Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 301724
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1224 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AND WINDY/COLDER CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWING A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN INTO NW IA. SCATTERED ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE PER RADAR MOSAIC WITH AN OCCASIONAL REPORT OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS MN. RAP SHOWING BETTER 850-300MB PV-ADVECTION MOVES SOUTH OF
THE AREA ACROSS IA/MO WHILE MAINTAINING WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER
OUR AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING FIRST 5KFT
PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA...SO EXPECTING JUST SPOTTY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS
NORTHERN WI...TO THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST
WI.

THEN FOR TONIGHT...ARCTIC COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE REGION.
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SPILLING INTO THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH EXPECTED TO DROP OVERNIGHT
LOWS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 20S. IN ADDITION...DESPITE BEST PV-
ADVECTION FORCING STAYING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...STRONG 925-850MB
FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW FLAKES MAY ALSO BE SEEN NORTHEAST OF I-94
AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THINKING ANY DUSTING POTENTIAL WILL BE
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST WI/UPPER MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGHS SETTLES OVERHEAD. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 40-45 DEGREE RANGE.

MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION TAKES
PLACE ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL HELP TO
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE...BUT WINDS WILL PUT A
BITE IN IT MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE UPPER 30/LOWER 40S.

RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY LASTING INTO INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
AND A COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN
THE 50S AND IN THE 40S ON TUESDAY.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN WEDNESDAY OF AREAS NORTH OF I-
94 AS YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH DRIVEN BY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BRUSHES THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH OF I-94 AND
IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE REST OF THE ARX FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ABRUPTLY
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 30.21Z AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS INTO THE MIDDLE 20 KT
RANGE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS. SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL COVER THIS WITH VCSH FOR NOW. BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONT...BUT EXPECT CLEARING
CONDITIONS AFTER 31.05Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS



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