Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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863
FXUS63 KDLH 251118
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
618 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

The cold front has now progressed into northwest Wisconsin this
morning, having moved slowly across northern Minnesota in the last
24 hours.  This front is accompanied by a few showers and while
there are no thunderstorms now, there is some potential for storms
with some weak instability in the area.  There is not very much
activity along the front in our area, but from southern Minnesota
south into Iowa and Nebraska there is a large area of showers and
isolated thunder that is moving northeast along the boundary.  It is
associated with a band of frontogenesis and isentropic lift and
broader scale lift that is going to slowly lift north towards the
northland today, and then affect the area tonight and most of
Tuesday as well.  This is going to bring much more fall like weather
to the area, and high temperatures today will be significantly
cooler than what we had over the weekend, in some cases by as
much as 20 degrees cooler. This cooling trend continues into
Tuesday as well, with highs only in the 50s and 60s vs the 70s and
80s of the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Fall-like weather returns mid week into the weekend with a few low
chances for light rain showers, but overall a much drier weather
pattern compared to the wet weather pattern that has persisted since
last week.

On the synoptic scale a longwave mid/upper level ridge will develop
over the Great Basin region mid week, becoming centered over the
Rockies on Thursday and gradually shifting eastward towards the
Great Lakes region over the weekend. This ridging will support
northwest flow aloft for much of the long term forecast period
leading to cooler temperatures and a chance for rain Thursday due to
a mid-level shortwave trough approaching from the northwest. Temps
aloft will be cooler which may support steep enough mid-level lapse
rates to result in isolated thunderstorms producing small hail.
Broad area of high pressure builds in across the Midwest late-week
in response to the approaching mid/upper level ridge which should
result in clearing skies. Lows as cold as the low 30s on Friday
night, mainly across inland areas of the Minnesota Arrowhead.

Over the weekend high pressure builds eastward resulting in
southerly flow returning to the Upper Midwest and mainly sunny skies
on Saturday. An approaching warm front from the west will result in
increasing clouds and a chance for rain on Sunday. Highs in the
low/mid 60s over the weekend, which is slightly above normal for
this time of year. Saturday will be an absolutely spectacular day to
get out and check out the fall colors as they reach their peak!

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

IFR ceilings are expected to improve to MVFR this afternoon as
precipitation activity temporarily wanes. Tonight, IFR/LIFR
ceilings return as a broad area of light/moderate rain builds from
south to north across the region. Northwest winds today around
5-10 knots turnings north to northeasterly tonight, with speeds
generally light except at DLH where strong winds off Lake Superior
will result in 10-15 knot east-northeast winds persisting
overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  51  55  45 /  70  80  80  20
INL  54  46  52  42 /  10  80  80  40
BRD  58  50  56  43 /  60  80  60  10
HYR  70  56  64  45 /  50  60  60  20
ASX  67  53  62  46 /  60  70  70  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM



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