Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 280109
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
909 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

...VALID 03Z THU AUG 28 2014 - 00Z FRI AUG 29 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 NNE AWG 20 NNE CDJ 15 NNE SLN 40 N DDC 45 SE GLD 10 ENE ITR
45 NNE LHX 30 ENE COS 20 SSW GXY 10 NNW BFF 30 E SIB 45 WSW CUT
35 NNW IEN 15 NE PHP 25 SW PIR 30 N VTN 25 WSW TIF 15 N ODX
15 NW FBL 15 ESE DEH 10 NNE AWG.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 E SLB 10 SSE EBS 15 WNW TNU 20 S CNC 25 ENE STJ 25 SSW AFK
10 NNW LNK 20 NNW FET 25 E SUX 15 E SLB.



...LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES---CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MS
VALLEY...

THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS EXPANDED
BOTH TO THE WEST AND EAST ALONG THE AXIS OF EXPECTED QPF THIS
PERIOD FROM IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEAST CO---ACROSS MUCH OF
NE--NORTHERN KS INTO IA AND NORTHERN MO.  A CONTINUED ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS PERIOD FROM THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES--EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
PUSH OF THE GREAT BASIN CLOSED LOW AND HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THIS
CLOSED LOW.  STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE INITIALLY
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THESE AREAS---AND
ENHANCED UVVS FROM UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
HEIGHT FALLS---WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE
AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES---2-2.5+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE MEAN FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT.  HEAVY
TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION TOTALS POSSIBLE THIS
PERIOD---WITH THE LATITUDE OF THE MAX QPF AXIS A POINT OF
DISAGREEMENT IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE.  THE FARTHER SOUTHWARD
OVERALL AXIS OF THE GFS...HI RES WRF-ARW...WRF-NMMB...AND NSSL WRF
WERE FAVORED...AND ARE GETTING SOME BACKING FROM RECENT HRRR/RAP
RUNS.  WHILE THE GFS DOES HAVE A SOUTHERN QPF AXIS FROM FAR
NORTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHEAST NE---NORTHWEST MO---SOUTHWEST IA---IT
ALSO HAS A NORTHERN MAX FROM NORTH CENTRAL NE INTO EAST CENTRAL
SD.  THIS PORTION OF THE GFS LOOKS SUSPICIOUS AND WAS NOT GIVEN
MUCH WEIGHT WITH THE LATEST QPF OR EXCESSIVE OUTLOOKS.  WITH
RECENT HEAVY RAINS LOWERING FFG VALUES---A MODERATE RISK AREA WAS
ALSO INCLUDED FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NE---FAR NORTHWEST MO INTO
SOUTHWEST IA.

FOR FURTHER DETAILS REGARDING ANY ACTIVE MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSIONS (MPD) WITHIN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK AREA...
PLEASE REFER TO THE LINK FROM THE WPC HOME PAGE ABOVE THE TOP NEWS
OF THE DAY... OR GO DIRECTLY TO THE MPD PAGE:
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/METWATCH/METWATCH_MPD.PHP.

ORAVEC/HURLEY

$$





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