Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 280246
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
946 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

00Z KINL SOUNDING WAS VERY DRY AND RAP SOUNDINGS HAVE
SHOWN VERY DRY AIR PRESENT BELOW 700 MB THIS EVENING. DESPITE
THIS DRY AIR...LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES...FROM FAR SOUTHERN CROW WING COUNTY INTO THE SIREN AREA AND
POINTS SOUTHEAST. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE
UPPER LOW IN WESTERN IOWA/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOME LOW LEVEL FGEN
WERE AIDING IN PRODUCING THE RAIN. THE FGEN IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WE ADJUSTED POPS OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREA
TONIGHT...AND MIX IN SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT AS WETBULB TEMPERATURES
DROP. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

AT 330 PM...SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES VARIED CONSIDERABLY...WITH MID 50S IN MANY INLAND
LOCATIONS...AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NEAR THE SHORES OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. AT 333
PM...GUSTS WERE 35 KNOTS AT SKY HARBOR IN DULUTH.

THE NORTHLAND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATING TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY BRING A BIT OF AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
SOME OF THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS SPILLING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...SO
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS IN THAT AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 20S NORTH AND 30S SOUTH. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S INLAND AND 30S AND 40S LAKESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE NORTHLAND. 00Z FRIDAY STARTS OUT WITH A 500MB
LOW DIGGING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. THIS LEAVES QUIET FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND... AND WILL ALLOW SFC DISTURBANCES TO PASS WELL TO OUR
SOUTH AS BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM
THE HUDSON BAY. A DRY FORECAST IS IN THE MIX FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE PLACEMENT OF THE BROAD SFC HIGH WILL CREATE CLOCKWISE
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES... MEANING PROLONGED CHILLY EASTERLY FLOW
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NEAR THE LAKE AND
APPROACHING 60 FARTHER INLAND.

THE PATTERN CHANGES MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD AND ECMWF/GFS/DGEX INDICATE A CANADIAN DISTURBANCE
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHLAND. JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN AT
THIS TIME FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND. THE GOOD NEWS IS... A WARM
UP IS IN SIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY... WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 70 BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF CYCLE. MAIN
CONCERN DURING THE PERIOD IS GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE HIGH BUILDING OVER NORTH CENTRAL
CANADA...AND THE LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARDS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY AS MIXED
LAYER PERSISTS OVERNIGHT AT KDLH/KBRD/KHYR. WITH THE WEAKER
PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER NORTH. THINK THAT KHIB/KINL WILL SEE
THE MIXED LAYER DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...PER THE LATEST NAM/DLHWRF.
WINDS WILL LESSEN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  44  32  51 /   0  10   0   0
INL  30  54  35  56 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  35  51  34  58 /  30  20   0   0
HYR  32  51  31  58 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  31  44  32  51 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ143>146.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ141-
     142-147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...WL



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