Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 221958
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
258 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT...SLIDING EAST
ON TUESDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT...WITH SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO IMPACT THE REGION.

A SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO PASS THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT AND
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SOME FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MOST AREAS FROM 69
TO 74.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

OVERALL QUIET EXTENDED FORECAST WITH PREVAILING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. FOCUS ON A SHORT WAVE/CLOSED H50 LOW THAT TRANSLATES
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY...THEN WEAKENS/ELONGATES AS IT SHIFTS
EAST OVER THE NORTHLAND WED/WED NIGHT.  ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT
PRODUCING MUCH QPF OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH THIS WAVE...HAVE
CONTINUED CARRYING BROADBRUSH SCHC POPS WED/WED EVENING DUE TO THE
HIGH PWATS /IN EXCESS OF AN INCH/ AND SUFFICIENT FORCING TO PRODUCE
AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWERS.

AS THE WAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD OVER THE DAKOTAS...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN FLOW WITH INCREASING
H85/H70 TEMPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE BROAD AREA OF
RIDGING SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS
A LONG WAVE TROUGH MAKES LANDFALL IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THIS
TIME...TEMPERATURES THURS/FRIDAY/SATURDAY LOOK TO RUN ON THE ORDER
OF 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF SEPT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PATCHY LIGHT
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  72  52  69 /   0   0   0  10
INL  42  73  51  69 /   0   0   0  30
BRD  47  72  54  70 /   0  10  10  10
HYR  39  70  50  70 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  45  71  50  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING





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