Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 231714
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1214 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Main forecast concerns are on temperatures and afternoon relative
humidity values today. Focus then turns to elevated fire weather
concerns Monday, especially across western into central Wisconsin.

A cold front will continue to sag south today across northern
Wisconsin/Minnesota. The main impact from the front across the
area will be cooler temperatures mainly north of the Interstate 94
corridor. There are actually two fronts to watch today. The cold
front edging in from the north and a backdoor cold front edging in
from the northeast. Plan on a wind shift with these fronts too
across northern and portions of central Wisconsin with a switch
to the north/northeast by mid to late afternoon. Otherwise, south
and southwest of these fronts plan on temperatures warming into
the 60s to lower 70s with westerly winds expected. The dry airmass
over the region and deep mixing will result in afternoon relative
humidity values falling into the lower to middle 20s, producing
some fire weather concerns. Again winds will be on the lighter
side today, but a little bit higher than yesterday, especially
across the open areas of southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

The frontal boundaries will merge and become a warm front late
tonight into Monday and lift northward as low pressure deepens
across South Dakota. A tightening pressure gradient will bring
strong gusty winds to the area later Monday morning into Monday
afternoon. Clouds will be on the increase as a shortwave tracks
toward the Upper Mississippi River Valley from the west. There
will be elevated fire weather weather concerns across western into
central Wisconsin on Monday due to the stronger winds and low
relative humidity. Plan on south winds of 15 to 17 mph across
these areas with gusts approaching 32 to 35 mph at times. These
winds combined with afternoon relative humidity values in the mid
to upper 20s will result in near critical fire weather conditions.
Further to the west across northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota
winds will be even stronger and we may see some gusts to around
40 mph. Slightly higher dew points and increasing cloud cover
across these areas should limit fire weather concerns . The cold
front then edges into the region from the west Monday night and
stalls. Since the front is edging into such a dry airmass and
upper level forcing is weak, not expecting to see much rain shower
activity across the local area. Will maintain low chances for
rain showers mainly north of the Interstate 90 corridor.

A trough then swings into the region Tuesday into Wednesday and
interacts with the boundary stalled out over the area. This will
bring increasing chances for rain showers from Tuesday into Tuesday
night. Much colder air then invades the region on Wednesday on the
back side of this system Wednesday into Thursday. Chances for rain
showers will continue during this timeframe a slow pressure
deepens over the western Great Lakes. Depending on how the system
evolves, we may see some snow mix in at times on the back side of
the low Wednesday night into Thursday morning. High temperatures
will struggle to get out of the 40s Wednesday into Thursday. The
active and cool weather pattern looks to continue right through
the weekend as troughing continues to dominate the central and
northern CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

High pressure will provide VFR ceilings and visibilities through
the period. The only thing that will be aviation significant will
be the gusty winds that will be developing after 24.16z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Low relative humidity is expected this afternoon with values
falling into the lower to upper 20s. Near critical fire weather
conditions are possible late Monday morning into Monday afternoon
across portions of western into central Wisconsin. This is due to
the combination of relative humidity values in the mid to upper
20s and south winds of 15 to 17 mph with gusts of 32 to 35 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Through Tuesday
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Minor flooding will continue along portions of the Black,
Trempealeau, and Yellow River in Wisconsin. The Black River at
Galesville has hit it`s crest and the Trempealeau River at Dodge
is expected to crest soon. The Yellow River at Necedah is expected
to crest later today.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wetenkamp
LONG TERM...Wetenkamp
AVIATION...Boyne
FIRE WEATHER...Wetenkamp
HYDROLOGY...Wetenkamp



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