River Summary
Issued by NWS

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000
SRAK48 PACR 292315
RVAAK
AKZALL-292200-

ALASKA SPRING BREAKUP SUMMARY
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
3 PM ADT APRIL 29 2016

...SPRING BREAKUP SUMMARY FOR ALASKA....

FLOOD WARNING/WATCHES:
NONE

ALASKA BREAKUP SUMMARY NOTABLE EVENTS FROM PAST 24 HOURS -
ICE JAM ON YUKON RIVER NEAR EAGLE RELEASED THURSDAY NIGHT. RIVER LEVELS ARE
FALLING AT EAGLE.

THE SPRING BREAKUP FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY RATED AS LOW TO LOW-MODERATE
STATEWIDE WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE SAG RIVER ON THE NORTH SLOPE WHICH IS
MODERATE TO HIGH. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON OBSERVED SNOWPACK AND ICE THICKNESS
REPORTS AND MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS.
CURRENTLY BREAKUP AT MOST LOCATIONS IS EARLIER THAN NORMAL WITH SOME LOCATIONS
HAVING A RECORD EARLY BREAKUP.

WEATHER - LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA AND A RIDGE
OVER NORTHERN ALASKA AND INTO WESTERN CANADA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
ABOVE NORMAL AND RAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST. WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER FOR DAYS 6-14 INDICATE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE ENTIRE STATE.

FOR WEATHER... ICE AND SNOW CONDITIONS... PLEASE REFER TO
HTTP://WWW.APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/FCST.PHP?PRODUCT=AGAK78PACR AND FOR VARIOUS SNOW
GRAPH OPTIONS... REFER TO THE APRFC WEB SITE AT HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV OR
THE NRCS WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.AK.NRCS.USDA.GOV/SNOW/DATA/CURRENT.HTML

RECENT BREAKUP ACTIVITY ACROSS THE STATE-

*********************************************************************
*EVEN THOUGH A PARTICULAR RIVER OR REACH MAY BE DESCRIBED AS MOSTLY *
*OPEN OR OPEN... IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR RUNS OF ICE AND DEBRIS TO *
*MOVE THROUGH AS HEADWATERS UPSTREAM BREAKUP.  PLEASE USE CAUTION AT*
*ALL TIMES WHEN ATTEMPTING TO NAVIGATE RIVERS.                      *
*********************************************************************

SUSITNA RIVER...
THE SUSITNA RIVER IS OPEN FROM NEAR CANTWELL TO THE MOUTH. CHUNK ICE RUNS
ARE LIKELY FROM HEADWATER TRIBUTARIES TO THE MOUTH.

SKWENTNA AND YENTNA RIVER..
THE ICE IS OUT ON THE SKWENTNA AND YENTNA RIVERS. SOME IN PLACE ICE LIKELY
REMAINS IN HEADWATERS ABOVE SKWENTNA. CHUNK ICE RUNS ARE LIKELY ON THE RIVERS.

TANANA RIVER..
THE ICE WENT OUT AT MANLEY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE TANANA RIVER WAS REPORTED
TO BE OPEN BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW MANLEY TO VERY NEAR THE CONFLUENCE WITH
YUKON. THE RIVER FROM NENANA TO NORTHWAY IS OPEN.

COPPER RIVER...
THE COPPER RIVER IS MOSTLY OPEN FROM ITS HEADWATER AREA TO CHITINA. SOME IN
PLACE ICE REMAINS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGES IN THE CANYON.

KUSKOKWIM...
THE TRIPOD AT MCGRATH MOVED OUT ON SUNDAY. THE RIVER IS MOSTLY OPEN AT
MCGRATH. WATER LEVELS REMAIN LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. STONY RIVER
REPORTED OCCAISIONAL LIGHT RUNS OF ICE TUESDAY. THE RIVER IS OPEN
WITH OCCASIONAL CHUNK ICE DOWNSTREAM FROM STONY RIVER TO THE MOUTH

YUKON RIVER...
THE YUKON RIVER BROKE UP AT EAGLE TUESDAY. DOWNRIVER LARGE OPEN LEADS
ARE VISIBLE FROM SATELLITE IMAGES FROM BELOW CALICO BLUFFS TO THE KANDIK RIVER
MOUTH. IN PLACE ICE REMAINS AT CIRCLE. SATELLITE IMAGES ALSO ARE SHOWING
SIGNFICANT STRETCHES OF OPEN WATER FROM THE CONFLUENCE OF INNOKO RIVER TO
MARSHAL.

THE FOLLOWING TABLE GIVES AN ESTIMATION OF FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR
VARIOUS LOCATIONS AROUND THE STATE AND BASIN RUNOFF VOLUMES.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SNOWMELT RUNOFF VOLUME...EXPECTED WATER VOLUME FROM SNOWMELT DURING
                         THE MELT SEASON.

FLOOD POTENTIAL...THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING FROM SNOWMELT AND/OR
                  ICE JAMS.  THIS IS INITIALLY CALCULATED BASED ON THE FLOOD
                  FREQUENCY FOR THE 2000 TO 2015 HISTORICAL RECORD AND ADJUSTED
                  TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

*  AVERAGE BREAKUP DATES ARE FOR THE PERIOD 1980 THROUGH 2015 AND ARE
      CALCULATED FOR LOCATIONS WITH AT LEAST 5 YEARS OF DATA.
** ACTUAL BREAKUP DATE FOR THIS YEAR
---------------------------------------------------------------------

                      SNOWMELT   FLOOD      AVERAGE  NO. OF  FORECAST
RIVER - REACH         RUNOFF     POTENTIAL  BREAKUP  YEARS   BREAKUP
                      VOLUME                DATE *    USED    DATE
-------------         ---------- ---------  -------  ------  --------
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE

KENAI RIVER

ANCHOR RIVER          AVERAGE    NONE        04/14     11     3/18**

MATANUSKA RIVER       AVERAGE                04/30
SUSITNA RIVER                     LOW
  GOLD CREEK                      LOW        05/03      8
  SUNSHINE                        LOW        05/03     27     4/16**

YENTNA RIVER          AVERAGE
  LAKE CREEK                      LOW        05/01     25     4/14**

SKWENTNA RIVER        AVERAGE
  SKWENTNA                        LOW        05/01     21     4/13**

COPPER RIVER BASIN    BELOW
  GAKONA RVR @ HWY                LOW        05/02     29     4/21**
  GULKANA   @ HWY                 LOW        05/01     28     4/20**

CHENA RIVER           AVERAGE
  CHENA LAKES PROJECT
  FAIRBANKS                       LOW        04/26     24     4/22**

TANANA RIVER          BELOW
  CHISANA @ NORTHWAY              LOW        04/26     26     4/11**
  SALCHA                          LOW
  FAIRBANKS                       LOW        05/01     17     4/18**
  NENANA                          LOW        05/02     36     4/23**
  MANLEY                          LOW        05/04     26     4/28**

KUSKOKWIM RIVER       AVERAGE
  NIKOLAI                         LOW        04/24     30     4/11**
  MCGRATH                         LOW        05/07     36     4/25**
  STONY RIVER                     LOW        05/06     28     4/23**
  SLEETMUTE                       LOW        05/07     27     4/18**
  RED DEVIL                       LOW        05/06     30     4/19**
  CROOKED CREEK                   LOW        05/07     30     4/21**
  ANIAK                           LOW        05/08     33     4/19**
  KALSKAG                         LOW        05/08     27     4/20**
  TULUKSAK                        LOW        05/10     24     4/21**
  AKIAK                           LOW        05/11     30     4/21**
  KWETHLUK                      LOW-MOD
  BETHEL                          LOW        05/12     35     4/20**
  NAPAKIAK                        LOW        05/13     21     4/20**

YUKON RIVER (UPPER)   AVERAGE
  DAWSON, YT                                 05/05     36     4/23**
  EAGLE                           LOW        05/05     35     4/26**
  CIRCLE                        LOW-MOD      05/10     32  04/30-05/02
  FORT YUKON                      LOW        05/11     32  05/01-05/04
  BEAVER                          LOW        05/11     20  05/01-05/04
  STEVENS VILLAGE                 LOW        05/12     19  05/02-05/06
  RAMPART                         LOW        05/12     21  05/02-05/05

YUKON RIVER (MIDDLE)  AVERAGE
  TANANA                          LOW        05/10     31  04/29-05/04
  RUBY                            LOW        05/12     30  05/01-05/06
  GALENA                        LOW-MOD      05/13     35  05/01-05/07
  KOYUKUK                       LOW-MOD      05/13     11  05/03-05/09
  NULATO                        LOW-MOD      05/13     20  05/03-05/09
  KALTAG                          LOW        05/14     30  05/04-05/10
  ANVIK                           LOW        05/17     29  05/05-05/11

YUKON RIVER (LOWER)   AVERAGE
  HOLY CROSS                      LOW        05/16     29  05/03-05/09
  RUSSIAN MISSION                 LOW        05/16     30  05/03-05/09
  MARSHALL                        LOW        05/16     24  05/03-05/09
  PILOT STATION                   LOW        05/17     19  05/05-05/11
  MOUNTAIN VILLAGE                LOW        05/18     29  05/06-05/12
  ALAKANUK/EMMONAK              LOW-MOD      05/22     31  05/10-05/16

KOYUKUK RIVER         BELOW
  BETTLES                         LOW        05/10     34  05/04-05/10
  ALLAKAKET                       LOW        05/10     30  05/07-05/13
  HUGHES                          LOW        05/11     29  05/07-05/13

SEWARD PENINSULA
  BUCKLAND                      LOW-MOD      05/18     26  05/04-05/10

KOBUK RIVER
  KOBUK                         LOW-MOD      05/16     32  05/05-05/11
  SHUNGNAK                        LOW        05/18     26  05/07-05/13
  AMBLER                          LOW        05/19     32  05/07-05/13

NOATAK RIVER          AVERAGE
  NOATAK                          LOW        05/20     21  05/09-05/15

BROOKS RANGE - NORTH  AVERAGE
  COLVILLE @ UMIAT                LOW        05/23     17  05/12-05/25
  COLVILLE @ COLVILLE           LOW-MOD      06/01     19  05/21-05/27

SAGAVANIRKTOK RIVER
  DALTON HWY                   MOD-HIGH


FOR MORE DETAIL AND TO SEE A FLOOD POTENTIAL MAP REFER TO OUR WEB
SITE AT HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV.

THE NEXT SPRING BREAKUP SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM ON SATURDAY
APRIL 30 2016

$$
DPS



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