Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 180351
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1051 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered snow showers and flurries continue today for mainly
  the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin. A localized quick
  dusting is expected this morning with any snow shower.

- Lake effect snow continues along the South Shore through
  Sunday night, ending late Monday morning. A Winter Weather
  Advisory continues for Iron County through Monday morning.
  Total accumulations of 4 to 8 inches, and locally to around 12
  inches are expected for northern Iron County.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions are possible on a daily
  basis into the middle of this week due to low humidities and
  breezy winds.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

We increased snow totals some tonight over the snow belt of Iron
County. Observations have been little help as KIWD hasn`t seen
low visibility so far. Spotters/law enforcement estimate 7 to
perhaps 9" so far in the snow belt. RAP soundings show an
inversion around 3300 feet with that area and a bit aloft in the
DGZ. We thought about going with a Winter Storm Warning for Iron
County but think the heaviest snow is rather localized. We
expect another 3 to 4" overnight with some locally higher
amounts possible. Totals in a few spots could go to a foot but
most of the area will be less. We`ll adjust as new information
comes in overnight if needed. The winds are expected to back
through the morning Monday which will bring the accumulating
snow to an end.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Scattered snow showers and flurries have continued today, with
lake effect snow showers along the South Shore. So far the
highest reports have been in the 3 to 4 inch range around
northern Iron county as of late morning, with up to 3 inches
along the Bayfield Peninsula. As expected today, the bits of
sunshine that work their way in between the snow showers, snow
has been compacting and melting even as it falls, and we may
have gotten more snowfall than is being measured. Tonight, a
ridge of high pressure should build into the region and cause
winds to finally diminish to less than 10 mph for most locations
by Monday morning. This will also bring in some drier air,
finally cutting off the snow showers and eventually the lake
effect snow by Monday morning. Clouds are also expected to
finally diminish from west to east, but it should not begin
until the ridge axis gets a little closer, during the morning
hours of Monday. Monday to remain chilly, with high temperatures
once again only in the 30s for most locations.

Monday into Tuesday we have a fairly potent shortwave that
dives out of Manitoba, which should bring another fast moving
round of light precipitation. There is not a lot of moisture
available, so we are not expecting much for precipitation, and
we may only see a dusting of snow, though up to an inch is
possible for the tip of the Arrowhead. Of more significance, may
be the stronger northwest winds behind the associated cold
front on Tuesday. Temperatures will still be on the chilly side
with highs only in the 30s to around 40, but the winds will push
wind chill values down into the 20s. Afternoon RH values should
drop into the 30 to 40 percent range as well, so with these RH
values and gusty winds, fire weather conditions will be a
concern. Wednesday will be even drier, so even with the lighter
winds, the fire weather conditions will be even more of a
concern.

There is increasing confidence in a shortwave that slides
across Minnesota and Wisconsin Thursday into Friday. This
shortwave could bring us a period of light snow Thursday through
Thursday night, with a 75% or greater probability of an inch or
more of snow by Friday morning. Most of this system is likely
to pass to the south of the forecast area, but it appears we
should get at least a little bit of precipitation out of it.

Model guidance continues to diverge heading into next weekend
and early the following week. There are signs of a stronger,
Colorado Low like low pressure system/cutoff low which has the
potential to bring significant precipitation to parts of the
Northland next Sunday into early next week. Ensembles show a
fairly strong signal for a strong upper low pressure system
moving across the CONUS early next week. However, with the
spread in the surface low tracks with this system, confidence in
precipitation amounts and placement is low.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Low VFR ceilings were occurring across the Northland early this
evening and will stick around for most through the night. Some
occasional flurries will be possible. There will be a
diminishing trend to the clouds from northwest to southeast
through the period. Some of the ceilings may dip back into MVFR
overnight. Lake effect snow will continue tonight into Monday
morning along the South Shore with MVFR/IFR conditions,
especially across the snow belt of Iron County. The lake effect
snow should diminish through the day Monday as winds back.

The gusty winds this evening will diminish overnight as high
pressure builds in. Winds will back through the day Monday and
increase in the afternoon. Low level wind shear may develop late
in the period or more so after 00Z due to a developing low level
jet.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 358 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Gusty northwest winds of 15 to around 20 knots with gusts of 25
to 30 knots this afternoon will continue into the evening before
finally diminishing overnight as a ridge of high pressure builds
into the area. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect until
early Monday morning, after which winds will be less than 20
knots Monday morning. Winds become southwest on Monday afternoon
and increase once again, which may produce another period of
hazardous conditions for small craft Monday afternoon and
evening. Winds switch to the northwest early Tuesday. Winds will
become strong and gusty for Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing
another period of hazardous conditions to the lake. There is a
potential (~20%) for gale conditions Tuesday night along the
North Shore. Winds remain northwest but diminish for Wednesday
night into Thursday.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CDT Monday for WIZ004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT Monday for LSZ121-140>148-
     150.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Melde
DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...Melde
MARINE...LE


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