Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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433
FXUS63 KARX 041953
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
153 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

CURRENTLY WATCHING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED N/S BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW MOVING EAST THROUGH EASTERN MN. AUTOMATED WEATHER
STATIONS INDICATING GENERALLY 1-2SM VISIBILITY UNDER THE HEAVIEST
REFLECTIVITY ON RADAR...SO THINKING AT LEAST A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF ACCUMULATION AS THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH.

DETERMINISTIC/MESO WRF MODELS SHOWING THIS WAVE ROLLING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TAPERING SNOW ACCUMULATION CHANCES
GOING INTO THIS EVENING. STILL LOOKING AT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/2 TO
PERHAPS AN INCH ON THE HIGHER END.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES OVERHEAD TONIGHT FOR CLEARING AND
COLD CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR LOWS TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE/BELOW ZERO.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TOWARD MORNING AHEAD OF
ANOTHER VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS.

MODELS INDICATING FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL PV-ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT TO ACHIEVE FULL COLUMN SATURATION FOR LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE REGION GOING INTO LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER SHOT OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 20S WITH
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS/LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

SOME WARMING TAKES PLACE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
FROM THE ALBERTA ROCKIES TOWARD NORTHERN WI. WILL ALSO SEE LOW-END
SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION WING AHEAD OF THE
LOW...BUT MOST OF THE MODELS KEEPING IT NORTH OF THE AREA.
BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
30S SUNDAY...WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE AREA.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WILL SEE A
CHANCE OF SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW. OTHERWISE...CHILLING DOWN SOME ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS SHOWING AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
PUTS US IN DEEPER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL DRAG COLDER
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION.

LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

BAND OF -SN WAS STILL APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AT MID-DAY...BUT HAS
SLOWED A BIT. NOW LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE KRST AREAS IN THE 1930-
2230Z PERIOD AND KLSE IN THE 2130-0030Z PERIOD. SOME IFR VSBYS IN
THE SNOW ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN. MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY WEAKENS
THIS SNOW BAND AS IT MOVES ACROSS...BUT DID INCLUDE A 2 HR TEMPO
PERIOD OF 2SM IN -SN AT BOTH SITES. ONCE THE MID LEVEL WAVE AND SNOW
BAND PASS...LOWER CLOUDS CLEAR OUT /CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF WEST-
CENTRAL MN AT THIS TIME/ AND CARRIED ONLY SCT CLOUD DECKS MUCH OF
TONIGHT. IF SKIES TREND MOSTLY CLEAR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WILL HAVE
WATCH FOR PATCHY BR ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON THIS
RIGHT NOW AND DID NOT INCLUDE ANY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING BR IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. NEXT WAVE IN THE FLOW ALREADY STARTS TO APPROACH
ON FRI. IMPACTS FRI MORNING WILL MAINLY BE AN INCREASE OF MID CLOUDS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES...WITH MORE LOWER CLOUDS AND -SN CHANCES
SPREADING IN LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RRS



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