Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 261213

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
713 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Issued at 713 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Update for the new 12Z Aviation Discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Warmer weather will finally work its way into the area today and
tomorrow, as the upper low that has kept us in cool northwest flow
will move slowly east of the area. Today the trough will be far
enough east to allow a surface ridge to slide down to southwestern
Minnesota by this afternoon. The eastern forecast area will still
have northwest flow and chances for showers and a few
thunderstorms, but the western forecast area will have more
sunshine and less of a chance for precipitation. High temperatures
today to be significantly warmer than yesterday, with most areas
getting into the middle 60s to around 70. This morning we have a
few locations in the upper 30s, but some modification of the
airmass today and tonight should keep temperatures in the 40s most
locations overnight tonight, despite the ridge shifting over the
top of the forecast area. Tuesday the ridge axis shifts to over
and east of the forecast area, allowing winds to finally turn more
southwesterly by afternoon. We will also be looking at more
sunshine and with warm air advection beginning to set up aloft,
temperatures will rise into the 70s for most locations. The day
should start out cloud free, but the strong warm air advection due
to push in Tuesday night will produce increasing high clouds
during the afternoon hours, and should keep us from getting much
warmer than those 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 438 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Summary: Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely
across the Northland from Tuesday night through the weekend. A few
storms may be strong to severe Wednesday afternoon and evening
over southern portions of the CWA.

The Northern Plains upper level ridge will flatten Tuesday night
and Wednesday as a shortwave trough moves across the Dakotas and
into the Upper Midwest. Southerly flow in the low and mid-levels
ahead of the approaching trough will pump additional moisture and
warmth into the Northland setting the stage for several rounds of
showers and thunderstorms. Guidance is in better agreement this
morning, but has trended the surface low farther south than
earlier runs. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to move into
the Northland Tuesday night and diminish in coverage and intensity
early Wednesday. Showers and storms should redevelop Wednesday
afternoon as the surface low advances eastward to our south. That
southerly track will limit the threat of strong to severe storms
to the far southern portions of the CWA. There`s also a chance
rain and isolated thunderstorms from the overnight convection
Tuesday night may continue and drift south during the day
Wednesday, further reducing the severe weather risk. There will be
ample moisture for moderate to heavy rain with the storms and WPC
has included areas along the North Shore to Duluth and all of
northwest Wisconsin in a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall.

The upper level trough will slowly push eastward on Thursday.
Rain chances will decrease from west to east Thursday afternoon
and evening. Model solutions begin to diverge Thursday evening
with the handling of the next upper trough moving toward the Upper
Midwest. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms seem likely
from late Thursday night through the weekend, but timing and
location of the precipitation varies from model to model. A blend
of the deterministic guidance yields low "chance" POPs at most,
and we have elected to stick close to the blend for now.

With active weather continuing and a quasi-zonal to northwesterly
flow pattern aloft, temperatures will continue to trend near to
below normal through the long term.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 713 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

The persistent upper trough which has loitered over the region
for the past several days will move out of the area today. The
area of light rain associated with a compact upper low over
northern Wisconsin will drift southeastward this morning. Expect
rain showers to end at HYR by 14Z. Cyclonic flow aloft and
continued cool air advection in the mid-levels will support
scattered rain showers and a few isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon. Moisture is somewhat limited, so showers will be very
light. Winds will become gusty until this evening. Areas of fog
are not out of the question tonight. With the deep mixing today
and a drier airmass in general, confidence in fog development is
low. Should fog develop, HYR is most likely to see reduced
visibility after 27.08Z.


DLH  68  49  74  54 /  40   0   0  50
INL  68  47  74  55 /  10   0  10  40
BRD  69  47  76  59 /   0   0   0  60
HYR  68  46  76  56 /  70  20   0  30
ASX  68  49  76  54 / 100  10  10  30




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