Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 290452
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY INSISTENT ON DROPPING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT
OF CANADA...SPINNING IT ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WED NIGHT-THU TIME
FRAME. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME VARIANCES IN TIMING AND
POSITIONING...WITH 12Z MODEL RUNS NOW FAVORING MOSTLY A THURSDAY
PASSAGE ACROSS IA. SOME QG CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE LAYERS WITH THIS
FEATURE...ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE 925-850 MB SFC...THE
BULK TRACKING ACROSS IA. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM HAVE THE SYSTEM BRING
AMPLE SATURATION WITH IT...AND LIGHT PCPN SEEMS PROBABLE AS A
RESULT. THIS SCENARIO COULD BE A WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN WITH LITTLE
IF ANY QPF KIND OF EVENT. WITH CONFIDENCE SHAKY ON WHERE THIS WEAK
FEATURE WILL SPIN...AND PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE WEAKER FEATURE...BUT
TAKE A MORE EASTERLY TRACK. THIS WILL BRING THE BRUNT OF ITS PCPN
CHANCES TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...BUT SOME AREAS-SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD MARCH SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN WI.
LOCALLY...THE CHANCES WILL MOSTLY LIE IN THE 1-94 CORRIDOR AND EAST
THU NIGHT. IF IT DOES MOVE IN...TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW TO MIX IN. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DROPPING A SFC HIGH ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVING IN ON SAT. A LOT OF COLD AIR ACCOMPANYING THE
HIGHS...WITH 850 MB TEMPS TUMBLING TO -8 C BY FRI MORNING. WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THU/FRI NIGHTS...RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL HELP TEMPS FALL OFF INTO THE 20S FOR FRI/SAT MORNINGS. IF YOU
STILL HAVE STUFF GROWING IN THE GARDEN...YOU WON/T BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.

TRICK-OR-TREATERS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO HAVE A COLD GO OF IT TO
RAKE IN THEIR CANDY HAULS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S EARLY IN
THE EVENING...WITH WINDS MAKING IT FEEL ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
COLDER.

SOME SIGNALS THEN IN THE MODELS THAT 850-700MB WARMING WILL MOVE UP
THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS ON SUNDAY...WITH A PUSH OF 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. MOISTURE ISN/T DEEP...BUT ENOUGH INDICATED VIA
RH FIELDS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THAT SOME PCPN COULD BE GENERATED.
THIS LOOKS SIMILAR TO SEVERAL EVENTS OF THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS WITH
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING AND MOSTLY MID LEVEL SATURATION RESULTING IN
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. QPF IS SMALL TO NIL...BUT IT GETS STUFF
WET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE WITH THE MVFR CEILINGS THAT EXTEND
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MINNESOTA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
WISCONSIN. LSE HAS MAINLY BEEN VFR THIS EVENING BUT RECENTLY
DROPPED TO 2800FT AND COULD STAY THERE OR AT LEAST AROUND 3KFT
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RST HAS MAINLY BEEN MVFR BUT DID SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS NOW HANGING AROUND 3KFT AS WELL.
WINDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE AS WELL WITH GUSTS DOWN AROUND
20KTS OR LOWER. AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES IN TODAY...EXPECT
THAT CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE OR SCATTER OUT WITH WINDS STAYING LIGHT
INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...HALBACH



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