Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 282345
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
645 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A FAIRLY STRONG SPRING
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  AHEAD OF THE STORM BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP...WITH DEEP MIXING TO
NEARLY 850MB AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.  OF NOTE...GRAND MARAIS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE ARE
STILL IN THE MID 30S AS THE SOUTH WINDS ARE COMING ACROSS THE COLD
LAKE BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE.  TONIGHT...AS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE AN AREA OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AT 850MB...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND EVEN SOME
INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SWEEP OUR
DIRECTION...THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY THE TIME
IT GETS INTO THE CWA...THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL FAIRLY STEEP.  THIS WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVEL UP PRETTY WARM...AND WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. WE HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN
AND RAIN DURING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AND THE TONGUE OF WARM
AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA.  DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WE LOSE THE WARM
AIR ALOFT...BUT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES GET BACK ABOVE FREEZING AND
WE GO BACK TO ALL RAIN AS THE EVENT ENDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER TROF DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE SFC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER IRON COUNTY
WI IN THE EVENING DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING TROF. THE
SFC RIDGE HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN TO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW CENTER AND QPF
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. USED THE WPC QPF AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
MATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
A VIGOROUS VORT MAX FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SFC LOW CENTER AND CARVES OUT
AN AREA OF PCPN FROM INL TO PORT WING TO NEAR PBH. SHOULD SEE RAIN
IN THE EVENING. THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHERE
CAA LEADS TO A PROFILE SUPPORTING SNOW. THE PCPN CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW LATE EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE FROM PORT WING TO HURLEY WI
WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE. MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW OVER THE
ARROWHEAD. ON TUESDAY...ONE MORE CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY CLIPS
THE ARROWHEAD IN THE MORNING AND HAVE LEFT POPS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGING RETURNS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SFC LOW GETS ORGANIZED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER PUSHING
ITS FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW NEAR CKC. THE RAIN PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
DIMINISH FROM SW TO E. ON THURSDAY...THE LOW TRAVELS INTO NW ONTARIO
WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW.
SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A GOOD SHOT OF CAA AND A NW
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MAY LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

STRONG WAA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE
AND COLD FRONT ALL COMBINING TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION. A
STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL OCCUR CREATING LLWS AT ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT THEN LOWER FURTHER
TO MVFR WITH SPOTTY IFR AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH RAIN THE MAIN TYPE...BUT SOME
SLEET...SNOW...AND EVEN FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INCLUDING THE ARROWHEAD AND OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN WILL BE MOST PRONE TO A WINTRY PRECIP.

THE LATEST HERR SUGGESTS TWO MAIN WAVES OF PRECIP WITH A BREAK
BETWEEN. WE WILL REFINE THE TIMING IN WITH FUTURE UPDATES AS
TRENDS BECOME CLEARER.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND THEY WILL BE STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  44  28  50 /  90 100  10  30
INL  37  43  27  49 / 100  80  10  40
BRD  36  47  31  57 /  80  70  10  20
HYR  31  46  28  52 /  80 100  10  20
ASX  34  46  30  51 /  50 100  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE





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