Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 260809
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
309 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS DESCENDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE COOL AND DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY AS OF 08Z/3AM CDT AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THIS MORNING. WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH THE
WINDOW FOR THE BEST LAKE EFFECT ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CLOSING THIS
AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAVE DECIDED TO
DECREASE SNOW TOTALS BY A BIT. WILL LIKELY LET THE CURRENT ADVISORY
FOR IRON COUNTY RUN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...SINCE REVISED
LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES IS STILL WITHIN THE
ADVISORY CRITERIA. SNOWFALL TAPERS OFF THIS AFTERNOON BUT COULD SEE
ANOTHER PULSE OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER
FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST RESULTING IN A LONGER FETCH...BUT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THIS EVENING WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE AN INCH OR TWO.
ADDED SOME GENEROUS FLURRIES INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BASED
OFF SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE...BUT
GENERALLY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.

ELSEWHERE TODAY...DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING SUNNY
THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. COOLER...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND COLD. NEAR CALM WINDS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS...WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO IN THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD.

FRIDAY...SUNNY AND DRY. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY BUT
OTHERWISE SUNNY. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10
MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD DROP TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE TO WEAK
WINDS. TEMPERATURES COOL...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...EXCEPT
ALONG THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD A
WESTERN RIDGE PERSISTING. THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ZONAL
LATE IN THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE PERIOD BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHLAND.

A DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE WILL CAUSE DRY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WE LOWERED TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE THICKENING
CLOUDS AS MID LEVEL WAA DEVELOPS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL START TO IMPACT
THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THE MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT BRINGING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH...BUT ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DETAILS OF TIMING AND AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. WE DID INCREASE POPS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND MAY HAVE TO FURTHER. A MIX OF SNOW AND
RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF
HIGHWAY 53.

WEAKER SYSTEMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD...AND INITIALLY LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL WILL ALLOW GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND MVFR TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NIGHT. DRIER CANADIAN AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR CEILINGS TO LIFT AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
SCATTERED BY LATE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AROUND 3-4 KFT WILL LINGER IN
THE KHYR AREA AS NORTHERLY WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR KEEP RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  28  10  31  17 /  10   0   0   0
INL  25   7  35  16 /  10   0   0  10
BRD  33  12  36  19 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  31  10  34  14 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  28  12  30  13 /  30  40  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR WIZ004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
     145>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GRANING/MELDE






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