Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS02 KWNS 160603
SWODY2
SPC AC 160602

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop on Sunday and Sunday
night across parts of the central Gulf Coast region including the
lower Mississippi Valley. A few damaging wind gusts and a marginal
tornado threat will be possible.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast...
An anticyclonic southwesterly mid-level flow pattern will be in
place across the Southeast on Sunday. At the surface, a moist
airmass over the Gulf of Mexico will advect northward into the
central Gulf Coast states during the day. Surface dewpoints are
forecast to reach the lower to mid 60s F from southeast Louisiana
eastward to the far western Florida Panhandle but instability should
remain weak. Thunderstorm development will be possible across the
northern Gulf of Mexico and far southern Louisiana Sunday morning.
This convection is forecast to move further inland by Sunday
afternoon. A chance for thunderstorm development will continue
Sunday evening into the overnight period from southern Louisiana
eastward into southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the far
western Florida Panhandle. Forecast soundings along this corridor
from Sunday afternoon into the overnight period show MLCAPE values
generally between 500 to 1000 J/kg. Moderate to strong deep-layer
shear along with enhanced low-level shear is forecast to persist
across the central Gulf Coast region from Sunday into Sunday night.
This should be enough for a marginal severe threat associated with
surface-based thunderstorms that remain in the moist airmass. A
marginal wind damage and/or tornado threat will be possible.

..Broyles.. 12/16/2017

$$


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