Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 290546
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1246 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WE MADE SOME SMALL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. PRECIP TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX OCCURRING OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AND OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. PORTIONS OF THOSE
AREAS MAY START OUT AS MAINLY FROZEN PRECIP. WE DID ADD A BIT MORE
FREEZING RAIN OVER THE ARROWHEAD LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

WE ADJUSTED TEMPS SOME AS WELL BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. KCKC HAS
DROPPED TO 25F AND KBFW TO 30 AS OF 01Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VERY ACTIVE AS A FAIRLY STRONG SPRING
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  AHEAD OF THE STORM BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP...WITH DEEP MIXING TO
NEARLY 850MB AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.  OF NOTE...GRAND MARAIS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE ARE
STILL IN THE MID 30S AS THE SOUTH WINDS ARE COMING ACROSS THE COLD
LAKE BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE.  TONIGHT...AS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE AN AREA OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AT 850MB...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND EVEN SOME
INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SWEEP OUR
DIRECTION...THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY THE TIME
IT GETS INTO THE CWA...THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL FAIRLY STEEP.  THIS WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVEL UP PRETTY WARM...AND WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. WE HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN
AND RAIN DURING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AND THE TONGUE OF WARM
AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA.  DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WE LOSE THE WARM
AIR ALOFT...BUT THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES GET BACK ABOVE FREEZING AND
WE GO BACK TO ALL RAIN AS THE EVENT ENDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER TROF DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE SFC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER IRON COUNTY
WI IN THE EVENING DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING TROF. THE
SFC RIDGE HANGS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN TO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW CENTER AND QPF
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. USED THE WPC QPF AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
MATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN.
A VIGOROUS VORT MAX FOLLOWS BEHIND THE SFC LOW CENTER AND CARVES OUT
AN AREA OF PCPN FROM INL TO PORT WING TO NEAR PBH. SHOULD SEE RAIN
IN THE EVENING. THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHERE
CAA LEADS TO A PROFILE SUPPORTING SNOW. THE PCPN CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW LATE EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE FROM PORT WING TO HURLEY WI
WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE. MAY SEE AN INCH OF SNOW OVER THE
ARROWHEAD. ON TUESDAY...ONE MORE CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY CLIPS
THE ARROWHEAD IN THE MORNING AND HAVE LEFT POPS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...SFC RIDGING RETURNS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SFC LOW GETS ORGANIZED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER PUSHING
ITS FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW NEAR CKC. THE RAIN PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
DIMINISH FROM SW TO E. ON THURSDAY...THE LOW TRAVELS INTO NW ONTARIO
WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW.
SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A GOOD SHOT OF CAA AND A NW
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MAY LEAD TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ALL PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WAA MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT AS A LOW AND COLD FRONT BRING PRECIPITATION IN FROM THE
WEST. A SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE LLWS AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS THE NIGHT GOES ON AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR. SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AS PRECIP MOVES IN. PRECIP TYPE STILL AN ISSUE WHERE
SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. FAR NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ARE THE MOST PRONE TO WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. KBRD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL RAIN.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD END DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING AT ALL TAF
SITES. IT WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...AND ONCE
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE WEST
AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTHWEST.

WILL RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
EXITS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  28  50  32  49 /  10  30  10  10
INL  27  49  30  50 /  10  40  30  10
BRD  31  57  34  56 /  10  20  10   0
HYR  28  52  32  52 /  10  20  10  10
ASX  30  51  31  48 /  10  20  30  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GRANING






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