Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 152114
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
414 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE SPRING
STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHLAND LATE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
THIS STORM...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS
NE/N-CENTRAL MN AND NW WI...AND AN EMBEDDED CORRIDOR OF +12
INCHES FROM AROUND HINCKLEY TO COPPER FALLS STATE PARK. THE
STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE FELT ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE...WHERE SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL REACH 20-30 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FROM EARLY WED MORNING THROUGH THUR MORNING. CHECK THE LATEST
WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE FOR DETAILS CONCERNING THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THESE HEADLINES.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP SEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND
ROTATE EWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW AND INTERACT WITH A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW...STRONG WAA AND
ROBUST MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTH TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION. THE AMT OF MESOSCALE FORCING FROM STRONG MID-
LEVEL F-GEN WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF ENHANCE LIFT WITHIN THE
FAVORABLE DGZ AND PRODUCE HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER
HOUR. THIS PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM THE LATE
MORNING PERIOD THROUGH THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. ROAD
CREWS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME KEEPING UP WITH THE RAPIDLY
ACCUMULATING SNOW.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH
THE HEAVY SNOW. LATEST NAM AND GFS BOTH INDICATE AN AREA OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIOD...WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW EPISODES OF THUNDER ACROSS NW
WI.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.  WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH
SOLUTION SEEMINGLY THE TREND ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS..WE EXPECT
FAIRLY DECENT SNOW TO STILL BE FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER
TO THIRD OF THE DULUTH CWA. NOSE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH LEADING EDGE OF INSTABILITY RESERVOIR ALOFT TO THE SOUTH
/REVEALED BY BOTH CAPE AND EPV* CROSS SECTIONS/ AND EXTREMELY
TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PUSH CLOSE TO PRICE COUNTY WED
EVENING..WHICH SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST MODERATE PRECIP RATES TO
PERSIST. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL ON PTYPE OVER PRICE
COUNTY..SOUNDING TAKEN AT FACE VALUE SUGGEST A SNOW/SLEET MIX IS
POSSIBLE..BUT HEAVY PRECIP RATES AND DIABATIC COOLING EFFECTS
COULD RESULT IN ALL/MOSTLY SNOW. VERY STRONG ENE GRADIENT TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE LOW CENTER WILL ALSO RESULT IN STRONG WINDS
AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW..ALONG WITH GALES NEAR THE SW TIP OF LK
SUPERIOR.

STORM SHOULD WIND DOWN LATE WED NIGHT..WITH SNOW ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST AND WINDS STARTING TO DECREASE. THURSDAY WILL STILL BE
SOMEWHAT CHILLY AND BLUSTERY AS THE SECONDARY MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROF TRAVERSES THE AREA..BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME SUN IN
MOST AREAS. VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD ALSO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

BEYOND THURSDAY..A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE 7 DAY PERIOD..WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FEW CONCERNS FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THIS AVIATION FORECAST
CYCLE. SURFACE RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.
A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 4-6 KFT WILL AFFECT KHYR THRU
ROUGHLY 21Z.

RAPIDLY APPROACHING WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE AREA
06-12Z TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY AND STEADILY
INCREASING IN SPEED BY WED MORNING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY
THICKEN WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AS WELL. TIMING OF THE ONSET OF
SNOW IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE..BUT WE STILL
EXPECT A DETERIORATION TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KBRD 11-12Z AND
12-13Z AT KHYR. BOTH OF THOSE TAF SITES SHOULD SEE A FURTHER
LOWERING TO IFR IN MDT/HVY SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
KDLH SHOULD ALSO COME DOWN INTO MVFR RANGE WED MORNING WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING..ALONG WITH VERY STRONG AND GUSTY EAST WINDS
DEVELOPING OFF LK SUPERIOR BY 18Z WED. KINL/KHIB WILL SEE THE
GUSTY EAST WINDS..BUT ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD HOLD OFF AT KHIB UNTIL
AFTER 18Z..AND IT IS POSSIBLE KHIB/KINL MAY NOT SEE MUCH FROM THIS
STORM AT ALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  22  29  19  36 /  60 100  60  20
INL  15  34  14  37 /  10  10  20  10
BRD  26  31  21  38 /  80  80  30  10
HYR  21  31  24  38 /  70 100  80  20
ASX  20  31  23  36 /  50 100  80  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR MNZ034-036-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM CDT
     THURSDAY FOR MNZ012-019-021.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR MNZ020-037.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR MNZ033-035.

WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR WIZ006.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR WIZ001>004-007>009.

LS...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     LSZ143>145.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR LSZ140>142.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MILLER
MARINE...MILLER







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