Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 011858
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 02/0000 UTC THRU OCT 03/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...GREAT LAKES...

THE STAGNANT UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN INFLUENCING THE WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL
MOVE FROM THE OH VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. WHILE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE DISPLACED WELL
TO THE EAST OF THE REGION...THERE WILL REMAIN A NARROW SWATH OF 1
TO POSSIBLY 1.25 INCH PWATS LIFTING CYCLONICALLY ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS WITHIN
THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS ARE LIKELY WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS LAKES HURON AND ERIE. IT DOES APPEAR THE
MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY MAY RESIDE JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER
WITH CANADA. THE FORECAST WAS FORMULATED WITH A MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH SOME EMPHASIS ON THE 00Z HRW-ARW AS WELL AS QPF
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY PLOTS.


...EASTERN U.S....

FARTHER EAST...A SLOW-MOVING TO NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN A FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG COASTAL REGIONS OF
THE EAST COAST. IT DOES APPEAR THE STRONGER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
JUST OFFSHORE WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. EXCEPT FOR
THE 12Z NAM WHICH WAS DISPLACED WESTWARD...MODELS WERE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS AREA OF THE COUNTRY. FOLLOWED
CONTINUITY WHERE NECESSARY AND ADDED SOME DETAIL VIA
HIGH-RESOLUTION CAMS AND ANY NOTABLE QPF TRENDS.


...NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...

A LEAD SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA/ALBERTA BORDER DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BROAD MID-LEVEL
ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER THE
DEVELOP OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPPER INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR EARLY
IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE THE HEIGHT FALLS
LIFT NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE COMBINATION OF THE
SYSTEM BEING PROGRESSIVE COUPLED WITH NEAR AVERAGE MOISTURE IN
PLACE TENDS TO KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHTER END. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF WHILE MAINTAINING
QUITE A BIT OF CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

ON THE HEELS OF THE INITIAL IMPULSE LIFTING TOWARD THE UPPER
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BE A MORE ROBUST CLOSED LOW SINKING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED LEADING TO A MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT. AIDED BY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND
SUFFICIENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...EXPECT RAINFALL TO MOVE INTO THE OR
CASCADES AND ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN CA BETWEEN 06Z-12Z ON SUNDAY.
BEFORE THIS OCCURS...THE WA CASCADES SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF
LIGHT/MODERATE UPSLOPE-DRIVEN SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO THE WESTERLY
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE. WPC CREATED THE QPF VIA
A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS LED BY THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE 12Z IN-HOUSE PSEUDO-ENSEMBLE BIAS-CORRECTED
MODEL.


RUBIN-OSTER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML

24HR QP VT 03/00Z
 0.01 442630 447632 451635 454645 455656 454664 453668 454674
      455685 455695 455701 457706 464704 469704 474707 479712
      482722 484726 485732 486742 486761 487775 489784 490795
      489804 489814 489820 487824 481839 474852 471860 467866
      460876 455880 450882 447885 443886 434886 427886 425884
      421884 411884 408883 406886 405889 404894 405905 405915
      397917 385893 382887 378883 376880 375876 375871 373867
      373859 374849 374844 375839 376832 382819 385811 386800
      386792 389785 393780 394777 393775 388770 386764 384761
      381762 375765 369768 361770 354774 348778 343783 338787
      329794 319803 314807 308814 307820 304826 301833 297838
      292843 286846 282851 279858 278866 279877 283891 290904
      290920 281947 280952 278956 274962 268962 263958 259956
      256951 251947 249940 246933 245929 241926 237922 235920
      233916 231911 231903 232895 231885 233877 236872 246863
      247856 245849 239846 233844 230843 229840 227831 226823
      227817 231805 234798 238792 243781 255773 277759 280758
      282756 290755 304747 311744 315740 323728 330718 339706
      347698 352693 356687 363674 370662 373658 378654 389646
 0.01 561037 562024 560020 561015 562009 563001 562987 559979
      555974 551973 547973 541978 534978 531980 527980 519983
      512988 508994 503998 496000 492003 487009 484015 482027
      473027 467026 461030 458038 460047 461050 458052 456054
      454062 455064 454067 452071 449072 445070 443067 440067
      436069 433068 430070 425077 419090 416093 411093 408091
      404090 399094 396101 391108 384113 372118 370121 369125
      371129 373130 376132 380131 387128 392125 395123 400125
      407127 411127 415128 418131 420135 423137 426136 425141
      426143 427148 429150 431152 434151 441148 450146 454149
      455152 458153 461150 468147 473144 477139 479136 481130
      482123 486125 489124 492117 497110 504108 507108 509111
      516115 516119 515121 513126 509135 506157 499170 490187
      486195 484198 480201 476204 471208 464209 461207 458209
      455210 452209 450205 449201 447196 443196 441199 437201
      426198 411199 404201 393198 391196 387195 380192 376191
      374195 374200 377209 383215 398221 401223 398226 394226
      391224 387223 385227 380233 380238 382241 388248 385256
      386265 387268 389270 393275 396278 399280 407282 410281
      416282 422282 428279 433273 441271 444271 447273 452278
      459284 463283 472280 483274 489273 492272 496273 500275
      503278 507279 508271 507266 510263 511258 514253 516251
      516246 515242 509224 504219 500212 499203 500198 503195
      507188 512190 515192 522197 527204 531206 534207 538203
      542192 543183 540175 538172 538165 539149 542139 546129
      550124 554114 557102 557089 557078 555067 553061 561037
 0.01 527052 524049 520047 515046 510046 507048 503050 502053
      505054 508057 513057 517058 521056 525055 527052
 0.01 438088 438086 439083 439081 437079 436081 435081 434083
      434085 434088 435089 437089 438088
 0.01 389993 389986 386981 382979 378981 371987 359987 353987
      351989 348989 346992 344998 347001 351002 357003 362001
      371003 381999 385997 389993 389993
 0.01 365016 365012 363009 361007 356007 353009 349009 343011
      338015 335018 334021 334030 336032 341032 346028 352024
      357021 361021 363018 365016
 0.01 353122 354115 351110 344107 339105 334105 328105 323102
      320099 316099 314101 313107 316116 325118 334117 338120
      340124 346127 350126 353122
 0.01 226046 227056 231063 241074 248079 253079 258081 265085
      275086 284084 290081 293078 296074 297065 297060 299053
      302046 300039 297035 293033 291033 289030 291029 294027
      296024 296021 290019 281021 273019 270021 270027 276030
      279030 281032 284033 285035 283036 280038 272042 265041
      258037 254029 255024 258021 262013 262002 259996 259988
      256985 252983 245986 237989 234991 232994 231003 231013
      228029
 0.01 290033 288031 286031 285033 286034 288034 290033
 0.25 426635 440638 446644 447650 447656 446666 445676 444684
      441693 437698 432700 429699 424694 419686 415681 412679
      409681 406689 404699 403719 402729 399736 394741 386746
      380750 372752 366756 360761 349771 336781 326790 314800
      307805 300807 296809 294811 292814 287816 279818 274823
      268826 270836 270841 267842 265838 265833 256824 254820
      251817 245811 241811 239808 239804 242797 247791 252788
      260784 270781 277778 289770 301762 308757 313751 322741
      332729 342717 352704 362695 370682 376666 380663 384663
      388663 391666 394668 397665 402659 406648 413639
 0.25 545090 545083 547076 542069 539068 535069 530072 523074
      515072 507071 499071 493074 488078 484085 483092 485097
      487099 494097 506091 512091 519090 525092 532091 535091
      538089 543091 545090
 0.25 479241 480237 480233 478231 475230 470232 466232 464219
      461216 455216 445218 436218 426218 418224 414220 413218
      410218 408218 407221 407225 404229 399231 393235 398245
      401249 405252 414258 423257 432256 442253 451250 459244
      477243 479241
 0.25 496038 496036 496034 494034 492034 491035 489036 487038
      485040 486042 487044 489043 490043 492042 494041 495039
      496038
 0.25 480756 480750 478746 474737 471727 469723 466721 459725
      456729 456735 456741 454737 448732 445732 440733 433736
      420745 418745 415748 415753 417757 423763 421773 419781
      416790 415795 412798 409805 407815 405819 406824 408827
      413827 420828 428829 433830 435833 439843 440854 440862
      442867 445870 448871 452869 459865 463858 467851 473833
      476824 479814 481804 482794 481783 480773 480756
 0.25 449114 450109 450105 448098 443096 439098 436099 432098
      431095 428096 425101 423106 427106 428108 432109 437112
      441116 445118 449114
 0.25 403216 403215 403214 402212 400211 399209 398208 397207
      395206 394205 392204 390204 388206 390208 391210 393211
      393212 394213 396214 396215 398216 399217 401217 403216
      403216
 0.25 282908 282904 280899 276891 274882 272869 270859 266851
      263853 262856 258864 254873 248878 244885 245893 251909
      256917 258927 258933 260937 266943 270944 274942 279937
      281931 281926 282914 282908
 0.25 257069 258064 256061 252057 247050 243045 240038 237036
      234037 232045 232053 235059 240064 247068 254070 257069
 0.25 255008 255004 255002 253999 251997 247996 244996 240998
      239999 238003 240007 242009 243011 245012 249014 252013
      254010 255008
 0.50 517080 517077 516077 515077 513076 512076 511076 512077
      513079 515079 516080 517080
 0.50 507081 506080 505078 504078 503078 502078 500078 498080
      497082 496082 495083 494084 493086 494088 496088 498087
      499087 501087 503086 503085 505084 506083 506082 507081
 0.50 477782 476757 472751 467746 462750 458759 458763 459767
      462775 456791 455794 453792 450782 447775 445771 444766
      442757 439753 436752 433753 430757 431764 431774 432779
      434783 435785 435788 433790 426793 421798 417804 416814
      418819 420821 424821 427819 430812 432809 434806 438806
      441808 443818 443829 446838 450840 452840 457835 459834
      458830 459820 462812 464809 468808 471806 473803 476792
      477782
 0.50 454238 453234 451232 445231 436230 431226 434225 432223
      425230 419230 412229 407232 400234 400240 405245 411248
      419250 431250 443246 452240 454238
 0.50 450224 448224 448225 449225 450224
 0.50 440658 436649 429644 427642 421643 414648 413654 415658
      420668 424677 427681 430684 433684 436681 438672 440660
      440658
 0.50 392706 391693 388680 387676 384671 380671 378674 375682
      371690 365697 359702 350716 345722 340729 336736 330743
      319754 309767 298779 293785 286790 282792 280795 283802
      286805 292803 301801 309799 315794 328783 342772 353761
      358756 362752 363748 369743 377738 383732 388726 392716
      392706
 0.50 279910 278904 275898 273894 271886 270880 268873 264870
      261872 254881 251887 252895 257905 261917 264923 267927
      270928 273927 276923 278916 279910
 0.50 249064 250061 248060 246058 245054 243052 241051 239049
      237049 238051 238055 239059 240061 242062 246063 249064
      249064
 0.50 250004 250002 249001 247001 246000 244001 243002 244002
      245004 247005 249005 250004
 1.00 430241 430238 426237 425237 421237 418235 414235 412235
      410238 410240 413242 416244 420244 423245 426244 429243
      430241
 1.00 382711 382705 380700 374699 368702 363708 360713 357721
      357729 360731 363731 370729 376725 380718 382711
 1.00 357750 355746 352745 348747 345750 340755 335760 330764
      325769 322774 325776 328774 336771 342767 347763 352757
      356752 357750
 1.00 273908 272902 269896 267892 265884 262882 259887 260893
      262900 264906 266911 268913 271913 273908
 1.50 422241 421240 419239 418239 419242 420241 422241
 1.50 377712 376708 374707 370707 367710 366712 365715 365719
      367722 370721 372720 375717 377714 377712

$$





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