Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 262316
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
616 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Late this afternoon and early this evening: The scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms across much of the Northland, amidst
the cool and breezy northwest flow, will gradually dissipate with
the setting sun. There may be pea size hail with the strongest
storms, as confirmed by a couple reports earlier today.

Tonight: Clear skies and very light winds speeds will develop as a
surface ridge axis moves through the Northland from west to east.
The low dew point temperatures from this afternoon, from the upper
30s to middle 40s, and the expected radiational cooling suggest
temperatures could make a run for that range of temperatures
overnight. Leaned on the coldest model guidance, such as the
consensus of the GFS and NAM MOS guidance. The forecast lows are
in the lower to middle 40s.

Tuesday: The ridge axis will exit east, and there will be lowering
pressure from the west. There will be mostly sunny skies and
breezy south-southwest flow by the afternoon. Leaned on the warmer
model guidance, such as the bias-corrected consensus of the GFS
and NAM MOS. Highs should be in the middle 70s. Several models,
including the GFS, NAM, regional Canadian, and WRF models suggest
an approaching shortwave from the Dakotas could trigger some very
late afternoon or early evening showers and storms near the far
southwest forecast, west of Brainerd. However, for the most part,
the threat of showers and storms will generally hold off until
later Tuesday night when the low pressure to the west further
advances towards the Northland.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

An area of low pressure in the Dakotas will move eastward into
the Red River Valley by late Tuesday night, along with an upper
level shortwave moving across the upper Midwest/south central
Canada. Abundant moisture will lift rapidly northward ahead of the
system, as a strong LLJ develops across the central states. The
highest precipitable water values are forecast to be south of our
CWA, although we should see PWAT values on the order of 1.5 to as
much as 1.75 inches from late Tuesday night through late Wednesday
night. Have increased POP`s considerably for much of this period,
to the categorical range. Based on the high precipitable water
values and strong forcing, we could see locally heavy rainfall
across the Northland Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Day2 QPF
from WPC forecasts around an inch and a half of rainfall at Duluth
by 00Z Thursday. A few showers and thunderstorms could linger
into Thursday across the northeast half of the CWA, before the
next shortwave starts to impact the region on Thursday night. The
12Z ECMWF and GFS do show some differences with this system, but
in terms of sensible weather, they both bring a fairly good chance
of showers/storms to the region late Thursday night and Friday,
before pulling off to the east of the CWA Saturday night. High
temperatures throughout the period will range from the 60s to 70s.
The warmest day will likely be next Monday, with highs well into
the 70s. Lows will generally be in the 50s, with few exceptions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Isolated to scattered showers will continue to drift past
HIB/DLH/HYR until near sunset, then end with the loss of diurnal
heating. VFR is forecast. Gusty surface winds are expected to
develop by BRD around 18Z when mixing of the low level winds to
the surface is likely to occur.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  74  54  63 /  10   0  40  80
INL  43  75  55  66 /   0   0  40  80
BRD  45  76  59  71 /   0  10  60  80
HYR  41  76  56  69 /  20   0  50  80
ASX  47  76  54  67 /  10   0  40  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...GSF



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