Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KARX 310151
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
851 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...OVERNIGHT
ISSUED AT 851 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

WITH SPARTA...BLACK RIVER FALLS...AND VOLK FIELD HAVING WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KNOTS...THERE ARE SIGNS ALREADY THAT THE
DECOUPLING MAY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN. IN ADDITION...LOWER AND MID 30S
DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO THE AREA. DUE TO
THIS...EXPANDED THE FROST ADVISORY INTO ADAMS...CLARK...JACKSON...
JUNEAU...AND MONROE COUNTIES. ALSO WITH THE LIGHTER
WINDS...DECIDED TO LOWER THE TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING STRATUS/
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER ENTRENCHED ACROSS IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL IL. A
FEW SHOWERS WERE ALSO LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WAS CLEARING SKIES ACROSS
MN INTO FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...BUT CLEARING TREND SOUTHEASTWARD
SURE HAS BEEN A SLOW GO. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURE ACROSS OUR AREA
SUFFERING WITH READINGS THIS AFTERNOON ONLY IN THE 50S...OR SOME 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

FOR TONIGHT...LATEST RAP/NAM/NSSL WRF SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALL SHOW RATHER RAPID CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. PRETTY CHILLY AIRMASS HEADED INTO
THE AREA FOR TONIGHT...BUT WAS MODIFYING AS IT PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA...PER RAP/NAM 0.5KM TEMPERATURE TRENDS. ALSO...THERE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT OF A LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT TO KEEP LOWER
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. AS SUCH...NOT LOOKING FOR A HUGE FROST
POTENTIAL TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL WI. GRANTED...WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S...BUT SURFACE WINDS OF 5-8 MPH SHOULD
KEEP THINGS MIXED ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF WIDESPREAD FROST. WELL
SHELTERED/LOWER LYING AREAS WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FROST. WILL
THEREFORE KEEP FROST ADVISORY GOING FOR TAYLOR COUNTY WHERE GRADIENT
WILL BE A BIT WEAKER ALLOWING FOR PERHAPS A BIT MORE DECOUPLING OF
WINDS. KEPT ADVISORY OUT OF THE REST OF CENTRAL WI DUE TO THE
WINDS...BUT MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED BY THE EVENING SHIFT.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO
THE LOWER 40S.

DRY/COOL CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS CORE OF
THE HIGH ANCHORS ITSELF ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/SOUTHERN ONTARIO. LOOK
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. PLAN ON
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE...WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S
TUESDAY.

SMALLER-END SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WILL SNEAK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE ARE HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT THE
PRECIPITATION MAY TREND MORE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA WITH
STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING IN PLACE. WILL SEE WHAT SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS DO WITH THIS TREND. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY 20-30
POPS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTHERN WI.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN THE 70S.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD //THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY// THERE
ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS
ENOUGH MID-LEVEL ENERGY ROUNDS THE RIDGE FOR PERIODIC SHOWER/THUNDER
CHANCES. APPEARS HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COOLING A BIT SATURDAY INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

VISIBLE SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE STRATOCUMULS DECK IS
BECOMING MORE OPEN CELLULAR. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...EXPECT THAT SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR AT KRST AROUND
31.02Z AND KLSE AROUND 31.03Z. AT THE SAME TIME...THE NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. ON SUNDAY...THE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST
AND CLIMB TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR WIZ017-029-034-
     042>044.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...BOYNE


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.