Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KARX 252322
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
622 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A FAIRLY  FLAT RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A CLOSED LOW WAS
SITUATED OVER THE PLAINS OF ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN CANADA WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
AT THE SURFACE AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE CLOSED LOW IN
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOW LOCATED
OVER SOUTHEAST SD/NORTHEAST NEB. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THIS LOW
INTO WESTERN IA/MO. THERE WAS A NOSE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT SPAWNED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING...BUT THIS HAS NOW SHIFTED
SOUTHEAST INTO IL. OTHERWISE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
QUITE A BIT OF LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS BEHIND THE DEPARTED
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE 70S.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE SEEING THAT OCCLUDED FRONT MOVE OVERHEAD
TONIGHT WITH A FAIRLY BAGGY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THINKING WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT...AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A FAIRLY DAMP LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER FROM TODAYS
RAINFALL...WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AND/OR STRATUS MAINLY
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS GOING INTO
TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...THERE ARE HINTS AT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS IA
INTO IL DURING THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO SOME JET ENERGY AND
POOLING CAPE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THAT AREA. BUFKIT SHOWS
A STRONG 850MB CAP IN PLACE WITH THIS CONVECTION POTENTIAL LOOKING
LIKE IT WILL BE ABOVE 700MB. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT OUR FORECAST
AREA DRY FOR NOW AND INCREASED CLOUDS SOME. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON A
SEASONABLY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A CLOSED LOW DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN
CANADA INTO NORTHERN MN/WI BY MORNING. LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW
ROTATES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. PLAN ON HIGHS COOLING INTO
THE 70S WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AS WELL IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL WI
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT FOR CLEARING AND COOL CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT FOR DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PLAN ON
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 69-75 DEGREE RANGE WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
DIPPING INTO THE LOW-MID 50S.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DEEP
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER/GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HEATING INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER. LOOK FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE
70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S...WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

STRATUS WITH VFR CEILINGS AT RST AND MVFR CEILINGS AT LSE BRIEFLY
BROKE OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IS NOW COMING BACK IN WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. MUCH OF TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY THIS STRATUS AS
LIGHTER WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN WESTERN MN
PREVENT MUCH MIXING. ANTICIPATING THAT A FEW HOURS OF COOLING
SHOULD ALLOW RST TO FALL DOWN TO MVFR IN CEILINGS.

THERE ARE SIGNS AFTER MIDNIGHT THAT DRYING WILL COME ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE WEST AT 3000 FT OR SO ABOVE THE GROUND. TWO
SCENARIOS EXIST AS A RESULT OF THIS DRYING. 1. CEILINGS GET
PUSHED LOWER...WHICH IS WHAT THE 00Z TAFS SHOW. HOWEVER THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR CEILINGS TO GET PUSHED EVEN LOWER. 2. CLEARING OF
THE CLOUDS. GIVEN THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE NEAR THE GROUND IN
PLACE...SHOULD SEE SOME BR FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE IDEA OF
CLOUDS HOLDING ON THROUGH THE NIGHT...HAVE ONLY DROPPED
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS CLEAR...IFR TO EVEN
VLIFR VISIBILITIES WOULD OCCUR.

GOOD DRYING LOOKS TO PLACE SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...THUS STILL
SHOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES CLIMBING TO VFR QUICKLY. THE VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...AJ


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.