Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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049
FXUS63 KARX 202016
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
316 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

At 3 PM, dry slot was approaching the Interstate 90 corridor. This
dry slot will provide some dry time for late this afternoon and
early evening...then as the upper level low and occluded front
moves through the area another band of rain will move through the
region. With most unstable CAPES climbing up to 500 J/kg, there
will be enough instability for isolated thunderstorms during the
mid to late evening. The RAP soundings suggest that there may be
brief window (1 to 2 hours) where there may be enough instability
and 1-6 km shear for the potential of some hail. If this occurred,
it would be in northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin.

Warm air advection will allow temperatures to continue to rise
this evening. As a result, our high temperatures for today will
likely not occur until then.

On Sunday, the closed low will move into northern Minnesota and
northern Wisconsin. The cyclonic flow associated with low will
keep skies cloudy across the region and there will be isolated to
scattered showers mainly north of Interstate 90.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

From Sunday night into Wednesday, an upper level low will slowly
transition southeast across the Upper Mississippi River Valley.
This low will produce periodic showers. There will be enough
instability on Monday and Monday evening (CAPES up to 1250 J/kg
south of Interstate 90) and Tuesday afternoon and evening (CAPES
up to 500 J/kg) for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to
develop. With limited shear, not anticipating any severe weather
with these storms. The heaviest rain will be south of Interstate 90
from Monday night into Tuesday. During this time frame, the
rainfall amounts will be up to a half inch.

From Wednesday night into Friday, a 500 mb ridge will provide dry
weather and near-normal temperatures.

On Friday night and Saturday, a short wave trough will be moving
northeast out of the southern Plains. Most unstable CAPES will
climb into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. However the shear remains
weak, so not anticipating and severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

Rain will continue at the TAF sites through much of the afternoon
with periods of IFR conditions expected in low stratus and BR. Low
stratus will linger into tonight with cloud bases in the 700 to
900 ft range. A cold front then moves through by late evening
with winds switching to the west and ceilings likely improving to
MVFR. The MVFR ceilings then look to continue through Sunday
morning with cloud bases of 1500 to 2500 ft. A few rain showers
are also possible on Sunday but the bulk of this activity will
probably stay north of the TAF sites. Also, with the passage of
the cold front, plan on increasing westerly winds.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

River Flood Warnings continue along the Mississippi River at
Wabasha, the Trempealeau River at Dodge, the Black River at
Galesville, the Yellow River at Necedah, and along the Wisconsin
River at Castle Rock Dam as runoff from the very heavy rain
earlier this week continues to move through the river system.

Through Wednesday, an upper level low will provide periodic rain.
The heaviest rain will be south of Interstate 90 from Monday
night into Tuesday. During this time frame, the rainfall amounts
will be up to a half inch.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boyne
LONG TERM...Boyne
AVIATION...Wetenkamp
HYDROLOGY...Boyne



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