Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 282335
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
635 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY INSISTENT ON DROPPING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT
OF CANADA...SPINNING IT ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WED NIGHT-THU TIME
FRAME. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME VARIANCES IN TIMING AND
POSITIONING...WITH 12Z MODEL RUNS NOW FAVORING MOSTLY A THURSDAY
PASSAGE ACROSS IA. SOME QG CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE LAYERS WITH THIS
FEATURE...ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE 925-850 MB SFC...THE
BULK TRACKING ACROSS IA. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM HAVE THE SYSTEM BRING
AMPLE SATURATION WITH IT...AND LIGHT PCPN SEEMS PROBABLE AS A
RESULT. THIS SCENARIO COULD BE A WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN WITH LITTLE
IF ANY QPF KIND OF EVENT. WITH CONFIDENCE SHAKY ON WHERE THIS WEAK
FEATURE WILL SPIN...AND PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE WEAKER FEATURE...BUT
TAKE A MORE EASTERLY TRACK. THIS WILL BRING THE BRUNT OF ITS PCPN
CHANCES TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...BUT SOME AREAS-SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD MARCH SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN WI.
LOCALLY...THE CHANCES WILL MOSTLY LIE IN THE 1-94 CORRIDOR AND EAST
THU NIGHT. IF IT DOES MOVE IN...TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW TO MIX IN. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DROPPING A SFC HIGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVING IN ON SAT. A LOT OF COLD AIR ACCOMPANYING THE
HIGHS...WITH 850 MB TEMPS TUMBLING TO -8 C BY FRI MORNING. WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THU/FRI NIGHTS...RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL HELP TEMPS FALL OFF INTO THE 20S FOR FRI/SAT MORNINGS. IF YOU
STILL HAVE STUFF GROWING IN THE GARDEN...YOU WON/T BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.

TRICK-OR-TREATERS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO HAVE A COLD GO OF IT TO
RAKE IN THEIR CANDY HAULS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S EARLY IN
THE EVENING...WITH WINDS MAKING IT FEEL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
COLDER.

SOME SIGNALS THEN IN THE MODELS THAT 850-700MB WARMING WILL MOVE UP
THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS ON SUNDAY...WITH A PUSH OF 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. MOISTURE ISN/T DEEP...BUT ENOUGH INDICATED VIA
RH FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THAT SOME PCPN COULD BE GENERATED.
THIS LOOKS SIMILAR TO SEVERAL EVENTS OF THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS WITH
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING AND MOSTLY MID LEVEL SATURATION RESULTING IN
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. QPF IS SMALL TO NIL...BUT IT GETS STUFF
WET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE MVFR CLOUD DECK AND
WINDS INTO TOMORROW. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING A BIT THROUGH THE
DAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING BUT A MAJORITY OF THE OBSERVATIONS HAVE
BEEN MVFR AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
AT LEAST...POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY AT 20-30KTS
AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL BEFORE THE
GUSTS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALSO HELP TO
SCATTER OUT THE CLOUD DECK AS WELL.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...HALBACH



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