Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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093
FXUS63 KARX 232033
AFDARX

AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
333 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 333 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Quite a busy day as strong thunderstorms/torrential downpours
overtook the area. This was due to a tropical tap/moisture transport
draped across I-80 in IA and ahead of a passing mid-level shortwave
trough. Numerous flood products have been issued as some communities
have seen street flooding/basement flooding. Precipitation and cloud
cover has kept temperatures in the 70s. Trouble is that the
dewpoints are also in the 70s. So quite a muggy/wet airmass.

Looking for a bit of a break in the action here between 3 and 5 pm,
but focus then turns to incoming cold front later this evening
along with another round of thunderstorms. Storm parameters show the
possibility for severe threat with better potential along/north of I-
94. Main threat would be damaging winds along with torrential
downpours and potential for some more localized flooding. Timing of
severe threat tonight looks to be in the 10pm to 4 am time frame.

Appears bulk of storms should depart east of the area by daybreak
with drier air filtering in for Sunday. Look for highs Sunday in the
80s, but more importantly dew points will be falling into the 60s
which will be much welcome.

Drier/cooler weather will last through Monday as high pressure
builds in from the Northern Plains. Look for highs Monday in the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Shower/thunderstorm chances return Tuesday afternoon, then last
through Saturday on and off as northwest flow in the mid/upper
levels ushers in several troughs across the region. Temperatures
look to be pleasant in the middle 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Showers and storms continue to develop along the warm front that
was in the I90 corridor early this afternoon. Based on radar
trends and guidance from the 23.16Z HRRR expect this will continue
into the middle or late afternoon hours before possibly getting a
break in the activity. Confidence in this break is not high so
have continued a VCTS at both sites into the early evening as the
HRRR shows scattered redevelopment along the warm front into the
early evening. Attention then turns to the incoming cold front and
whether there will be any activity along it that impacts the
airports. The signals in the models are strongly suggesting that
what develops along the front well to the northwest of the area
this afternoon will dissipate as it moves into a diminished CAPE
environment or stay closer to the short wave trough and remain
north of the airports. The 23.15Z CR-HRRR still suggest some
convective activity could make it with the cold front overnight so
will drop back from the categorical mention of TSRA to a VCTS.
MVFR conditions will be possible with the showers and storms with
some occasional IFR if the rain is heavy enough. The cold front
will come through Sunday morning swinging the winds around to the
west and returning VFR conditions.

&&

.ARX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04



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