Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 310729
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
230 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

BUNDLE THE TRICK OR TREATERS UP TONIGHT AS IT PROMISES TO BE A
CHILLY ONE. THE COLD CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREAS OF PCPN OVER WI -
SNOW/RAIN - WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MICH THIS
MORNING. PCPN WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF WI...BUT EXIT BY
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY START TO
HALLOWEEN...BUT SHOULD START SUBSIDING BY THE TIME THE KIDS VENTURE
OUT EARLY IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S
THOUGH...WITH THE WINDS MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE 20S.

THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY EASE ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE WINDS INCREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL GET A FEW DEGREE BUMP FROM THE COLD READINGS OF
TODAY/SAT...BUT WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLE COOL FOR THE START OF
NOVEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT MOVES IN SUNDAY QUICKLY DEPARTS
ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...HUGGING THE CANADIAN/US BORDER. MEANWHILE IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF THE MEAN
TROUGH INTO ILL. A SFC FRONT WILL LINK THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS.
SOME SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INDICATED VIA THE GFS WITH THE
BOUNDARY...MOSTLY MON EVENING AND HIGHLIGHTED ON THE 900 MB SFC.
FAIRLY BAGGY SFC GRADIENT THOUGH. GOOD PUSH OF 850 MB MOISTURE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH...BROUGHT IN BY A 40-45 KT LOW LEVEL
JET. SOME QG CONVERGENCE THOUGH THE LAYERS WILL ADD SOME LIFT. MODEL
TRENDS FAVOR KEEPING THE BULK OF THE QPF SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE GFS
AND GEM SUGGEST A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL LEAD THE MAIN PIECE
OF ENERGY INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A DECENT SHOT
FOR PCPN TO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE ECMWF
DOES NOT HAVE THIS RIPPLE...AND THUS IS DRIER FOR THE DAY MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THE 31.00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED ITS PCPN AXIS TO
THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...ALA THE GFS/GEM. CONFIDENCE INCREASING
FOR A WET NIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
STILL AMPLE TIME FOR ANOTHER SHIFT SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL STAY
WITH CONSENSUS FOR PCPN CHANCES.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES QUICK AND
MORE ZONAL. GFS/EC TRENDING TOWARD A DRY FORECAST...WITH TEMPS
AROUND THE SEASONABLE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT RST/LSE AS
COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS MEANS THAT THE WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN IN REGARD TO HOW HIGH THEY WILL GUST AND WHEN THEY
WILL START TO SUBSIDE. CURRENT WINDS ARE SUSTAINED AROUND 15-22KTS
WITH GUSTS UP BETWEEN 25-30KTS AND SHOULD STAY THIS WAY OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME GRADUAL SUBSIDING OF THE WINDS WILL
OCCUR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...HALBACH



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