Recreational Report
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
SXUS43 KTOP 202324
RECTOP

EVENING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
624 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

ORGANIZED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE A PRETTY LOW PROBABILITY THIS
EVENING WITH MODELS SHOWING THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND SEE IF IT IS ABLE
TO HOLD TOGETHER ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL. AS FOR
WIND SHEAR, THINK CHANCES ARE TO SMALL TO KEEP THE MENTION OF LLWS
AT TOP. RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS ARE NOT AS STRONG WITH THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION AS THE INDICATED LAST NIGHT AND MODELS PROG A DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT HELPING TO KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM COMPLETELY DECOUPLING.

.THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:                          811 PM

    SURFACE WIND FORECAST:           7 PM  180/15 MPH

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 602 PM):        200FT  200/19 MPH
                                      400FT  201/25 MPH
                                      600FT  202/26 MPH
                                      800FT  204/26 MPH
                                     1000FT  204/26 MPH
                                     1500FT  200/26 MPH
                                     2000FT  199/26 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 600 PM):      SURFACE 203/15 MPH
                                       24FT  202/19 MPH
                                      186FT  202/21 MPH
                                      473FT  202/22 MPH
                                      898FT  203/23 MPH
                                     1449FT  203/24 MPH
                                     2119FT  204/25 MPH
                                     2862FT  205/25 MPH
                                     3687FT  206/26 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 PM):      SURFACE 178/07 MPH
                                     SURFACEFT  182/11 MPH
                                      176FT  187/13 MPH
                                      462FT  190/16 MPH
                                      886FT  193/17 MPH
                                     1439FT  196/19 MPH
                                     2105FT  198/20 MPH
                                     2851FT  201/21 MPH
                                     3672FT  204/22 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 PM):      SURFACE 117/07 MPH
                                     SURFACEFT  121/09 MPH
                                      174FT  134/12 MPH
                                      460FT  156/15 MPH
                                      877FT  193/17 MPH
                                     1439FT  196/19 MPH
                                     2105FT  198/20 MPH
                                     2851FT  201/21 MPH
                                     3672FT  204/22 MPH

    DENSITY ALTITUDE:                7 PM  3845 FT

.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
    SUNRISE:        641 AM
    SURFACE WIND:   7 AM  190/13 MPH
                    9 AM  200/15G22 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$







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