Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 211605
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
UTZ000-NVZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/21/14 1605Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-15 1600Z  HANNA
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LOCATION...UTAH...NEVADA...
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ATTN WFOS...SLC...VEF...LKN...REV...
ATTN RFCS...CBRFC...NWRFC...CNRFC...
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EVENT...SATELLITE FEATURES FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWED THAT LARGE
SCALE PATTERN WAS FEATURING SW UPPER LOW SLOWLY EJECTING NE IN RESPONSE
TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS AND TROF AXIS NOW APPROACHING 140W.  AHEAD OF
EJECTING UPPER LOW, LARGE SCALE DEEP LAYER FORCING CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD
THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD MOSTLY LIGHT AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ONGOING OVER THE W PORTIONS OF UT AND NE NV.  GOES SOUNDER
INSTABILITY PRODUCTS WERE BEGINNING TO INDICATE DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING
OVER PORTIONS OF S NV AND S UT ALONG THE S EDGE OF MOIST CONVEYOR
BELT NEAR POTENTIAL INSTABILITY REDUCTION ZONE WITH DRY CONVEYOR BELT.
GOES SOUNDER INDICATES THAT INHIBITION STILL REMAINS OVER MOST OF S NV
BUT ENHANCING AND DEEPENING TCU WITH ISOLATED CB OVER PORTIONS OF N AZ
AND S UT WOULD SUGGEST CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA WITH
POTENTIAL FOR N/S TRAINING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF BEST MID LEVEL FORCING.
BLENDED PW ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING THAT BEST INTEGRATED MOISTURE FLUX HAS
SHIFTED INTO UT AND E PORTIONS OF NV WITH PW ANOMALIES OVER 200% ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES OVER MOST OF THE GREAT BASIN.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1600-2200Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, OVERALL PATTERN OF EJECTING
SE/NW ORIENTED TROF AXIS TOWARDS BENT BACK RIDGE AXIS IS A PATTERN THAT
THE MADDOX STUDIES HAVE SHOWN FAVORABLE FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN EVENTS IN
THE GREAT BASIN/WEST.  DECREASING WAVELENGTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAXIMIZE
DEEP LAYER ASCENT OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO EJECT NE.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF S UT AND N AZ AND FURTHER
BACK TO THE W IN CNTRL AND S NV BY THE AFTERNOON AS INHIBITION DECREASES
AHEAD OF MAIN CIRCULATION NOW MOVING INTO W NV. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION OVER PORTIONS OF N UT
AND N NV AND FAR S ID WHICH MAY LIMIT THE N EXTENT OF HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
ALTHOUGH FAVORED STORM MOTIONS ARE STEADILY TO THE N, UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILES WITHIN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT ON S EDGE OF MOIST
CONVEYOR BELT SHOULD ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL AREAS OF SHORT TERM TRAINING
WITHIN N/S FRONTOGENIC AXIS IMPLIED ON 12Z UA ANALYSIS TO ENHANCE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT.  TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TIME PERIOD AND BEYOND WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO VEER AS TROF AXIS BEGINS TO LIFT N/E OF AREA ALLOWING FOR MORE
PROGRESSION TO ANY CONVECTION AS BEST UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS N/E.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 4175 11375 4143 11182 3982 11060 3784 11075 3713 11230
3906 11638 4043 11794 4103 11735 4149 11629
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NNNN


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