Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 011749
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1249 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1004 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM. LOWERED TEMPERATURES TODAY
2-4 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. CLOUD COVER AND
PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S. ALSO...GOT RID OF MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING AS MOST OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STRATIFORM THROUGH NOON. WILL ALSO RE-EVALUATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. NOT SEEING MUCH IN TERMS OF
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND INSTABILITY ON THE MAJORITY OF SHORT TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE. ADDED MENTION OF FOG BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND
PERSISTING AND SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT/THUR
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING WAS CAUSING SE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST. THE NORTHLAND IS EXPECTED TO SEE A SURGE OF
MOISTURE NORTHWARDS INTO THE REGION TODAY WHICH WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OF ABOUT A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OVER THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO
OVER 1 INCH AND COULD REACH UP TO 1.25 INCHES...SUBSTANTIAL GIVEN
ITS EARLY OCTOBER. THE THREAT OF THUNDER IS VERY LOW...BUT THE
MODELS INDICATE THERE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WHICH COULD MANAGE TO PRODUCE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER. THEREFORE...LEFT ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. A TROUGH/COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH
CLEARING AND SOLAR HEATING OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW THIS FRONT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DID NOT HAVE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ADDED OVER THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST MODELS CAME DOWN A BIT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY...LIKELY IN PART DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE LOW TO UPPER
50S...BUT LOWER 60S ARE LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA WHEN
IT AS LONG AS IT CLEARS UP A BIT IN THE WEST.

THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AXIS OF THE BEST 850 HPA MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE
WILL BE PARTIAL CLEARING OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.

THURSDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE DRY...BUT A SURFACE LOW IN THE
PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NNE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE NORTHLAND THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL DEVELOP
INTO A DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW AND BE LOCATED IN FAR NORTHERN
ONTARIO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT IN FAR WESTERN
MINNESOTA AND A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO
THE UPPER PENINSULA/EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY.
THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE LOW THAN THE GFS. RAIN WILL
INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE HIGH CHANCES FOR
RAIN FOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY AS WELL AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES
THROUGH.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT REGARDING PRECIP
COVERAGE AND TYPE. THE NAM HAS THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH AND IS MUCH WETTER VERSUS THE OTHER MODELS. THE ECMWF IS
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAN THE GEM/GFS BUT IS ALSO
FURTHER EAST. WE USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOVING IN LATER
FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE A MENTION OF SNOW
SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS THAT HAVE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE ARROWHEAD AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
ACROSS IRON/ASHLAND/NORTHERN PRICE COUNTIES. THE ECMWF IS WARMER
THAN THE GFS AND NAM SO THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AS WE REMAIN IN A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID FORTIES TO AROUND FIFTY AND
BE FROM 40 TO 50 SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY
ADDING TO THE CHILL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN WARM SLIGHTLY INTO THE FIFTIES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH... LOWERING
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITES TO MAINLY IFR CATEGORIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED. AS THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER MOVES FURTHER ACROSS CANADA TOMORROW MORNING... PRESSURES
WILL RISE AND CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND TO VFR MAINLY
AROUND 15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  50  61  46 /  90  20  20  60
INL  58  47  60  43 /  20  20  10  60
BRD  57  48  62  41 /  20  20  40  50
HYR  55  52  64  45 /  90  30  60  90
ASX  54  52  63  47 /  90  50  30  90

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE/MCLOVIN








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