Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 310205
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
905 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS EVENING IS ON THE CHANGING CONDITIONS TAKING
PLACE AS A POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN. A LEAD SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE REGION AS OF 9PM WITH JUST SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP BEHIND IT WITH GUSTS NOW INTO
THE 20-30KT RANGE. PRECIPITATION-WISE...THE MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS POTENT
TROUGH WHICH HAS A TROP FOLD DOWN TO AROUND 700MB ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. THESE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY WEAK AND BRIEF WITH
VISIBILITY ONLY DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 3SM AT ITS LOWEST POINT.
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH...BUT IF THERE IS ANY
REGION THAT COULD SEE SOME OF THESE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...IT IS
WESTERN TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
WITH GUSTS STAYING UP INTO THE 20-35KT RANGE AND REMAINING BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON WINDY CONDITIONS AND COLDER AIR
ARRIVING TONIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. A BREEZY AND COLD
HALLOWEEN IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS AND
MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 20S AND THIS SAME AIRMASS IS HEADED OUR WAY.
850 COLD AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. PLAN ON WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO
20 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH AT TIMES. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALL FROM -1 C LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO TO AROUND -10 C
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
FOR FRIDAY TAKING A LOOK AT WHATS OCCURRING UPSTREAM. WHILE MOST
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF THE INTESTATE 94 CORRIDOR. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOW BELT
WILL SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH THE COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE...THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY NIGHT. PLAN ON LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER
TEENS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA. THE HIGH SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES  WARMING BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. A
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON  INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY/TROUGH PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY TAKING ANY LINGERING RAIN WITH IT. A FEW SNOW
FLAKES COULD MIX IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE THAT THE PRECIP WILL EXIT BEFORE THE
COLDER AIR  PUSHES IN. TEMPERATURES WONT CHANGE MUCH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WITH HIGHS RAINING FROM THE
MID 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA. ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR POSSIBLY
SNOW TO AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON A COLD FRONT THAT IS ABOUT TO PASS THROUGH
THE TAF SITES WHICH WILL BRING WINDS UP CONSIDERABLY ALONG WITH A
LOWERING CLOUD DECK. AT 00Z...THIS FRONT JUST SOUTH OF EAU CLAIRE
AND WAS DROPPING SOUTH FAIRLY QUICKLY. WINDS COME AROUND TO THE
NORTH AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ANG BEGIN GUSTING TO AROUND
15-20KTS. MOST OF THE CLOUD DECK IS VFR AT 3-5KFT...BUT THERE IS A
BAND OF 2-3KFT MVFR THAT IS IN IT WHICH COULD COME THROUGH THE TAF
SITES. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONG WINDS
CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING IN THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...HALBACH



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