Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 311200
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
600 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE FROM THE TWIN PORTS TO ASHLAND TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ALSO
CONCERNED ABOUT THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE
TONIGHT/SUN MORNING.

UPPER SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH ARE CURRENTLY MOVING NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH NW WINDS PICKING UP AND A
FAIRLY COLD AIR MASS FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOWLY FALLING OR REMAINING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN NE MN AND INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN NW WI. THE CAA ALOFT WILL AID IN THE
CONTINUOUS CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY WITH A
SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF LAKE SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE SNOW BELT
REGION OF NRN WI. ONLY LIGHT OR TRACE AMTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED
TODAY.

THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE UPON THE NORTHLAND
FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS -15 TO -25 DEG C MOVING
INTO THE BORDERLAND AREA AND THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT OVER THE NRN COUNTIES TONIGHT AND ALLOW SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S BELOW
ZERO...WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS PRODUCING WIND CHILLS BELOW -30 F.
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

AS THIS COLD AIR MASS DROPS IN AND A POTENT WINTER STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS EWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES
AREA TONIGHT...FAVORABLE N/NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND BEGIN TO FORM LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THE TWIN PORTS EWD TO ASHLAND THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. HIGHER AMTS ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION IF A LAKE BAND SETS UP OVER THE SAME AREA FOR
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST LATE SUN AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH REGARDS TO STRONG SYSTEMS
PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. IT WILL MOSTLY BE COLD WITH HIGHS
FROM 5 TO NEARLY 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY FOR MOST AREAS AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN
FOR MONDAY. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER MONDAY BUT LEFT THE MENTION OF
SNOW OUT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DRY LOW LAYER THAT
SUPPORTS NO MENTION SNOW ATTM.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALL THE MODELS DO
HAVE A SOLUTION FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OUT
OF THE NORTHLAND. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THE COLDER AIR AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF SOME LAKE EFFECT CHANCES...WE WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT WE MAY NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ON FRIDAY...BUT
WE WILL WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE RAP HAS A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CLOUD TRENDS...AND GRADUALLY SHOWS
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER THROUGH
THE DAY TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND WILL CAUSE THE CLOUDS TO LINGER
LONGER OVER ALL BUT KINL. WE DID DELAY THE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT
ALL TAF SITES.

AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHEAST...LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND
AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS KHYR/KDLH TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL BE
QUITE DRY...BUT THE FETCH IS LONG AND LOW LEVEL STABILITY LOW
WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -18C ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. WE
MAY NEED TO LOWER VSBYS AT KDLH WITH LATER UPDATES...BUT THAT WILL
BE A SHORTER TERM ISSUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  16  -1   8  -8 /  10  30  10   0
INL   5 -19   1 -19 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  18  -1   8  -5 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  21   3  10 -11 /  10  10  10   0
ASX  20   6   9  -7 /  30  60  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE






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