Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 020349
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1148 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 2015

...VALID 0348Z WED SEP 02 2015 - 12Z WED SEP 02 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

LATEST SATELLITE IR/WV LOOPS SHOW EARLY STAGES OF MCS DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN...OUT AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN SD AND NORTHERN NE. THE
COMPACT AREA OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING (UPPER DIVERGENCE) IS
INTERSECTING A THERMODYNAMICALLY-RICH ENVIRONMENT...WITH MUCAPES
ON THE ORDER OF 3000+ J/KG...PWS OF 1.5+ INCHES...AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL INFLOW OF 25-35 KTS ABOVE THE DECOUPLED LAYER (~925 MB).
THESE PARAMETERS WILL LIKELY FURTHER UPSCALE GROWTH
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE STRENGTH/DEPTH OF THE INSTABILITY (AND
UPDRAFTS) CAPABLE OF INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ON THE ORDER OF 2-2.5
INCHES PER HOUR. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE DCAPE...EXPECT THE
CONVECTION TO REMAIN FORWARD PROPAGATING INITIALLY...HOWEVER...THE
PRESENCE OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL ALSO SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR RE-GENERATION OF CONVECTION (AND INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING) AS THE ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE ELEVATED.
GIVEN SOME OF THE INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ALREADY BEING OBSERVED
WITHIN THE DEVELOPING MESOCYCLONE...LOCALIZED SHORT TERM RUNOFF
ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED CONSIDERING THE CURRENT FFG. FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION OR FFGMPD #475.

HURLEY

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