Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
000
ACUS02 KWNS 221710
SWODY2
SPC AC 221709

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. A FEW OF THE STORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EWD TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY 2
PERIOD.  ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-LEVELS...A TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER
THE CAROLINAS/GA WHILE A POWERFUL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE
NERN PACIFIC WILL INFLUENCE CONDITIONS OVER THE PACIFIC NW STATES.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A LEE TROUGH FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS NWD INTO
PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLD TO WIDELY
SCTD STORM ACTIVITY.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ALONG/SOUTH OF A REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS FL AND SOUTH TX.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
ELEVATED SCTD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY MORNING OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
IN RESPONSE TO A SLOW-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE N-CNTRL
STATES.  DIABATIC SURFACE HEATING WILL SERVE TO DESTABILIZE THIS
AREA IN WAKE OF EARLY DAY CLOUDS/MOIST CONVECTION WITHIN A NARROW
MOISTURE TONGUE EXTENDING NWD INTO CNTRL NEB FROM WRN KS/OK.  MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 500-1500 J/KG MLCAPE MAY DEVELOP WITHIN A NARROW
CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON.  LOW-LEVEL SLYS VEERING TO 25 KT WLY
FLOW THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN 30-35
KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR.  ISOLD STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP BY THE
21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME WITH A FEW STORMS POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF A
LOCALIZED LARGE HAIL/SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT BEFORE WEAKENING DURING
THE EVENING.

..SMITH.. 09/22/2014



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.