AS
INCREASING MONSOONAL ACTIVITY AFFECTS SOUTHERN AZ INTO SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA THIS PERIOD.

TERRY
$$





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